SWA Kelly - "no plans to grow this year"

[Lear70]

32 total aircraft will be converted to have BOTH rafts AND HF on the AirTran side. Currently only about 12 have both I believe. That will coincide with the increases you see in press releases from other cities in the route network after SOC to greatly increase our frequency to Mexico/Caribbean destinations. Selling Southwest tickets on AirTran planes until the reservation system can be upgraded to accomodate it.

I believe I read there will be a total LOSS of 7 hulls from the total fleet number at Southwest this year (2012). That includes deliveries - aircraft retirements + airtran converted aircraft. However, with the fleet increasing the number of seats, both in new aircraft AND the AirTran converting aircraft, ASM's should be close to the same. On the flip side, with 7 less aircraft, that's 70-80 fewer pilots needed, which should cover half the attrition this year, so no worries of furloughs, but no growth in terms of hiring just from the surface (I have no inside knowledge on that, just running the numbers).

And as far as "flame bait" from Outerlimits? I'd say he's closer than you think to the mark. There's a REASON the front-running city for the 717 base besides TPA was LAX. With the addition of Hawaii to the route network, plus all the upcoming Mexico/Caribbean, just add Anchorage, put 1/3 of our 717's out in L.A. to run up and down the West Coast connecting short-haul traffic to those cities, and East Coast feed to the same, and you have a serious threat to Alaska's presence on the West Coast.

Of course, we'll likely never serve some of the outlying cities Alaska does (those approaches are proprietary and personally, I'd rather watch videos of it - Alaska's nice to visit in the summer, that's about it), but the low-hanging fruit is there for the picking on the West Coast. I bet Alaska management is more concerned about it than it might appear...

My personal bet all along has been that TPA likely doesn't emerge as a large 717 base, only a small base, and quite a few 717's are moved to LAX in 2014.

Time will tell...

 

[On Your Six]

As per Bob Jordan, 13 AAI 737's are going to be converted this year, as per R. Mccrady, 168 AAI pilots are transitioning this year, as Per Mr K and SWAPA, 33 -800 deliveries this year and 40 -300 retirements, as per Mr K, adding a row (six seats) to all -700's...also keeping 22 AAI cites...adding service to MEX and ATL...so...are we growing??

You are also cutting some routes (PIT-PHL, SEA-GEG, SEA-BOI), some AT cities (6 of them), and adding MEX and SJD (in Mexico). Overall, it could be a wash. I wouldn't call that growing. Your JEP Binder may be growing, but you are only adding 2 cities that AT/SWA never flew to before, and taking away 6 cities that AT used to fly to.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[On Your Six]

32 total aircraft will be converted to have BOTH rafts AND HF on the AirTran side. Currently only about 12 have both I believe. That will coincide with the increases you see in press releases from other cities in the route network after SOC to greatly increase our frequency to Mexico/Caribbean destinations. Selling Southwest tickets on AirTran planes until the reservation system can be upgraded to accomodate it.

I believe I read there will be a total LOSS of 7 hulls from the total fleet number at Southwest this year (2012). That includes deliveries - aircraft retirements + airtran converted aircraft. However, with the fleet increasing the number of seats, both in new aircraft AND the AirTran converting aircraft, ASM's should be close to the same. On the flip side, with 7 less aircraft, that's 70-80 fewer pilots needed, which should cover half the attrition this year, so no worries of furloughs, but no growth in terms of hiring just from the surface (I have no inside knowledge on that, just running the numbers).

And as far as "flame bait" from Outerlimits? I'd say he's closer than you think to the mark. There's a REASON the front-running city for the 717 base besides TPA was LAX. With the addition of Hawaii to the route network, plus all the upcoming Mexico/Caribbean, just add Anchorage, put 1/3 of our 717's out in L.A. to run up and down the West Coast connecting short-haul traffic to those cities, and East Coast feed to the same, and you have a serious threat to Alaska's presence on the West Coast.

Of course, we'll likely never serve some of the outlying cities Alaska does (those approaches are proprietary and personally, I'd rather watch videos of it - Alaska's nice to visit in the summer, that's about it), but the low-hanging fruit is there for the picking on the West Coast. I bet Alaska management is more concerned about it than it might appear...

My personal bet all along has been that TPA likely doesn't emerge as a large 717 base, only a small base, and quite a few 717's are moved to LAX in 2014.

