Welcome to Flightinfo.com

  • Register now and join the discussion
  • Friendliest aviation Ccmmunity on the web
  • Modern site for PC's, Phones, Tablets - no 3rd party apps required
  • Ask questions, help others, promote aviation
  • Share the passion for aviation
  • Invite everyone to Flightinfo.com and let's have fun

SWA Kelly - "no plans to grow this year"

Welcome to Flightinfo.com

  • Register now and join the discussion
  • Modern secure site, no 3rd party apps required
  • Invite your friends
  • Share the passion of aviation
  • Friendliest aviation community on the web

satpak77

Marriott Platinum Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2003
Posts
3,015
So much for Hawaii....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204616504577170562897804828.html



Southwest Airlines Co. will keep capacity flat this year and focus on boosting revenue to overcome high fuel costs, as the largest U.S. domestic carrier squares up to toughening competition.



Dallas-based Southwest is dialing back expansion for a second year, focusing on a revamp of its aircraft fleet and digesting AirTran Airways after closing its deal for the Atlanta-based rival.



Chief Executive Gary Kelly said Thursday that there are no plans for Southwest to grow this year. "Our network plans, in that respect, are conservative and are geared toward boosting our revenue performance," Mr. Kelly said during a conference call with analysts to discuss the company's fourth-quarter earnings.



Southwest opened the U.S. airline reporting season with results that beat analysts' expectations, though the earnings fell when stripped of special items.



The airline said booking levels indicated the first quarter will be strong, with average passenger revenue likely to rise 7% to 8%.
"The traffic demand looks really good," said Mr. Kelly, who described corporate bookings as "stable."



Southwest will add only Atlanta to its network this year, with 15 daily flights starting from the Delta Air Lines Inc. stronghold next month. Its AirTran unit will add flights to Mexico City and Cabo San Lucas, while cutting several unprofitable cities including Miami, Knoxville, Tenn., and Bloomington, Ill.



"We'll have big schedule changes occurring within the AirTran unit throughout the year," Mr. Kelly said.



The airline expects to receive its single-operating certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration in March, allowing it to integrate AirTran's fleet. When Southwest and AirTran combine their networks this year, they will reach 103 cities.



Southwest said its profit rose 16% to $152 million in the fourth quarter from $131 million a year earlier. Per-share earnings rose to 20 cents from 18 cents. Excluding special items such as fuel-hedge gains, the per-share profit fell to nine cents from 15 cents, beating Wall Street estimates by a penny.



In 2011, the airline earned $330 million excluding special items, its 39th consecutive profitable year.



Last month, Southwest placed a firm order for 150 Boeing Co. 737 Max airplanes, as well as 58 more 737-700s and 737-800s for $19 billion at list prices—the largest order in Boeing history. Southwest will add 33 737-800s this year, while retiring 40 aircraft, dropping its fleet size to 691 planes from 698. The airline said this week it will refurbish the interior of its fleet, fitting in six extra seats on each plane. Southwest expects the fleet changes to save $70 million in 2012.



Capacity is expected to rise 1% in the first quarter of this year, largely due to an extra day because 2012 is a leap year. Southwest said its capacity will hold flat this year compared with 2011 pro forma results.
Southwest's unit cost, the amount spent to fly a passenger a mile, edged up 0.5% over pro forma results for a year earlier—better than previous guidance of a 2% increase. The airline said it expects unit costs to increase again in the first quarter of 2012.



Average fares in the fourth quarter were $140.18, an increase of about 10% compared with a year earlier, including AirTran pro forma results.
When questioned about industry speculation of competitors targeting a merger or acquisition of American Airlines' parent AMR Corp., which filed for bankruptcy-court protection in November, Mr. Kelly said Southwest is preoccupied with closing the AirTran merger, and added that AMR's network strategy didn't fit with Southwest's.



But he said, "We will pay close attention to any things that do become available, whether it's a simple route or whether it's other assets, and we'll be on our toes to move on those if there are some good opportunities."



