Could JetBlue be next?

[scarlet]

WN best suited for Hawaiian....Asia routes ! Priceless

 

[Dan Roman]

WN best suited for Hawaiian....Asia routes ! Priceless

That's been thoroughly discounted elsewhere, but......given SWA's track record in mergers they wouldn't be allowed to try anything like that in Hawaii. In addition, having a relatively small Intl AirBus hub in the middle of the Pacific is about as far from their current business plan as you could get. The SWA model simply would not work trying to do what Hawaiian is successfully doing in Hawaii.

 

[waveflyer]

Nice flame Dan- what mechanism in Hawaii "wouldn't ALLOW it"?

 

[Dan Roman]

Nice flame Dan- what mechanism in Hawaii "wouldn't ALLOW it"?

Actually I was answering to scarlets "flame". The uproar in Hawaii if SWA thought they could "takeover" Hawaiian would be huge to say the least. They would have to battle a public and political sentiment that would be far beyond what you would expect. I'm just scratching the surface when I make that comment.
The biggest argument against it though is the fact that the Asia market doesn't fit SWA at all and having a relatively small AirBus hub in the middle of the Pacific flying to Asia, Australia and NZ would drain SWA so fast your head would spin. A lot of our traffic is a result of the many alliances we have and the fact that we are "Hawaiian" flying to Hawaii, that would all go away. Additionally, DAL and UAL would kill a SWA attempt at trying to break into Asia by buying Hawaiian. We can only compete in the market because we are "Hawaiian", SWA would have a much more difficult time here.

 

[Dan Roman]

Of course if you did try and pull the crap you did with AirTran and threatened to operate us seperately we would all certainly support that!

 

[waveflyer]

Haha-
Just know your history Dan-

I know it's different, but many, many employees have counted on community support that was loud, confident, boisterous, for a time, but ultimately not there-

So...you say more than that though- you say it wouldn't be "allowed"
By who? By what?

 

[Dan Roman]

Haha-
Just know your history Dan-

I know it's different, but many, many employees have counted on community support that was loud, confident, boisterous, for a time, but ultimately not there-

So...you say more than that though- you say it wouldn't be "allowed"
By who? By what?

Circumstances, trust me, the support against it would be here and no matter what the outcome, it simply would not be possible for SWA to takeover Hawaiian in any semblance of a smooth transition.
You guys are good at what you do, we are good at what we do. That doesn't mean our airlines are compatible. Along those lines, who would have thought combining USAir and Piedmont, when they both were two of the stronger US carriers would create what it did. Two money making airlines combined to start losing money. Mergers are tricky, ugly things ripe with all kinds of unintended consequences.

 

[waveflyer]

Can I ask a question?

IF airline A- lets say JetBlue bc I know you're a swa hater- were to buy Hawaiian- you could merge and your career would be relatively unfazed- OR not and the damage is lasting-

Which would you choose? Would you act in your own self interest or burn the place down even if it meant starting over somewhere else?

Such vague answers - I think you think we have more control than we do. A 'wisdom to know the difference' thing here

 

[Dan Roman]

Can I ask a question?

IF airline A- lets say JetBlue bc I know you're a swa hater- were to buy Hawaiian- you could merge and your career would be relatively unfazed- OR not and the damage is lasting-

Which would you choose? Would you act in your own self interest or burn the place down even if it meant starting over somewhere else?

Such vague answers - I think you think we have more control than we do. A 'wisdom to know the difference' thing here

