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Delta to retire 7600 pilots in next 15 years

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On Your Six

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2004
Posts
4,507
DATE:20/04/11
SOURCE:Air Transport Intelligence news
WATS 2011: Delta ponders pilot sources
By John Croft


Delta Air Lines is considering a "blue sky" theory for how to meet future pilot demands. Called "CAPT," for Civil Airline Pilot Training programme, the carrier stresses the idea is conceptual in nature and that it is not committed to the implementation, nor is it engaged in discussions with potential sponsors.

Speaking at the World Aviation Training conference in Orlando, Florida on 19 April, Arnie Kraby, Delta's manager of pilot selection, said a dramatic pilot shortage is a "gathering storm" that industry must address. Delta alone in the next 15 years will lose 7,600 pilots who will reach age-65 and retire, says Kraby.

CAPT would mainly look to high-tier college aviation programmes as means of cultivating pilots. "Statistical data indicates that a quality college education from a top-tier university or college provides us with a much better pilot in terms of fewer training failures, overall performance and reliability," notes Kraby.

The programme would include advanced jet aircraft simulation training and would be on par with military training, which produces skilled pilots qualified to fly high-performance aircraft in a shorter period compared with the civil sector, says Kraby. He is a former US Air Force pilot who flew Delta aircraft for 38 years,

"First we need to educate, mentor and train students," says Kraby. The CAPT programme would invite stakeholders across industry to come onboard as sponsors and jointly work out solutions. One of the first goals would be to build an outreach programme focused on middle- and high schools in an effort to stir up enthusiasm for the pilot profession.
CAPT candidates would be carefully screened to choose only those who have skills necessary to become a pilot. The candidate would have to maintain a 2.75 GPA, and 3.0 GPA for aviation courses. Upon earning a degree, the candidate would be required stay on as CAPT member and accrue 1,000 hours as a flight instructor at the university, thus providing a stable workforce for the school and to acquire FAA-required flight hours.
Graduates of the programme would be guaranteed an interview at a sponsoring regional airline.

Then, after meeting regional airline requirements and logging required number of hours for a mainline slot (Delta requires 1,200 hours), CAPT would offer an interview at a major airline sponsor-- "another light at the end of the tunnel", says Kraby.

With aviation training costs running $80,000-$100,000, Kraby stresses: "We've [industry] got to provide financial assistance for students if we are to get the [pilot] numbers." The programme might require that student loans be guaranteed by the sponsoring organisation. Another solution might be to have loans reduced by 5% per year up to a maximum of 50% for each year the candidate works for a sponsoring airline.




How many mainline pilots will actually go all the way to 65? Not many. Current ex-NWA senior pilots have their full pensions, and may pull the trigger at 62 after trying to collect some Social Security (or what's left anyway). Something to ponder. 7600 out of 12,500 is pretty good movement as long as the airline stays the same size. That would equate to 500 a year for 15 years, which would create huge movement upwards.


OYS
 
OMGZ! Pilot Shortage.:rolleyes:


7600 is a hard number of age 65 retirements. Doubtful all will go to 65. The numbers I heard were 2200 will be over 60 by this Summer, and 4000 will leave within 10 years. (7600 within 15 years according to this article) If Delta doesn't shrink, there will be a shortage. Our current contract ends late 2012, so hopefully higher wages and better benefits will follow too. If AT pilots get SWA wages, that can only help our situation.


OYS
 
OYS,

don't get too excited. management is meeting right now on a plan to replace them with outsourced pilots.

personally I don't think this "ride" is going to be anywhere near what the "pilot shortage" gurus are saying. Between mergers and dissolving smaller RJ jobs/positions (then moving them to mainline either by union agreement or off the street hiring) it will pretty much be "medium" hiring from say 2014 to 2018. Toss in foreign ownership and you got another variable in the mix as well.
 
again, management is just trying to dangle a carrot to increase the supply of pilots so they can throw a screw job at us later. There is no pilot shortage, and what learlove says is right. Mgt is meeting right now to figure out how to make sure that you have to work to age 65 in order to retire; and that is with a second job.
 
