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Avantair dumping?

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What I haven't been able to figure out, and this is not a knock against Avantair or any of the fractionals...

If NJA is losing soo many owners etc.. It doesn't appear they are heading directly to the other fractionals.. Otherwise I think we'd be seeing mass hiring at those places?

As it stands, no fractional is doing much of anything besides maybe some very limited hiring....

opinions/theories?
 
Its the same cycle that Doomed timeshare condos vacation clubs....
Owners who can afford to buy those who cant rent.
 
BentOver said:
What I haven't been able to figure out, and this is not a knock against Avantair or any of the fractionals...

If NJA is losing soo many owners etc.. It doesn't appear they are heading directly to the other fractionals.. Otherwise I think we'd be seeing mass hiring at those places?

As it stands, no fractional is doing much of anything besides maybe some very limited hiring....

opinions/theories?
Click to expand...

There's no big boom going on at the fractionals because the owners who are bailing are either going to just charter or they are buying their own planes. With used private jets still at a historic low prices, owners can buy their own aircraft instead of paying for a share at a fractional.

Yes, NJA is rumored to be losing owners. Speculation among the pilots is that NetJets inc. is cannibalizing its customers. Instead of having an owner renew a contract, they are selling them a whole used plane and then placing the plane on EJM's certificate. The owner gets to now have their own plane and make money off of side charter. NJA shrinks, EJM grows and NetJets Inc cashes in and NJA pilots lose. Just rumor though....
 
cldsfr79 said:
There's no big boom going on at the fractionals because the owners who are bailing are either going to just charter or they are buying their own planes. With used private jets still at a historic low prices, owners can buy their own aircraft instead of paying for a share at a fractional.

Yes, NJA is rumored to be losing owners. Speculation among the pilots is that NetJets inc. is cannibalizing its customers. Instead of having an owner renew a contract, they are selling them a whole used plane and then placing the plane on EJM's certificate. The owner gets to now have their own plane and make money off of side charter. NJA shrinks, EJM grows and NetJets Inc cashes in and NJA pilots lose. Just rumor though....
Click to expand...


It sounds like a valid rumor.... My only dissent from that opinion is that there are only so many un-occupied planes. With multiple owners per plane even if 2 or 3 owners were up for renewal, the fleet of available a/c would diminish very quickly, leaving partially owned a/c that cannot be just sold and put on EJM's certificate.

If 8 peeps owned an a/c and 1 or 2 left, what a/c are they going to be sold if there are not all that many left to be sold?
 
rajflyboy said:
Avantair needs to get some King Airs. They will be able to sell this aircraft much better than the Piaggio.
Click to expand...

Yeahhhh... The King Air joke has pretty much run its course. I've got tons of time in various Beech products, so I'm speaking with affection when I say that we're not a King Air.

We're not having any trouble selling shares. What we are having trouble with is keeping up with demand. Some of it's seasonal, some not.

I'm sure that you've noticed that although the economy has improved overall, we're still a long way from where we (the Fractional industry) needs it to be.

Again, I love the King Air. I'm a turboprop guy to the core. The Avanti and the King Air are two very different animals.
 
cldsfr79 said:
There's no big boom going on at the fractionals because the owners who are bailing are either going to just charter or they are buying their own planes. With used private jets still at a historic low prices, owners can buy their own aircraft instead of paying for a share at a fractional.

Yes, NJA is rumored to be losing owners. Speculation among the pilots is that NetJets inc. is cannibalizing its customers. Instead of having an owner renew a contract, they are selling them a whole used plane and then placing the plane on EJM's certificate. The owner gets to now have their own plane and make money off of side charter. NJA shrinks, EJM grows and NetJets Inc cashes in and NJA pilots lose. Just rumor though....
Click to expand...


The other reason is we are still in a very weak and precarious economy, so prospective owners are waiting to see if we go into another recession or worse.
 
G4dude said:
The other reason is we are still in a very weak and precarious economy, so prospective owners are waiting to see if we go into another recession or worse.
Click to expand...

The DJIA has been averaging over 11,000 for about a year. Unemployment is at 8.6%, and every other fractional is growing. I wonder when we can stop using the weak economy excuse and start using the real excuse of piss poor management?
 
fischman said:
The DJIA has been averaging over 11,000 for about a year. Unemployment is at 8.6%, and every other fractional is growing. I wonder when we can stop using the weak economy excuse and start using the real excuse of piss poor management?
Click to expand...

no, no wait a second.Hansell said it's the economy stupid...He couldn't be wrong or lying.. He and Eyer and Noe are standup guys don't cha know
 
fischman said:
The DJIA has been averaging over 11,000 for about a year. Unemployment is at 8.6%, and every other fractional is growing. I wonder when we can stop using the weak economy excuse and start using the real excuse of piss poor management?
Click to expand...