Shares in Southwest rose 3.1%, or 28 cents, to $9.30 at 4 p.m. Thursday in composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock price climbed to its highest level in almost six months during the session.
 
There is absolutely nothing new here. Many times Gary has stated the growth will be at 0%.

At least its not a negative number like -3%.
 
Unless the pay to fly to Hawaii is higher than the pay to fly anywhere else who cares if SW ever goes there. I mean really, does it matter?
 
Serious question... since you guys are getting -800s, are you showing still positive asm growth or will retirements outpace deliverys?
 
Probably not a true statement since a lot of the pilots came from Mesa, Pinnacle, Republic, Big Sky, Comair, Mesaba, TSA, Skyway, Horizon, ASA, ACA, Airtran, etc.....................................

Half my class was military and they fly everywhere. We had a 25 year USAirways guy, 2 ATA pilots, a Kalitta and a World pilot who all flew international at one time. We also had a corporate guy who may have. My point was it's not that unique.
 
The first time or two you go to a destination with special procedures it's interesting. Then old hat after that. What's so hard about Hawaii? I think mx and SOC have more to do to get ready for ETOPS than the pilots. We have to... Keep up with fuel burn and nearest alternate (using ETP not distance). Now the supplemental flying that our friends at World, Kallita and Evergreen to name a few perform sounds way more challenging with more responsibility on the crew. Think on your feet type stuff.
 
Unless the pay to fly to Hawaii is higher than the pay to fly anywhere else who cares if SW ever goes there. I mean really, does it matter?

I really look forward to going back to Hawaii. I always enjoyed my Hawaii layovers back at my corporate gig. Some people like seeing tropical places.


Godspeed!


The OYSter
 
Are new hires and recurrent classes getting signed off on waters training? Does it look like things are on track from the Southwest side as originally planned?

The only thing you need to know for what are doing on the Airtran Intl. side is don't speak in Spanish on the radio unless you speak Spanish.
 
The only thing you need to know for what are doing on the Airtran Intl. side is don't speak in Spanish on the radio unless you speak Spanish.


So, contacting Havana Center and saying " Buenos Diazzz, Fajita nacho libre taco 410" isn't cool ?
 
Yup... no growth... all those AirTran planes and cities and extra gates we'll have this year will be absolutely no growth for SWA. Nothing to see here... Let the Droids pass...
 
I think mx and SOC have more to do to get ready for ETOPS than the pilots..

Just to reiterate, this is factually correct. And if you need to cut costs, perhaps its best to put a project like Hawaii on the back burner for now.

BTW, this post CANNOT be misconstrued as anti-SWA so it doesn't need to be deleted.
 
Just to reiterate, this is factually correct. And if you need to cut costs, perhaps its best to put a project like Hawaii on the back burner for now.

BTW, this post CANNOT be misconstrued as anti-SWA so it doesn't need to be deleted.


Sounds like someones airline is getting scared ... :)



Now what to do if SWA goes to Anchorage also. :)
 
Sounds like someones airline is getting scared ... :)



Now what to do if SWA goes to Anchorage also. :)

Your flame bait is quite dull.
You might want to extract some of that energy and study for recurrent, or maybe getting a date.

Just an observation.
 
As per Bob Jordan, 13 AAI 737's are going to be converted this year, as per R. Mccrady, 168 AAI pilots are transitioning this year, as Per Mr K and SWAPA, 33 -800 deliveries this year and 40 -300 retirements, as per Mr K, adding a row (six seats) to all -700's...also keeping 22 AAI cites...adding service to MEX and ATL...so...are we growing??
 
I guess it depends if you look at the equation as the sum of two parts or one side growing while the other side shrinks. There is some pilot growth as SWA is conducting new hire classes. Our 737's are gonna take some effort to convert. They will be out of pocket for I believe 2 months once the process starts. We have 54 737s they say 32 will be international birds for a while? I'm not even sure I know what that means. Other than they will be the last to get converted. Or will they be converted at all? If those are all leased planes versus the ones we bought. Maybe it would be chepaer to break those leases vice converting them, and time that with the new aircraft orders. Dunno.
 