Time will tell...

But then in 2015 you will start to dump the 717s. The leases start to expire, and the incoming 738s and 737-700s will replace outgoing 717s, 737-300s, and 737-500s. You can try Alaska if you want, but Alaska Air really does have the routes covered from SEA to ANC, JNU, FAI, etc. Many others have tried, and many have scaled back. They pretty much own it. And, they now have a strong foothold on the West Coast to Hawaii market, along with Hawaiian. Throw in UAL (very profitable) with plenty of SFO/LAX flights to all of the islands, AA and DL filling planes mainly with frequent flyers, and Allegiant looking at throwing 757s at the market too, it is no wonder GK decided to apparently back off for another year.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[Lear70]

2017, actually, before the 717's start going back, and only 4 in 2017, 5 in 2018, 4 in 2019, the real retirements don't start until 2020.

I could be totally off-base, but I don't think so. Throw a LCC into Anchorage and Juneau connecting down to LAX to go everywhere from Hawaii to Mexico to the Caribbean, and I think you'll see Southwest create their own niche.

They've done it before, we'll do it again. Looking forward to the future... it's so bright... I gotta wear shades.

 

[Captain Fulough]

Lear, don't muddy the bashing with facts.

 

[outerlimits]

Your flame bait is quite dull.
You might want to extract some of that energy and study for recurrent, or maybe getting a date.

Just an observation.

Sorry, so will you walk in my app. To UAL. When is the next class date?

 

[redflyer65]

I'd say Lears forecast of things to come at Southwest is probably as close as anyones (all subject to change of course).

I see us entering Hawaii in 2013 and possibly Anchorage to follow not far behind. In the meantime, continued AAI expansion into Mexico/Caribbean with the airframes/flight time they have available.

I really don't see us taking much business away from Alaska with either Hawaii or Alaska. We have plenty of frequent customers that want to go when we go...aka niche. There will be room for both carriers to make money and that's most likely how it will play out.

As far as cutting any cities from either the SW schedule or the AAI schedule will allow for those airframes to be put on more lucrative routes. Plain and simple...to make as much money with the airframe and crew as possible.

There are a TON of growth possiblities for SW in the future, just not much happening for 2012. And I'm good with that, just keep the profits rolling until then.

RF

 

[Dan Roman]

I really don't see us taking much business away from Alaska with either Hawaii or Alaska. We have plenty of frequent customers that want to go when we go...aka niche. There will be room for both carriers to make money and that's most likely how it will play out.



RF

I agree.
Hawaii is a very large market and SWA has a very large network to draw from. If you guys come here you will do the same think AK did. Create your traffic from your route structure. Hell, you may even get feed from Lubbock! (insert little smily face here).
Seems to me, the more the legacies use RJ 's the more opportunity there is for other carriers to step into a market and create new business for them. I work for Hawaiian and we have a whole different business model. We go to we're we can fill up a wide body with people that want to go to Hawaii on Hawaiian Air. We really don't have much mainland feed. Interesting enough, we do do a lot of code sharing on our International flights, Virgin Blue, ANA etc.

 

[SKC]

Hawaii won't happen until 2nd quarter 2013 at the earliest.

We most likely won't even have ETOPs authorization prior to end of Nov/first of Dec 2012 anyway.

 

[On Your Six]

2017, actually, before the 717's start going back, and only 4 in 2017, 5 in 2018, 4 in 2019, the real retirements don't start until 2020.

I could be totally off-base, but I don't think so. Throw a LCC into Anchorage and Juneau connecting down to LAX to go everywhere from Hawaii to Mexico to the Caribbean, and I think you'll see Southwest create their own niche.

They've done it before, we'll do it again. Looking forward to the future... it's so bright... I gotta wear shades.

Soooo, people will connect in LA all the way from ANC on SWA to go to Hawaii and the Caribbean? Really? Yeah, sounds like you might be off base. No offense. Most in ANC would fly nonstop from ANC to HNL and OGG on Alaska Airlines. Remember, your two biggest competitors on the Hawaii and Alaska routes actually have those States in their names. They have home field advantage, and set the fares and standards for everyone to those places. The rest just fly frequent fliers to those places pretty much. Good luck.

Godspeed!


The OYSter