Are the other fracs growing? And unemployment is actually around 16 percent, when adding those who have given up looking for a job. By the way, owners tell me they still like NJA, but didn't like Sokol at all.
 
Last edited:
fischman said:
The DJIA has been averaging over 11,000 for about a year. Unemployment is at 8.6%, and every other fractional is growing. I wonder when we can stop using the weak economy excuse and start using the real excuse of piss poor management?
Click to expand...

WOW! All the way down to 8.6%, huh? Happy days are here again! Wait until that number is adjusted back up again after the holiday temp workers are done working.
 
G4dude said:
Are the other fracs growing? And unemployment is actually around 16 percent, when adding those who have given up looking for a job. By the way, owners tell me they still like NJA, but didn't like Sokol at all.
Click to expand...

Yes other fracs are growing. The Avantair guys claim they can barely keep up with demand. Rumor is that CitationAir is going to start hiring again.

I'd like to see the source of your 16% number. Even in the darkest of day of this recession, I never saw a number that high. Here's where I found the 8.6% number: http://www.google.com/publicdata/ex...ity:S&dl=en&hl=en&q=current+unemployment+rate
As you can see, the highest number in that graph is from the recession in the 80's when it got up to 10.8%

I think the owners like the pilots, but they aren't happy with NJA. Not only did they not like Sokol, the owners hated the man. Most of them are smart enough to know that Hansell is a branch from the same tree.
 
fischman said:
Yes other fracs are growing. The Avantair guys claim they can barely keep up with demand. Rumor is that CitationAir is going to start hiring again.

I'd like to see the source of your 16% number. Even in the darkest of day of this recession, I never saw a number that high. Here's where I found the 8.6% number: http://www.google.com/publicdata/ex...ity:S&dl=en&hl=en&q=current+unemployment+rate
As you can see, the highest number in that graph is from the recession in the 80's when it got up to 10.8%

I think the owners like the pilots, but they aren't happy with NJA. Not only did they not like Sokol, the owners hated the man. Most of them are smart enough to know that Hansell is a branch from the same tree.
Click to expand...

Check out the writings of Stephen Moore of the Wall Street Journal. Also, Arthur Laffer. Now, if Hansell's management philosophy is similar to Sokol's, then NetJets IS in trouble, because owners will go elsewhere.
 
G4dude said:
Check out the writings of Stephen Moore of the Wall Street Journal. Also, Arthur Laffer. Now, if Hansell's management philosophy is similar to Sokol's, then NetJets IS in trouble, because owners will go elsewhere.
Click to expand...

Every indication is that not only is it similar, but it is identical and more aggressive IN THE WRONG DIRECTION.
 
The unemployements rate announced by the US government among other items does not include:

1. those who have exhuaste dbenefits, give up, and no longer seek work
2. those who have taken jobs but less than what they want or are skilled for -- i.e., if one of the 495 becomes works the register at McDonalds, he is now "employed"
3. those who choose to work fewer hours in a week to spare their bretheren from being fired;
4. those who chose not to file for unemployment, like many carpenters and tradesman who were paid in cash for many years;
5. those who did not make enought $$ or work long enough to be eligible for benefits
6. youths between 16 and 18 who are now unemployed
 
Alternate Unemployment Charts

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
 
Yeah, but the F-9 quarterly finance employment figures clearly show an across the board U-3 upper tier triple lindy. That further supports the H-2 and H-3 demise as 3D lending will not out pace the Euro.
 
glasspilot said:
Yeah, but the F-9 quarterly finance employment figures clearly show an across the board U-3 upper tier triple lindy. That further supports the H-2 and H-3 demise as 3D lending will not out pace the Euro.
Click to expand...

Well, that clears it up! :p
 
NJAowner said:
The unemployements rate announced by the US government among other items does not include:

1. those who have exhuaste dbenefits, give up, and no longer seek work
2. those who have taken jobs but less than what they want or are skilled for -- i.e., if one of the 495 becomes works the register at McDonalds, he is now "employed"
3. those who choose to work fewer hours in a week to spare their bretheren from being fired;
4. those who chose not to file for unemployment, like many carpenters and tradesman who were paid in cash for many years;
5. those who did not make enought $$ or work long enough to be eligible for benefits
6. youths between 16 and 18 who are now unemployed
Click to expand...

Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting.
 
Fractional business like it or not is just another Ponzi scheme. Sooner or later people investing money in something like that will start smarting up IF NOT ALREADY SO and get their money in an own private plane or something else.
 

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