32 total aircraft will be converted to have BOTH rafts AND HF on the AirTran side. Currently only about 12 have both I believe. That will coincide with the increases you see in press releases from other cities in the route network after SOC to greatly increase our frequency to Mexico/Caribbean destinations. Selling Southwest tickets on AirTran planes until the reservation system can be upgraded to accomodate it.

I believe I read there will be a total LOSS of 7 hulls from the total fleet number at Southwest this year (2012). That includes deliveries - aircraft retirements + airtran converted aircraft. However, with the fleet increasing the number of seats, both in new aircraft AND the AirTran converting aircraft, ASM's should be close to the same. On the flip side, with 7 less aircraft, that's 70-80 fewer pilots needed, which should cover half the attrition this year, so no worries of furloughs, but no growth in terms of hiring just from the surface (I have no inside knowledge on that, just running the numbers).

And as far as "flame bait" from Outerlimits? I'd say he's closer than you think to the mark. There's a REASON the front-running city for the 717 base besides TPA was LAX. With the addition of Hawaii to the route network, plus all the upcoming Mexico/Caribbean, just add Anchorage, put 1/3 of our 717's out in L.A. to run up and down the West Coast connecting short-haul traffic to those cities, and East Coast feed to the same, and you have a serious threat to Alaska's presence on the West Coast.

Of course, we'll likely never serve some of the outlying cities Alaska does (those approaches are proprietary and personally, I'd rather watch videos of it - Alaska's nice to visit in the summer, that's about it), but the low-hanging fruit is there for the picking on the West Coast. I bet Alaska management is more concerned about it than it might appear...

My personal bet all along has been that TPA likely doesn't emerge as a large 717 base, only a small base, and quite a few 717's are moved to LAX in 2014.

Time will tell...
 
As per Bob Jordan, 13 AAI 737's are going to be converted this year, as per R. Mccrady, 168 AAI pilots are transitioning this year, as Per Mr K and SWAPA, 33 -800 deliveries this year and 40 -300 retirements, as per Mr K, adding a row (six seats) to all -700's...also keeping 22 AAI cites...adding service to MEX and ATL...so...are we growing??

You are also cutting some routes (PIT-PHL, SEA-GEG, SEA-BOI), some AT cities (6 of them), and adding MEX and SJD (in Mexico). Overall, it could be a wash. I wouldn't call that growing. Your JEP Binder may be growing, but you are only adding 2 cities that AT/SWA never flew to before, and taking away 6 cities that AT used to fly to.


Godspeed!


The OYSter
 
32 total aircraft will be converted to have BOTH rafts AND HF on the AirTran side. Currently only about 12 have both I believe. That will coincide with the increases you see in press releases from other cities in the route network after SOC to greatly increase our frequency to Mexico/Caribbean destinations. Selling Southwest tickets on AirTran planes until the reservation system can be upgraded to accomodate it.

I believe I read there will be a total LOSS of 7 hulls from the total fleet number at Southwest this year (2012). That includes deliveries - aircraft retirements + airtran converted aircraft. However, with the fleet increasing the number of seats, both in new aircraft AND the AirTran converting aircraft, ASM's should be close to the same. On the flip side, with 7 less aircraft, that's 70-80 fewer pilots needed, which should cover half the attrition this year, so no worries of furloughs, but no growth in terms of hiring just from the surface (I have no inside knowledge on that, just running the numbers).

And as far as "flame bait" from Outerlimits? I'd say he's closer than you think to the mark. There's a REASON the front-running city for the 717 base besides TPA was LAX. With the addition of Hawaii to the route network, plus all the upcoming Mexico/Caribbean, just add Anchorage, put 1/3 of our 717's out in L.A. to run up and down the West Coast connecting short-haul traffic to those cities, and East Coast feed to the same, and you have a serious threat to Alaska's presence on the West Coast.

Of course, we'll likely never serve some of the outlying cities Alaska does (those approaches are proprietary and personally, I'd rather watch videos of it - Alaska's nice to visit in the summer, that's about it), but the low-hanging fruit is there for the picking on the West Coast. I bet Alaska management is more concerned about it than it might appear...

