Alaska Fleet Plan for 2013/2014

[igneousy2]

Alaska's Fleet Plan for 2013/2014:

2013: +3 Aircraft
2014: -3 Aircraft

ZERO aircraft for 2 years.
49 retirements over the next two years.

I hope everyone is comfortable where they are sitting right now.

 

[BentOver]

Not quite understanding what your point is? If someone is not happy with their position (left or right seat in a -73) are you saying they should consider other options....

The industry has been in a decade long, non-movement, period...... A zero growth fleet plan is not all that shocking.. Nor would it be shocking if in 6 months the fleet plan changed

 

[Mookie]

Alaska's Fleet Plan for 2013/2014:

2013: +3 Aircraft
2014: -3 Aircraft

ZERO aircraft for 2 years.
49 retirements over the next two years.

I hope everyone is comfortable where they are sitting right now.

But we're growing ASM's, sooooo that's growth, right? Maybe we didn't "earn the right to grow".

Mookie

 

[DCAA320]

Not quite understanding what your point is? If someone is not happy with their position (left or right seat in a -73) are you saying they should consider other options....

The industry has been in a decade long, non-movement, period...... A zero growth fleet plan is not all that shocking.. Nor would it be shocking if in 6 months the fleet plan changed

He is just saying enjoy the stagnation, nothing more.

 

[Cornelius]

Better than losing aircraft in 2013 like Frontier.

 

[Cornelius]

Maybe 5 retirements at F9.

 

[flythere]

The writing has been on the wall! These -900ER's arriving at the same or slightly decreased rate that the -400's will be leaving. The net gain in seats will come from the difference in the two airplanes, -400= 144 total seats. -900ER= 181, 37 seats being the diff!

I think managements case all along has been growth in ASM's, I think we all took that to mean more airplanes. It means more new seats on new airplanes while we get rid of the -400's. When the dust settles sometime in 2016-2018 and all of the -400's and -700's are gone, we will prob have the same or similar size fleet that we have today.

My prediction for 2018; fleet size somewhere around 126 airplanes, all -800's/-900's. approx 1,500 pilot's and they will run very lean with pilots that VSA so they can keep the pilot numbers low!

 

[Old School 737]

And Skywest will be flying the 92 seat equipment for us

 

[Mookie]

The writing has been on the wall! These -900ER's arriving at the same or slightly decreased rate that the -400's will be leaving. The net gain in seats will come from the difference in the two airplanes, -400= 144 total seats. -900ER= 181, 37 seats being the diff!

I think managements case all along has been growth in ASM's, I think we all took that to mean more airplanes. It means more new seats on new airplanes while we get rid of the -400's. When the dust settles sometime in 2016-2018 and all of the -400's and -700's are gone, we will prob have the same or similar size fleet that we have today.

My prediction for 2018; fleet size somewhere around 126 airplanes, all -800's/-900's. approx 1,500 pilot's and they will run very lean with pilots that VSA so they can keep the pilot numbers low!

Bingo...

 

[CesnaCaptn]

Where is the fleet plan located? I couldn't find anything beyond 2013.

This from the earning call:

Glenn Engel - Bank of AmericaAnd finally when I looked at the fleet plan, it looked like you are not going to grow your fleet at all now in 2014, I thought previously you are planning on growing that fleet some, so what changed?


Brad Tilden - Chief Executive OfficerIn 2014, the plan right now is to have 10 in and I don’t have the investor update in front of me, probably a whole bunch going out. I think the answer to your question is that there is a lot of things moving around in 2014. We have a lot of flexibility. One of the uncertainties right now is what we do with the Combi fleet there is actually five of those airplanes that we want to retire here as sometime in the next two years. The other thing that we have is a whole lot of flexibility with options. And so to say firmly that we are not going to grow the fleet in 2014, I don’t think its right, I don’t think we have decided. I think the bias is to grow as long as we can do so and meet our return goals, but there is a lot of moving parts between now.

Glenn Engel - Bank of AmericaActually, the update shows you we are going to shrink the fleet by three in 2014?


Brad Tilden - Chief Executive OfficerYeah, and that reflects the Combi is going out in 2014, there is five of those. We have tentatively packed those to go out in the fourth quarter, but again that’s still moving around.

 

[jonjuan]

Not quite understanding what your point is? If someone is not happy with their position (left or right seat in a -73) are you saying they should consider other options....

