Full retro pay or likely anything near it is a dream that will never come true, the amount is simply too large and it has to come out of cash. It's not going to happen, I'm not aware of any lengthy negotiation where anybody got anything near full retro pay value recently. If you want to wait to get what you think you deserve you will wait for a very long time and you will still not get it in the end. I'm not saying vote yes on a really terrible deal but you have to compare any proposed deal to what you have now, in the end that's the only comparison that really matters. Without a deal your gains are zero and likely to remain that way for a long time. Anyway, good luck, I hope the TA is a decent one and if not I hope you have the leverage to force a better one to surface.
The company has over $10 billion in cash, almost $4 billion of which was accumulated as a result of pilot concessions over the past 9/7.5 years (9 for UAL/7.5 for CAL). The money is there, it always has been. It's up to us to get it back. Only a strike will produce it. Some think we will never get released. But says who? That's like saying the US will never win the war on terror. You never know until you try. Saying it won't work is the lamest excuse in the first place. I will admit most pilots seem defeated and want to give up early but that doesn't change the fact that the money is there for retro, nor does it change the fact that we will have to shut the airline down to get it. FWIW, everyone I fly with is ready to walk and start over. If this AIP/ TA does pass, IMO, it will begin the next cycle in the long drawn-out path of regression in this profession. It will also likely spell the beginning of the end of UAL. I'd give it 10 yrs before we start down the path of Braniff/ Pan-Am. You can't continue to kick labor in the face and expect results. Our customers are furious over our product of late. They loathe UAL. Meanwhile DAL, HAL, and all the gold-standard global carriers are poaching our top-tier customer base.
Our CEO thinks he can fix the problem by just "getting through the summer", due to our critical staffing levels, and by adding Wifi, layflat seats and giving away FC for free. But when the competition starts offering the same product, has 26 yr old FAs and flys brand new aircraft, what makes you different? Service is the answer there. If Jeff continues to believe he can pummel his service organization then this merger is DOA. It's failing already.
As far as a strike, you can't do s sickout any more. You can't do a slow-down/ work-to-rule campaign, you can't just walk away and start over at the bottom of a seniority list, and you can't force the company to negotiate fairly. Therefore, the only tool a professional pilot has left is the strike (aka: getting released). So there really isn't any other alternative. The company will NEVER be fair in negotiations so a strike is the inevitable outcome IF we are to restore this profession.
To accept anything less than FULL retro is simply rewarding management for their delay tactics in negotiations over the past 4 years (yes, we've been negotiating that long). The $400 million is a signing bonus, as an equivalent offset to the DAL $399.5 equity stake. If rumors are true about this AIP (they came directly from the LAX reps, so I believe the accuracy), then we are getting NO RETRO. Not even a dollar. We have to at least get what DAL got (plus interest) because all along management has compared us to DAL at every turn and twist in negotiations. So if that's the platform from which they want to get a deal then we get everything the DAL pilots got. Hence the $400 mil is just a signing bonus/ equity stake for the merger. If we allow the company to get away with paying no retro God help us all in the profession. It will set the stage for years of delayed negotiations for everyone but SWA and maybe FDX. It basically tells inept managements that the NMB is a paper tiger and delaying a pilot contract by 4+ years will save the company $2 billion over that time and the pilots will never be able to lay claim to that amount.