"First we need to educate, mentor and train students," says Kraby. The CAPT programme would invite stakeholders across industry to come onboard as sponsors and jointly work out solutions. One of the first goals would be to build an outreach programme focused on middle- and high schools in an effort to stir up enthusiasm for the pilot profession.


OYS

They successfully destroyed any enthusiasm for the airline profession over the last 10 years. Now the big idea is to "stir up enthusiasm".

This guy is as useless as Ray Lahood.
 
OYS,

don't get too excited. management is meeting right now on a plan to replace them with outsourced pilots.

personally I don't think this "ride" is going to be anywhere near what the "pilot shortage" gurus are saying. Between mergers and dissolving smaller RJ jobs/positions (then moving them to mainline either by union agreement or off the street hiring) it will pretty much be "medium" hiring from say 2014 to 2018. Toss in foreign ownership and you got another variable in the mix as well.

Unless they plan to go BK again, they just won't be able to do that. They just can't hire people from foreign lands, and foreign ownership is still limited. But, your guessing is amusing. If they had alternate plans, this guy would not have come out and suggested these programs. Make sense?


OYS
 
again, management is just trying to dangle a carrot to increase the supply of pilots so they can throw a screw job at us later. There is no pilot shortage, and what learlove says is right. Mgt is meeting right now to figure out how to make sure that you have to work to age 65 in order to retire; and that is with a second job.

Ex-NWA pilots have pensions, with senior ones having pretty darn good ones. After the BKs, Congress made it harder to dump those pensions, even in BK. So, many will go early or possibly sick out early and then could ride the disability train. Delta has to prepare for many possibilities.


OYS
 
Last edited:
Great. Thousands of regional captains waiting for this kind of hiring and DL wants to go to middle schools and offer to pay for training. Someone remind me what the last 15 years of my life was all about?
 
Great. Thousands of regional captains waiting for this kind of hiring and DL wants to go to middle schools and offer to pay for training. Someone remind me what the last 15 years of my life was all about?

Apparently, making your FO's dislike you and over inflating you sense of self-worth as an RJ pilot.
 
Great. Thousands of regional captains waiting for this kind of hiring and DL wants to go to middle schools and offer to pay for training. Someone remind me what the last 15 years of my life was all about?

Honestly think that would happen? Seriously?
 
7600 is a hard number of age 65 retirements. Doubtful all will go to 65. The numbers I heard were 2200 will be over 60 by this Summer, and 4000 will leave within 10 years. (7600 within 15 years according to this article) If Delta doesn't shrink, there will be a shortage. Our current contract ends late 2012, so hopefully higher wages and better benefits will follow too. If AT pilots get SWA wages, that can only help our situation.


OYS

Are you serious? I mean really. You sit here and call SW pilots arrogant, and you start a thread like this?

This is the pinnacle of arrogance. You have really lost all creditiblity with this one.


Makes me laugh though...

Enjoy your outsourcing.

RF
 
Apparently, making your FO's dislike you and over inflating you sense of self-worth as an RJ pilot.

This isn't a popularity contest. If some of the clowns we've hired would get their acts together instead of looking and performing like they fell out of bed 5 minutes ago, this job might actually be worth something. I happen to think it's not a joke. Guess I'm from a different generation or planet or something.
 
So I guess us ol' 61 pilots who have 1000 plus hours the hard way will have to watch jr with daddy's money get in the front of the line again!!! And they wonder why everyone prefers to work in a cubical than put up with this crap!!!!!
 
If Arnie Kraby and Delta were smart, they would consider re-interviewing candidates that were successful in the interview but had the rug pulled out from under them by the highly intelligent and suicidal shrinks that Delta contracts with to either ruin an individuals career dreams or make them come true.
 
What? Another year and a half?

EVERYONE of them will go to 65. Dude your smoking crack, look at the economy...please. Your clueless.
It's you're. You're. You are. Not your.

