NetJets in 2012/13 ???

[Willy21]

What would you want to own?

A Gulfsteam or Challenger or an ERJ 135 (Legacy)?

Not too many rich folks will pick the Commuter Plane

The Lecacy 450 and 500 might share a name with the corporate version of the ERJ 145 family, but that is where The similarities stop. I think those two airplanes are more in the mid-size (XL, Sovereign, X) category. From what I have heard the mid-size replacement will be announced further down the road.

The next announcement will be the Falcon maybe G200 replacement. I don't think the Lecacy 650 will win that bid. Think Bombardier.

 

[DAS at 10/250]

i heard that they were going to stop flying people and start hauling freight on demand with sorts in CMH,TEB,PBI,and ASP,all the furloughees will be recalled because of the high demand for this new product ,fractional freight. MRE's for crew meals, and the Blackberry's are traded in for beepers. ........China ?

Awesome! This 495'er got a laugh out of it.:laugh:

 

[jonjuan]

Think Bombardier.

Finally some correct info on here (sorry gnufighter). bd1xx

 

[jtf]

The Challenger 300 is too small to replace both the Falcon and G-200 (could probably replace the 200, but it doesn't make sense to replace just one airframe with another).

The 605 is big enough to replace both, but it is too expensive to replace the G-200.

The Legacy 650 is way bigger than the Falcon and the 605 and about the same price. G-IV/450 customers would reject it (Name and range issues) and it would be too expensive to replace the G-200 so it would really only be able to replace the Falcon and to replace one airframe with another once again doesn't make sense.

The Legacy 500 is slightly smaller than the G-200 and bigger than the X and Sovereign. I guess it could replace the G-200 and part of the X and Sovereign fleets, but the Sovereign and X both do important things for NJA customers that make them really unlikely to be replaced until there is some new airframe that is similar priced with the short field and range of the Sovereign and the nearly the speed of the X (not likely any time soon). Legacy 500 is therefore also unlikely.

Replacing the bigger Gulfstreams with Global Expresses is another event I find very unlikely unless Bombardier is willing to sell them so cheap that they could replace the G-IV/450 and the Falcon. I'm sure they are offering a way better price than G-450s, but unless they can undercut it at Falcon prices and roll all those customers in, it doesn't make enough sense. Gulfstream the brand is so well loved that the price would have to be insanely low to get even the majority of current owners to switch. If the prices were the same as the Falcon, I'm sure most of those customers would happily make the jump, but the amount of discount to make it happen is just too unlikely.

The G-250 makes the most sense to replace multiple fleets. It is nearly the size of the Falcon. It can be configured very much like the Falcon with 10 seats or like the G-200 to seat 9. It's design has solved many of the issues NJA has with the G-200 (but I'm sure not all). It has better performance than either that it would replace (except range for the very few Falcon EZs on property). It is considerably cheaper than the Falcon and it could pretty seamlessly use the G-200s for recovery while they are phased out without half the customers even seeing any difference.

That said, I have no idea what will happen. I'm just making a case as to why many of the rumors would be unlikely.

 

[rajflyboy]

The Lecacy 450 and 500 might share a name with the corporate version of the ERJ 145 family, but that is where The similarities stop. I think those two airplanes are more in the mid-size (XL, Sovereign, X) category. From what I have heard the mid-size replacement will be announced further down the road.

The next announcement will be the Falcon maybe G200 replacement. I don't think the Lecacy 650 will win that bid. Think Bombardier.

They probably don't even have something basic like TR's

 

[Willy21]

They probably don't even have something basic like TR's

I'll report back when I see one fly.

 

[Hogprint]

I totally agree with JJ. The Legacy 450/500 would be a perfect fit - new technology and the right size. Great replacement for the GTooUgly. I'll bet that the Phenom order was also a trial for Embrear with the 450/500 as a potential order if all goes well with the Phenom... That would be my uneducated guess.

Your uneducated guess is a good one.

Embrear all but said so on their website press release as of last Oct/Nov (I'll look and see if I can find it to post), and Company rec Mang brief all but alluded to it also. Let me be clear about that...and I quote, "it will fundamentally change the way we do business" (acquiring airframes).

