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Delta to retire 7600 pilots in next 15 years

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On Your Six

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2004
Posts
4,507
DATE:20/04/11
SOURCE:Air Transport Intelligence news
WATS 2011: Delta ponders pilot sources
By John Croft


Delta Air Lines is considering a "blue sky" theory for how to meet future pilot demands. Called "CAPT," for Civil Airline Pilot Training programme, the carrier stresses the idea is conceptual in nature and that it is not committed to the implementation, nor is it engaged in discussions with potential sponsors.

Speaking at the World Aviation Training conference in Orlando, Florida on 19 April, Arnie Kraby, Delta's manager of pilot selection, said a dramatic pilot shortage is a "gathering storm" that industry must address. Delta alone in the next 15 years will lose 7,600 pilots who will reach age-65 and retire, says Kraby.

CAPT would mainly look to high-tier college aviation programmes as means of cultivating pilots. "Statistical data indicates that a quality college education from a top-tier university or college provides us with a much better pilot in terms of fewer training failures, overall performance and reliability," notes Kraby.

The programme would include advanced jet aircraft simulation training and would be on par with military training, which produces skilled pilots qualified to fly high-performance aircraft in a shorter period compared with the civil sector, says Kraby. He is a former US Air Force pilot who flew Delta aircraft for 38 years,

"First we need to educate, mentor and train students," says Kraby. The CAPT programme would invite stakeholders across industry to come onboard as sponsors and jointly work out solutions. One of the first goals would be to build an outreach programme focused on middle- and high schools in an effort to stir up enthusiasm for the pilot profession.
CAPT candidates would be carefully screened to choose only those who have skills necessary to become a pilot. The candidate would have to maintain a 2.75 GPA, and 3.0 GPA for aviation courses. Upon earning a degree, the candidate would be required stay on as CAPT member and accrue 1,000 hours as a flight instructor at the university, thus providing a stable workforce for the school and to acquire FAA-required flight hours.
Graduates of the programme would be guaranteed an interview at a sponsoring regional airline.

Then, after meeting regional airline requirements and logging required number of hours for a mainline slot (Delta requires 1,200 hours), CAPT would offer an interview at a major airline sponsor-- "another light at the end of the tunnel", says Kraby.

With aviation training costs running $80,000-$100,000, Kraby stresses: "We've [industry] got to provide financial assistance for students if we are to get the [pilot] numbers." The programme might require that student loans be guaranteed by the sponsoring organisation. Another solution might be to have loans reduced by 5% per year up to a maximum of 50% for each year the candidate works for a sponsoring airline.




How many mainline pilots will actually go all the way to 65? Not many. Current ex-NWA senior pilots have their full pensions, and may pull the trigger at 62 after trying to collect some Social Security (or what's left anyway). Something to ponder. 7600 out of 12,500 is pretty good movement as long as the airline stays the same size. That would equate to 500 a year for 15 years, which would create huge movement upwards.


OYS
 
OMGZ! Pilot Shortage.:rolleyes:


7600 is a hard number of age 65 retirements. Doubtful all will go to 65. The numbers I heard were 2200 will be over 60 by this Summer, and 4000 will leave within 10 years. (7600 within 15 years according to this article) If Delta doesn't shrink, there will be a shortage. Our current contract ends late 2012, so hopefully higher wages and better benefits will follow too. If AT pilots get SWA wages, that can only help our situation.


OYS
 
OYS,

don't get too excited. management is meeting right now on a plan to replace them with outsourced pilots.

personally I don't think this "ride" is going to be anywhere near what the "pilot shortage" gurus are saying. Between mergers and dissolving smaller RJ jobs/positions (then moving them to mainline either by union agreement or off the street hiring) it will pretty much be "medium" hiring from say 2014 to 2018. Toss in foreign ownership and you got another variable in the mix as well.
 
again, management is just trying to dangle a carrot to increase the supply of pilots so they can throw a screw job at us later. There is no pilot shortage, and what learlove says is right. Mgt is meeting right now to figure out how to make sure that you have to work to age 65 in order to retire; and that is with a second job.
 
"First we need to educate, mentor and train students," says Kraby. The CAPT programme would invite stakeholders across industry to come onboard as sponsors and jointly work out solutions. One of the first goals would be to build an outreach programme focused on middle- and high schools in an effort to stir up enthusiasm for the pilot profession.


OYS

They successfully destroyed any enthusiasm for the airline profession over the last 10 years. Now the big idea is to "stir up enthusiasm".

This guy is as useless as Ray Lahood.
 
OYS,

don't get too excited. management is meeting right now on a plan to replace them with outsourced pilots.

personally I don't think this "ride" is going to be anywhere near what the "pilot shortage" gurus are saying. Between mergers and dissolving smaller RJ jobs/positions (then moving them to mainline either by union agreement or off the street hiring) it will pretty much be "medium" hiring from say 2014 to 2018. Toss in foreign ownership and you got another variable in the mix as well.

Unless they plan to go BK again, they just won't be able to do that. They just can't hire people from foreign lands, and foreign ownership is still limited. But, your guessing is amusing. If they had alternate plans, this guy would not have come out and suggested these programs. Make sense?


OYS
 
again, management is just trying to dangle a carrot to increase the supply of pilots so they can throw a screw job at us later. There is no pilot shortage, and what learlove says is right. Mgt is meeting right now to figure out how to make sure that you have to work to age 65 in order to retire; and that is with a second job.

Ex-NWA pilots have pensions, with senior ones having pretty darn good ones. After the BKs, Congress made it harder to dump those pensions, even in BK. So, many will go early or possibly sick out early and then could ride the disability train. Delta has to prepare for many possibilities.


OYS
 
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Great. Thousands of regional captains waiting for this kind of hiring and DL wants to go to middle schools and offer to pay for training. Someone remind me what the last 15 years of my life was all about?
 

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