This is the one time I think management isn't bluffing. Lets look at facts here. Assuming the Delta TA passes (which if I had to bet, I think it will), there has to be tons of -200 parking, down to just a total of 125 left for Delta Connection. In exchange, there is a net gain of 70 of the 76-seater jets (-900s).
Pinnacle Corp's current end-game fleet is 140 CRJ-200s and 41 CRJ-900s. The current 16 CRJ-900s will most likely go to Skywest or ASA, on a 2-for-1 swap deal with the CRJ-200s.
The memo clearly spells out that GoJets and Compass are cheaper. Lets face it, they are. Both started around 2005 (give or take), so their most senior Captain is only year 6 or 7. At Pinnacle Corp, year 6 you are barely able to hold on to a -900 Captain seat. Most of the -900 pilots have 10+ years service, and a majority are in the six figure range. If you compare costs by looking at wages, benefits, QOL, there is no doubt that Pinnacle Corp costs much more than GoJets or Compass. Seniority is something that is heavy at Pinnacle Corp, whereas very little at GoJets and Compass. On a cost basis, with the current JCBA at Pinnacle and the current costs compared to GoJets and Compass, you just cannot compete.
Another thing: both GoJets and Compass WILL have pilots guaranteed to flow (Compass to Delta) or recall (Gojet United furloughees) so that lowers longevity of their pilot group. Captains will still go junior, GoJets is already at street Captains and Compass at around 3 or 4 years. Compare that to Pinnacle Corp, where a good 60% of the -900 Captains are not going anywhere, lifers who will retire there.
The future is simple for Delta: place the additional 70 RJs wherever they see fit, for the cheapest cost. I don't think they already know today where those 70 will go. They will let Pinnacle's drama play out in BK and see what happens with the JCBA.
Pinnacle has two end-states:
Option 1. Take no voluntary concessions, and tell them to go pound themselves. Delta will not reward any 70 seaters to Pinnacle, and will draw/swap out Pinnacle's -200s for the new 70 seaters at a swap ratio of 2-for-1 or maybe 3-for-1, and give the 70 seaters to GoJets and Compass, maybe ASA and Skywest. In the end, Pinnacle will be reduced to just the current 41 CRJ-900s and anything between 0 to 30 CRJ-200s.
Option 2. Accept wage concessions, and make Pinnacle Corp's wage rates and QOL package on the 76 seaters the same as GoJets or Compass. Now, Delta wouldn't care where they 76 seaters go from a cost perspective. Here, they can swap out current Pinnacle -200s for more 76 seaters to Pinnacle, on a similar 2-for-1 swap. End game here would be the original 41 CRJ-900s, plus maybe half the new 70 seaters allowed, so an additional 35 CRJ-900s, and parking of a bunch of -200s, down to a total of 20-40 CRJ-200s.
These are just rough estimates on numbers, but the scenarios are clear, and Pinnacle will be headed down on one of those two paths. In both cases though, note that a siginificant amount of CRJ-200s will be parked. There is no getting around that. One, Pinnacle is in bankruptcy, something no other DCI carrier is in right now. For Delta, also being DIP, it is so much easier to cut fleets in BK than with carriers like Skywest or ASA who are on contracts that would require payment to be broken. Just look at what Delta did to Comair in BK. The writing is on the wall.