Let me try a loaded answer for a loaded question. Let's say the merger with another airline scenario goes the career relatively unfazed scenario....I would accept it and actually enjoy the change. The scenario you are talking about would be like the DAL/NWA merger. I'm senior enough that I would stay as an A330 Captain no matter what, there is no scenario with that type of merger that would screw me, obviously they would be buying HA to have a hub in HNL. Scenario B, an airline displacing me, simply doesn't make sense. Why would any airline buy HA if they didn't want a hub in HNL? What you are talking about is the scenario that has only happened in the SWA/AirTran merger. It's unique to SWA. They are the only airline with the resources to buy smaller carriers and the unwillingness to truly merge them. But as you said, and as impossible as that scenario is for the reasons I stated (HA/SWA), if your little warriors tried to come over here and displace me and take all our flying...? You would inherit a group of employees that would have zero corporate loyalty. Would I try and "burn the house down" as you say. No, I'm more pragmatic than that. As you can probably tell, I like Hawaiian and so do most of our employees. In fact, we are probably more alike than different at our two airlines in having a highly motivated pro company employee group. But should the almost impossible to happen HA/SWA scenario actually take place, I would morph into an employee that would have zero loyalty and look for any angle that I could to benefit "me", regardless of the corporate well being. Not "burning the house down", but I would certainly see my sick leave through a different set of glasses.

Finally, I am NOT a SWA hater, if you read my posts, they are all focused on "hating" the type of merger that SWA/AirTran did. Buying a smaller airline, shafting many of the employees out of their domicle or seat, GK being deceitful, etc etc. THAT is what I have a problem with and for obvious reasons would not appreciate it. But I certainly respect SWA for all it's accomplished and really appreciate the fact that they have down a great job of setting an example that treating your employees well does in fact yield great benefits. (screwing them in merger does not!)

 

[dicko]

it simply would not be possible for SWA to takeover Hawaiian in any semblance of a smooth transition.

Since when does that matter to SWA ?

 

[Dan Roman]

Since when does that matter to SWA ?

Ha, that's the point, despite what some think, their track record would be a huge factor if they tried to takeover Hawaiian. That said, if SWA suddenly thought they want a A330/767 operation in the middle of the pacific, it would indicate they are really desperate to reinvent themselves. I really don't think they are in trouble and want to throw out what has been working for them the last 30 years.

 

[wscrj]

I'm curious Dan. Any thoughts on the Eskimo and HA joining forces? It's come up around here of late.

 

[Dan Roman]

I'm curious Dan. Any thoughts on the Eskimo and HA joining forces? It's come up around here of late.

Actually that rumor gets floated around ever since you guys started Hawaii service. I remember a couple years age some AK guys told some of our pilots that it was a done deal and our respective MEC's were meeting as they spoke. He said he knew one of the pilots in the meeting. It was totally false. You guys are very successful as a 737 operator with room to grow in a lot of places I would think. Seems to me an Airbus hub in HNL doesn't fit at all. We both have solid niches doing what we do, but they really don't seem to match up. An Alaska Airlines with a relatively small Intl hub in HNL seems like it would propel AK from a very successful 737 operation to a junior version of the old USAir, a too small "big" airline.

 

[canyonblue]

Let me try a loaded answer for a loaded question. Let's say the merger with another airline scenario goes the career relatively unfazed scenario....I would accept it and actually enjoy the change. The scenario you are talking about would be like the DAL/NWA merger.

That didn't go all that well for the Northwest pilots. Many of the guys I talked to were not all that happy about losing a couple years of seniority. Of course the Delto guys treat it like it was the best SLI ever, and think we screwed over the AAI guys. At least the Deltos got stock.

 

[Dan Roman]

That didn't go all that well for the Northwest pilots. Many of the guys I talked to were not all that happy about losing a couple years of seniority. Of course the Delto guys treat it like it was the best SLI ever, and think we screwed over the AAI guys. At least the Deltos got stock.

Well the reality is all mergers suck.

 

[HowardBorden]

The uproar in Hawaii if SWA thought they could "takeover" Hawaiian would be huge to say the least. They would have to battle a public and political sentiment that would be far beyond what you would expect. I'm just scratching the surface when I make that comment.

Let me just start by saying that I also don't think a SWA/Hawaiian combinatioin is in the cards in any form. But, I am curious how you think Hawaiian is different than Aloha? When GO! entered the market I heard all the same arguments.

Hawaiians will never let GO! survive. There will be massive boycotts. Locals love Aloha and will do anything to keep them afloat. Government officials will lobby so hard against this it has no chance of succeeding.