If I were a betting man I'd place the pot on the team from Brazil.

 

[jonjuan]

Your uneducated guess is a good one.

Embrear all but said so on their website press release as of last Oct/Nov (I'll look and see if I can find it to post), and Company rec Mang brief all but alluded to it also. Let me be clear about that...and I quote, "it will fundamentally change the way we do business" (acquiring airframes).

If I were a betting man I'd place the pot on the team from Brazil.

Slowly but surely listening. . Too bad it a SA purchase puts pressure on US union jobs. Now if Sokol could only figure out how to send pilot jobs there.

 

[Hogprint]

I hear you JJ...

This is all I could find in the archives on the Embraer website...

I do remember reading shortly after the announcement that there were plans for bigger and better things but that seems to have been removed...or I can't find it now. Either way, I think it's a safe bet if the 300 meets all its gates we'll continue down that path.

 

[jonjuan]

I hear you JJ...

This is all I could find in the archives on the Embraer website...

I do remember reading shortly after the announcement that there were plans for bigger and better things but that seems to have been removed...or I can't find it now. Either way, I think it's a safe bet if the 300 meets all its gates we'll continue down that path.

The only problem is that many people who previously bought frax shares will never buy anything new, ever again after having suffered large depreciation losses. Will many buy new? Sure, however, many won't.
Say a Legacy 500 sells for $18 MM new or $1.1 a share. Many of these same customers would rather a usef G-IV share for the same price or a used G2000 share for MUCH less and MUCH more cabin. The P300 sales should tell the tale.

 

[jtf]

At the same time, those G-IVs and Falcon 2000s will be going away so there will be fewer and fewer used shares to buy. I have no idea how long that will take, but it will definitely be at least 2 or 3 years before NJA is taking any Embraer products and they will be coming in as replacement aircraft. Current customers may very well decide not to make the jump to whatever the new generation is and leave the program altogether when they aren't able to get into the larger and cheaper used categories, but hopefully if this is the case NJA will be able to replace them with new customers who do want to get into new airframes. We will just have to wait and see.

 

[HiSpeedFlyer]

The next announcement will be the Falcon maybe G200 replacement. I don't think the Lecacy 650 will win that bid. Think Bombardier.

Give the man a cigar. Or, as one of our illustrious teammates states here, "winner winner, chicken dinner".

 

[Grizz]

http://www.bombardier.com/en/corporate/media-centre/press-releases/details?docID=0901260d80162feb

 

[SDCFI]

That sucking sound you hear is the folks down in Savannah gasping for breath!

On the one hand I'm glad I'm a Bombardier stock holder. On the other hand I work for Flexjet so...

 

[gutshotdraw]

Utter. Freakin. Disaster.

 

[HiSpeedFlyer]

Utter. Freakin. Disaster.

How so??

 

[Starman]

The Savannah guys are just pissed that the river card didn't fill their inside straight. They went all in with the bluff and lost. Enjoy the Phenom boys.

 

[Grizz]

Gut - How is a large aircraft order a bad thing?

 

[gutshotdraw]

Bombardier can't match Gulfstream in dispatch reliability or meet advertised performance specifications. Combine that with certain "intangible" considerations, and the program will struggle.

Check back in three years and we'll know who is right, and who is broke.

 

[jonjuan]

Bombardier can't match Gulfstream in dispatch reliability or meet advertised performance specifications. Combine that with certain "intangible" considerations, and the program will struggle.
Check back in three years and we'll know who is right, and who is broke.

And yet some of the largest companies and wealthiest people in the world continue to buy and operate Globals. Apparently, all the rich global suckers are so dumb they all decided to trade in their Globals for Gulfstreams :bawling: How about intangibles of a bigger, wider cabin which the rich people who actually buy the airplane may like?
Stick to the cockpit, son.

 

[gutshotdraw]

My best friend flies a Global XRS for a large and growing company. The passengers like it, the pilots tolerate it, the mechanics hate it. The only reason it runs is because the wrenches give it TLC ALL the time. In a fractional environment, the airframe will have "issues."

 

[gutshotdraw]

And it has NEVER met the advertised range, endurance, or runway performance.