The industry has been in a decade long, non-movement, period...... A zero growth fleet plan is not all that shocking.. Nor would it be shocking if in 6 months the fleet plan changed

You'll change your tune when delta buys ha and you are on the dc-9 in Detroit for 5 years.

 

[CesnaCaptn]

You'll change your tune when delta buys ha and you are on the dc-9 in Detroit for 5 years.

We can trade widebody fences for a fences around domiciles east of San Diego. Career expectations, right?

 

[Mamma]

Alaska's Fleet Plan for 2013/2014:

2013: +3 Aircraft
2014: -3 Aircraft

ZERO aircraft for 2 years.
49 retirements over the next two years.

I hope everyone is comfortable where they are sitting right now.

I heard 83 notified the company they plan on retiring this year. 70 new hires planned for 2013. Maybe 50 more to cover new rest rules. Who knows...

 

[Boxboy]

3000 by 3000

 

[igneousy2]

Where is the fleet plan located? I couldn't find anything beyond 2013.

This from the earning call:

Projected Fleet Count(a)

​

Actual Fleet Count​

Expected Fleet Activity​

Aircraft​

Dec 31, 2011​

Dec 31, 2012​

2013 Changes​

Dec 31, 2013​

2014 Changes​

Dec 31, 2014​

737 Freighters & Combis​

6​

​

6​

​

—​

​

6​

​

(3​

)​

3​

737 Passenger Aircraft​

111​

​

118​

​

3​

​

121​

​

—​

​

121​

Total Mainline Fleet​

117​

​

124​

​

3​

​

127​

​

(3​

)​

124​

Q400​

48​

​

48​

​

—​

​

48​

​

—​

​

48​

Total​

165​

​

172​

​

3​

​

175​

​

(3​

)​

172​

​

(a)
The expected fleet counts at December 31, 2013 and 2014 are subject to change.

It is found in the 8-K filed with the SEC. It's on the second to the last page.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=109361&p=irol-sec​

 

[igneousy2]

Okay...that chart didn't look like it did when I previewed it and now fi.com won't let me edit it...sorry. I think the link works though. If it doesn't...the 8-K's can be found in the investor section of www.alaskaair.com under SEC filings.

 

[Chief Pilot]

And Skywest will be flying the 92 seat equipment for us

+1

We really should have focused on scope during the last go around, but most people were more concerned with wages than job security. I don't necessarily blame them after the Kashstration, but I found that most guys didn't even realize how nearly non-existent our scope language is.

We are finally focused on job security issues, but this is how I see things playing out:

1. Company initially offers 3% pay raise at signing, then 1% per year for the duration of a 6 year contract.

2. Absolutely NO CHANGE to our practically non-existent Scope language.

3. Changes to retirement age to begin bumping it up closer to the federal retirement age--say 30/62.

4. Additional efficiencies in scheduling that limit our abilities further to actually have a life outside of work.

After we balk at the ridiculously low pay offer and thump our chests about scope and scheduling, management comes back with something on the order of 10% at signing, plus 2% per year for 4 years, with no scope changes, and the scheduling efficiencies they want. We all then eagerly sign off on that, because we are very predictable and greedy (see VSA levels and current premium trips that get flown when we get those nifty text messages from scheduling). We will then scratch our heads in wonder as Republic starts flying EMB175's, 190's, and 195's with Eskimo's painted on the tails and Alaska Airlines written on the side.

As was stated in an earlier post, we are trading in all of our small 737's for big 737's, which will leave a large gap in the size from a 76 seat Dash8 to a 156 seat -800 or a 180 seat -900. Are we going to continue to let our flying get outsourced? Are we going to continue giving up things in our contract for meager improvements in other areas when the company is making more money than anytime in its history?

I hope not, but I fear we will. I hope I am way off base with the above scenario and that our negotiating team is as capable as they think they are. We, as a pilot group, deserve better this time around.

CP

 

[igneousy2]

+1

Are we going to continue to let our flying get outsourced? Are we going to continue giving up things in our contract for meager improvements in other areas when the company is making more money than anytime in its history?

Yes. Yes.

 

[jonjuan]

After we balk at the ridiculously low pay offer and thump our chests about scope and scheduling, management comes back with something on the order of 10% at signing,

CP

Bam-company immediately got 60% yes votes right there. No need to read further.

 

[Capt. Kramer]

We can trade widebody fences for a fences around domiciles east of San Diego. Career expectations, right?

Unless SW buys you, in which case your career is over.