God d*mmit, I'm sick of idiots in front of me. Get the hell out of my seat.
 
if arnie kraby and delta were smart, they would consider re-interviewing candidates that were successful in the interview but had the rug pulled out from under them by the highly intelligent and suicidal shrinks that delta contracts with to either ruin an individuals career dreams or make them come true.

+1.....
 
i dont think there's even going to be 7500 new commercial pilots the next 15 years. And that's just delta vacancy numbers. They are screwed. They will have to raise pay and benefits.
 
i dont think there's even going to be 7500 new commercial pilots the next 15 years. And that's just delta vacancy numbers. They are screwed. They will have to raise pay and benefits.

Why not just continue to reduce capacity and raise ticket prices? People will buy whatever tickets are available. My point being that I see DL (and everyone else) going down that road rather than raising pay.
 
Considering Delta minimums are 1200 total and 1000 turbine, absolute worse case scenario, Delta will hire non-female regional FOs.
 
I left the airlines to run a flight school...let me tell you...there are not a whole lot of people who want to fly at an airline for aliving given the current state of affairs. We train mostly recreational pilots, there simply aren't many young folks who find the commercial pilot life to be something worth investing in.

As for outsourcing....to whom? Seriously, who will do it cheaper than American pilots? We are the India of the aviation field...that's why so many American pilots are flying for foreign carriers. The problem is simple; America is all about manipulating markets to make money. As a whole the country doesn't value the talent that keeps it going every day...we value whoever offers the opportunity for us to make the most money quickly. It's a sad state of affairs, but it will either have to change or people will have to start taking the bus. I see it every day - I tell young prospective pilots about the pay and lifestyle and they opt to just fly for fun if they can even afford that.

On the other hand, there are a lot of people like me out there...furloughed and found alternate work, left the field in dusgust, whatever...most of us would come back if the pay and the lifestyle were worth it. Will it ever be? Who knows. If supply and demand means anything, there might be hope, but when was the last time logic meant anything in commercial aviation?
 
On the other hand, there are a lot of people like me out there...furloughed and found alternate work, left the field in dusgust, whatever...most of us would come back if the pay and the lifestyle were worth it. Will it ever be? Who knows. If supply and demand means anything, there might be hope, but when was the last time logic meant anything in commercial aviation?

I have a love/hate relationship with it. I can't see myself commuting on the highway to work in an office and be home every night...that sounds awful. Also, what else am I going to do that has the potential to pay $100K/year for 14 days/month at work?

Then again...the mental and emotional toll is pretty severe...
 
I have a love/hate relationship with it. I can't see myself commuting on the highway to work in an office and be home every night...that sounds awful. Also, what else am I going to do that has the potential to pay $100K/year for 14 days/month at work?

Then again...the mental and emotional toll is pretty severe...

is this "at work" as in "behind the wheel" or did you figure in commuting to work, crash pad expenses, etc ?

remember most normal jobs weekends are off so those folks are working 20 days a month. So we (professional pilots) work what ? 14 ? 16? 18 ? Big whoop. we are gone away from our wives/kids/families the whole time.
 
I have a love/hate relationship with it. I can't see myself commuting on the highway to work in an office and be home every night...that sounds awful. Also, what else am I going to do that has the potential to pay $100K/year for 14 days/month at work?

Then again...the mental and emotional toll is pretty severe...

I have a lot of friends who work desk jobs that make $100k or pretty close to it, and these folks are in their late 20's early 30's. They do stuff like systems engineering, procurement, senior grants management, biotech. Granted these aren't the type of job you just walk into with no experience, but I'd say overall it took a lot less time for these folks to land those jobs than it takes an airline pilot to land that $100k position. 6 years of college to get a Masters degree and then 3 to 4 years work experience and you're there. Then you have 30+ years ahead of you making that six figure salary. You get to spend nights at home with spouse and kids and have every weekend and holiday off.

When I was in my early 20's a job like that sounded like a death sentence. Now, it sounds pretty good.
 

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