 

[gutshotdraw]

And JJ, at least you have good taste in movies.

"Get busy livin' or get busy dyin'"

 

[jonjuan]

And it has NEVER met the advertised range, endurance, or runway performance.

Nor has the Ultra, Beechjet 400XP, G200, Hawker 800.....should I continue????
Get my drift? If it were so bad in regards to advertised range, endurance, or runway perf, then again, why is it still purchased?
The exact same thing was said about the G200 and it was still bought in huge numbers despite getting spanked by the Challenger 300 in your performance metrics.
Besides, saying the Global doesn't meet "advertised numbers" is like us average guys calling Jennifer Aniston "a little plump."



Get over it dude. I'm sure Jeff Immelt, the GE CEO has.

 

[batsky2000]

The Global program will cost Netjets more in operating costs, i.e. Training and Maintenance, right now Flight Safety only has 1 Global sim in Wilmington and Bombardier has a policy to not allow any other training center such as Flight Safety to get a new type sim like the Global 7000/8000 if it will be a new type, for 5 years, and force you to get trained in Montreal, that is why Flight Safety does not have a Challenger 605 sim yet. If the 7000/8000 has Fly-by-wire like the G650, then my bet is that it will be a seperate type since the FAA said no to Gulfstream on making it a comon type with the G550 due to the Fly-by-wire advances, but from what I heard is that there may be a short differences type for guys who already fly a G550. Gulfstream has said that the G650 has met or exceeded all performance specs, and is on-time with its delivery schedule, never heard that from Bombardier..I don't see the logic with his decision to buy the Global product, sure they may be cheaper than a G650 now, but wait when they start to operate them...

 

[bluepost]

The Global program will cost Netjets more in operating costs, i.e. Training and Maintenance, right now Flight Safety only has 1 Global sim in Wilmington and Bombardier has a policy to not allow any other training center such as Flight Safety to get a new type sim like the Global 7000/8000 if it will be a new type, for 5 years, and force you to get trained in Montreal, that is why Flight Safety does not have a Challenger 605 sim yet. If the 7000/8000 has Fly-by-wire like the G650, then my bet is that it will be a seperate type since the FAA said no to Gulfstream on making it a comon type with the G550 due to the Fly-by-wire advances, but from what I heard is that there may be a short differences type for guys who already fly a G550. Gulfstream has said that the G650 has met or exceeded all performance specs, and is on-time with its delivery schedule, never heard that from Bombardier..I don't see the logic with his decision to buy the Global product, sure they may be cheaper than a G650 now, but wait when they start to operate them...

You don't think a 3 BILLION dollar order might change Bombardier's mind about the whole sim thing?

 

[jonjuan]

You don't think a 3 BILLION dollar order might change Bombardier's mind about the whole sim thing?

No way. Batsky has it all figured out based on what he hears.

 

[jonjuan]

Gulfstream has said that the G650 has met or exceeded all performance specs, and is on-time with its delivery schedule, never heard that from Bombardier..I don't see the logic with his decision to buy the Global product, sure they may be cheaper than a G650 now, but wait when they start to operate them...

The last clean sheet design from Bombardier was the Challenger 300. The Global was not a clean sheet. The CL300 met or exceeded EVERY delivery, and performance spec target you speak of and continues to outperform every product in it class. It's dispatch reliability is apparently incredible. They just delivered # 300 in 6 years. Let's see-the only other clean sheet Bombardier ever made was the 40/45 which again met or exceeded every one of your targets. You sound like some little old lady deciding to vote for Obama because you believe he'll take care of you.

 

[niteflyr]

Seems there may be an advantage to BH owned Flight Safety to get more Bombardier sims too. Follow the money!

 

[jtf]

I guess I was wrong on the Globals. NJA must have got an incredible deal from Bombardier while Gulfstream refused to budge. I thought that the Embraer order would have forced all the manufacturers to realize nothing is sacred at NJA any more. The sales and mx departments have their work cut out for them now. I hope it doesn't end up being like the Hawker 400 order- make the money on the sales and then eat it when the airplanes don't perform. I wonder how many loyal Gulfstream owners will walk or buy their own- probably from NJA trying to get rid of around 50 airframes there.