Two references to 2011, I assume you meant 2001. Yes the first CRJ came in 2000 but the overwhelming majority followed post 9/11 and directly replaced 727 and DC9 flying. Whether or not 9/11 had to do with the fleet plan, I'm not sure, but the fact remains that NWA parked the domestic 727s and Dc9s while expanding CRJs.
Yes, I meant 2001. Sorry, I drink and post sometimes... or just don't proofread what I write.
The 50-seaters didn't replace ALL the 727 and DC-9 flying. The 727's were retired on-schedule, 9/11 nor the 50-seaters advanced that timeline whatsoever. The DC-9 flying is more complicated, and SOME of those -9's were replaced by 50 seaters into smaller markets (3 DC-9's replaced by 2 50-seaters, one of which flew the stand-up / EMO, and one DC-9 left on the route such as Duluth, Bozeman, etc that didn't support that many seats). However, a good portion of that flying was retired EARLY after 9/11, partly because airline bookings (and, thus profit) took a dive and also in part because of an expensive bulkhead A.D. on the older -9's (the -50's I think, but don't quote me) was coming due.
They were going to retire a LOT more DC-9's early, but bookings improved and they decided to do the A.D.'s on the larger -9's. Point is, PART of the -9's going away was driven by replacement with 50-seaters, but a larger portion was not, and was replaced with Airbus deliveries about the same time frame.
You are correct about what's happening. But aren't regionals suppose to be cheap contract feed? If you have a super senior airline, won't it have higher costs than a relatively new airline with lower longevity costs?
Of course they are, but that doesn't mean you constantly use new up-start regionals, bankruptcy, and shutdown, as a long-term CASM strategy for Mainline. Even at the highest longevity scale, the labor piece of a Regional such as PCL is roughly 1/3 of mainline's overall Labor Cost, and about 1/2 what a DC-9 / Airbus runs on a Labor CASM.
The regionals didn't have this problem in the 80s and 90s where people came in, got their time, and moved on. Now regionals are more senior because of less chances of moving up, and people wanting to hang on instead of jumping for what they think is uncertainty.
I think the people who want to move on will always move on to a Major carrier from a Regional. It's whether they'll move to permanent ex-pat flying like Emirates or a fringe carrier right on the edge like you did with VX or even, arguably, JB (although I think they have one of the best products in the industry). However, the rest of what you wrote is spot-on.
In any case, does Delta owe anything for loyalty for regionals? If it's contract feed, don't they owe it to their shareholders to do the same job safely at a lower cost if possible?
I would argue that their obligation to honor their feed contract and protect the employment of people who worked for them in good faith through the feeder company would be just as great as their obligation to the shareholders, but this is more of an ethical argument and we know about airline management and ethics.
It sucks for us as pilots, but Delta can have GoJets do it cheaper than Mesaba, then yes that's what they will do. Comair was arguably the most senior regional airline and Delta closed them up and shifted their flying. Pinnacle wasn't that senior but with the Mesaba merger, it too has become very senior. New entrants like Silver Airways and GoJets represent the lower cost reigonals and can do the same job safely at a cheaper rate.
I have no argument with a company taking a contract thats EXPIRING and using it to cost-shop for a lower bidder OR to offer a NEW contract to the lowest bidder. That's just the way business works.
But to use the threat of liquidation bankruptcy and career loss to obtain a better feed contract when they financially don't need to do so to continue profitably is morally reprehensible.
This was the kinda BS that was coming, so I applied everywhere and jumped at the first opportunity. I've heard that 500 have quit for 2012 so far.
Doesn't shock me, and good for you to have the foresight to jump. I've made one or two similar career moves in my lifetime and they seemed to have worked out fine thus far. The point is that people shouldn't HAVE to go through this crap every 3-5 years at one Regional or another just so mainline carriers can play one group off another.
What a mess this industry has become since I was a kid.
By the way, cleaned out my PM box, sorry.