In the end none of this proposed outrage made any difference. Either it didn't happen at all or it simply wasn't effective because Aloha is long gone. I don't live there, and am not that familiar with the region, but please explain why Hawaiian is so drastically different and would fare better if it was threatened by an outsider.

 

[General Lee]

That didn't go all that well for the Northwest pilots. Many of the guys I talked to were not all that happy about losing a couple years of seniority. Of course the Delto guys treat it like it was the best SLI ever, and think we screwed over the AAI guys. At least the Deltos got stock.

Zero AT pilots kept their Capt seats, right? Zero? To switch over to SWA, they had to go to the right seat, even though they brought some 737s to the merger? Is that right? Does that sound even remotely fair? An arbitrator would never have allowed that. And NWA had more DC9s and 747-200F's going away, and DL had more 757s, hence 2 more years of seniority. A panel of 3 arbitrators thought that was fair, but you don't?

And the DL pilots did get stock, mostly around 3200 to 3800 shares, at about $5 a share back then. Today it was over $16 a share, and I still have my 3600 shares. Not bad....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Dan Roman]

Let me just start by saying that I also don't think a SWA/Hawaiian combinatioin is in the cards in any form. But, I am curious how you think Hawaiian is different than Aloha? When GO! entered the market I heard all the same arguments.

Hawaiians will never let GO! survive. There will be massive boycotts. Locals love Aloha and will do anything to keep them afloat. Government officials will lobby so hard against this it has no chance of succeeding.

In the end none of this proposed outrage made any difference. Either it didn't happen at all or it simply wasn't effective because Aloha is long gone. I don't live there, and am not that familiar with the region, but please explain why Hawaiian is so drastically different and would fare better if it was threatened by an outsider.

Aloha failed because of very deep financial reasons. No amount of public sentiment could overcome that. Too be clear, I never said the State would put up money to prevent a merger. When Aloha failed, there was still a local airline to serve Hawaii. That's the difference.
Go has been a massive failure, very low ridership and in fact, Hawaiian turns away passengers during the peak middle of the day period that Go picks up. They basically carry what Hawaiian can't and have barely survived as basically a skeleton inter-island carrier. In addition, AQ is in no way comparable to what Hawaiian has established itself in Hawaii now. HA is a much bigger factor in the States economy today and much more integral to it's future.

 

[canyonblue]

Zero AT pilots kept their Capt seats, right? Zero? To switch over to SWA, they had to go to the right seat, even though they brought some 737s to the merger? Is that right? Does that sound even remotely fair?


Bye Bye---General Lee

Their first offer allowed them to keep ALL of their Capt seats, but they didn't seem to like it. So they rolled again and came up craps. What was that stupid Kenny Rogers song again?

Oh yeah, they brought some 737's, about equal to 8% of our fleet. So if NWA brought at least 8% of the 757's your saying that they should have been given DOH? I think you should consider a new SLI for them.

 

[General Lee]

Their first offer allowed them to keep ALL of their Capt seats, but they didn't seem to like it. So they rolled again and came up craps. What was that stupid Kenny Rogers song again?

Oh yeah, they brought some 737's, about equal to 8% of our fleet. So if NWA brought at least 8% of the 757's your saying that they should have been given DOH? I think you should consider a new SLI for them.

Three neutrals thought it was fair for our SLI, and they determined the list, agreed upon prior by both sides, no "take this or leave it offers." Your CEO and your pilot group thought your's was fair, hence the problem and lack of "LUV" with your merger. A successful merger and SLI has management not taking sides, and staying out of it. There will always be a few, like the guys you spoke with, that thought they got F'd in the merger. All you have to do is tell then to read the award written by the 3 arbitrators, they give their reasons.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Dan Roman]

Aloha failed because of very deep financial reasons. No amount of public sentiment could overcome that. Too be clear, I never said the State would put up money to prevent a merger. When Aloha failed, there was still a local airline to serve Hawaii. That's the difference.
Go has been a massive failure, very low ridership and in fact, Hawaiian turns away passengers during the peak middle of the day period that Go picks up. They basically carry what Hawaiian can't and have barely survived as basically a skeleton inter-island carrier. In addition, AQ is in no way comparable to what Hawaiian has established itself in Hawaii now. HA is a much bigger factor in the States economy today and much more integral to it's future.