My personal bet all along has been that TPA likely doesn't emerge as a large 717 base, only a small base, and quite a few 717's are moved to LAX in 2014.

Time will tell...

But then in 2015 you will start to dump the 717s. The leases start to expire, and the incoming 738s and 737-700s will replace outgoing 717s, 737-300s, and 737-500s. You can try Alaska if you want, but Alaska Air really does have the routes covered from SEA to ANC, JNU, FAI, etc. Many others have tried, and many have scaled back. They pretty much own it. And, they now have a strong foothold on the West Coast to Hawaii market, along with Hawaiian. Throw in UAL (very profitable) with plenty of SFO/LAX flights to all of the islands, AA and DL filling planes mainly with frequent flyers, and Allegiant looking at throwing 757s at the market too, it is no wonder GK decided to apparently back off for another year.


Godspeed!


The OYSter
 
2017, actually, before the 717's start going back, and only 4 in 2017, 5 in 2018, 4 in 2019, the real retirements don't start until 2020.

I could be totally off-base, but I don't think so. Throw a LCC into Anchorage and Juneau connecting down to LAX to go everywhere from Hawaii to Mexico to the Caribbean, and I think you'll see Southwest create their own niche.

They've done it before, we'll do it again. Looking forward to the future... it's so bright... I gotta wear shades. :cool:
 
I'd say Lears forecast of things to come at Southwest is probably as close as anyones (all subject to change of course).

I see us entering Hawaii in 2013 and possibly Anchorage to follow not far behind. In the meantime, continued AAI expansion into Mexico/Caribbean with the airframes/flight time they have available.

I really don't see us taking much business away from Alaska with either Hawaii or Alaska. We have plenty of frequent customers that want to go when we go...aka niche. There will be room for both carriers to make money and that's most likely how it will play out.

As far as cutting any cities from either the SW schedule or the AAI schedule will allow for those airframes to be put on more lucrative routes. Plain and simple...to make as much money with the airframe and crew as possible.

There are a TON of growth possiblities for SW in the future, just not much happening for 2012. And I'm good with that, just keep the profits rolling until then.

RF
 
Last edited:
I really don't see us taking much business away from Alaska with either Hawaii or Alaska. We have plenty of frequent customers that want to go when we go...aka niche. There will be room for both carriers to make money and that's most likely how it will play out.



RF
I agree.
Hawaii is a very large market and SWA has a very large network to draw from. If you guys come here you will do the same think AK did. Create your traffic from your route structure. Hell, you may even get feed from Lubbock! (insert little smily face here).
Seems to me, the more the legacies use RJ 's the more opportunity there is for other carriers to step into a market and create new business for them. I work for Hawaiian and we have a whole different business model. We go to we're we can fill up a wide body with people that want to go to Hawaii on Hawaiian Air. We really don't have much mainland feed. Interesting enough, we do do a lot of code sharing on our International flights, Virgin Blue, ANA etc.
 
2017, actually, before the 717's start going back, and only 4 in 2017, 5 in 2018, 4 in 2019, the real retirements don't start until 2020.

I could be totally off-base, but I don't think so. Throw a LCC into Anchorage and Juneau connecting down to LAX to go everywhere from Hawaii to Mexico to the Caribbean, and I think you'll see Southwest create their own niche.

They've done it before, we'll do it again. Looking forward to the future... it's so bright... I gotta wear shades. :cool:

Soooo, people will connect in LA all the way from ANC on SWA to go to Hawaii and the Caribbean? Really? Yeah, sounds like you might be off base. No offense. Most in ANC would fly nonstop from ANC to HNL and OGG on Alaska Airlines. Remember, your two biggest competitors on the Hawaii and Alaska routes actually have those States in their names. They have home field advantage, and set the fares and standards for everyone to those places. The rest just fly frequent fliers to those places pretty much. Good luck.

Godspeed!


The OYSter
 
Last edited:

Latest resources

Back
Top Bottom