By the way, I'm not just pulling this stuff out of my okole. I've seen articles were the head of the Hawaii visitors bureau has talked about the importance of Hawaiian to Hawaii. I've seen analysts say no one regions fortunes are as strongly tied together as Hawaii is to Hawaiian. Even the President of ALPA made a statement to the press here saying how important an independent Hawaiian Air is to Hawaii (sorry General!).

 

[Dan Roman]

Three neutrals thought it was fair for our SLI, and they determined the list, agreed upon prior by both sides, no "take this or leave it offers." Your CEO and your pilot group thought your's was fair, hence the problem and lack of "LUV" with your merger. A successful merger and SLI has management not taking sides, and staying out of it. There will always be a few, like the guys you spoke with, that thought they got F'd in the merger. All you have to do is tell then to read the award written by the 3 arbitrators, they give their reasons.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Sorry Canyon, General wins this one. There is no way you can compare SWA's actions in their merger to being anywhere near as well executed as the DAL/NWA merger. All mergers suck, but yours sucked a lot more. I'm guessing SWA threw out a lot more employee moral with theirs than DAL did.

 

[slaquer5]

. Even the President of ALPA made a statement to the press here saying how important an independent Hawaiian Air is to Hawaii (sorry General!).

Oh wow even the president of ALPA. wow you should have said that from the beginning.

SO what else did this OHHH great one have to say.

Dan do you actually believe the dribble to spew?

 

[General Lee]

Sorry Canyon, General wins this one. There is no way you can compare SWA's actions in their merger to being anywhere near as well executed as the DAL/NWA merger. All mergers suck, but yours sucked a lot more. I'm guessing SWA threw out a lot more employee moral with theirs than DAL did.

I agree Dan, and Canyon is trying to equate two things that had different outcomes. There probably are some disgruntled FNWA pilots, a couple of their bases were closed(ANC and now MEM). DL also closed FDAL bases too, like DFW and the cutback of flights at CVG. It happens. But, many FNWA seemed to have funneled into DAL bases, like LAX and ATL, the latter of which is now very senior to the large amount of FNWA pilots living in FLA. So, there are more that are happy with the merger than not.

Except for Madjack, I'd say the overwhelming amount of AT pilots on here at least, do not view their merger favorably. Management should not have become involved, but it is what it is now.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[madjack]

AT is going to buy JB... C'mon dorks get a life...

 

[madjack]

Blah, blah, blah

 

[General Lee]

Oh wow even the president of ALPA. wow you should have said that from the beginning.

SO what else did this OHHH great one have to say.

Dan do you actually believe the dribble to spew?

Dan,

I'm sorry, but Slaquer is correct. Don't trust Moak. The best thing we could have done is to ship him to National ALPA, to get him away from us. One deal he made with management was getting rid of our SIL's, which were lines of time that allowed you NOT to fly for the month, in exchange for 55 hours of pay, or 15 less than the minimum. Sounds great, right? If the company is fat on pilots in the Winter, they get to pay less, and the pilot gets the month off. A win win. But wait, then somehow it was changed via a TA (nobody was allowed to vote on) that gave the month off, with NO PAY...... huh???? Thanks LM.

Some ALPA is ok on the local carrier level, but I haven't seen much from National, especially the Age 65 thing.....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[aewanabe]

Of course we could. I foresee Alaska buying us any day now. Or not... Who knows?

 

[Dan Roman]

Slaquer and General, I'm not arguing about Moak good or bad, that's a whole neither string if you want to go there. My point was simply that the perception of Hawaiian as an independent company comes from many different perspectives, not just mine.

 

[texman]

Question for Gen nuts? Is Delta shrinking. I heard no new hires for the three years??