NetJets in 2012/13 ???

[jonjuan]

I'm getting the feeling we are "testing" Gulfstream. I don't know the specs of the 250, but if it's the size of the 200, I can't see that replacing the Falcon.

Piaggio? Doubt it. We are trying to streamline the product and reduce the number of OEMs. Embraer may well be working on a mid size that would foot the bill for Netjets US. It will all come down to reliability and cost. Something that was lost on our previous leadership. There was way too much emotion involved in the purchases made last decade.

Legacy 450/500. Embraer is giving massive discounts to sell their product right now.
No way on the 250.

 

[brokeflyer]

My two cents guess:

Here is my setup to my speculation: Sokol was quoted in the BAC magazine saying that NetJets maked a 4-5% return last year which is ok, but not stellar for an investor. He further stated that Berkshire doesn't turn their back on a company, but does shrink it if it's not a performer. Shrinking a company, cuts away that fat and waste and helps it become leaner but yet more profitable. It was also quoted that NetJets is eyeing China and hope to begin ops there in 2012-2013.

Putting this all together: NJ may continue to shrink to lose the remaining fat to make it more profitable, it's excesses planes however will be shipped to China so NJ wouldn't have to buy new planes. What I speculate will occur is that there will be an option for our pilots to operate in China. I think they would look for volunteers first and then once that is exhausted, they will ask guys in reverse seniority to go. If you don't you're furloughed. If you think that is not possible to be given that choice, you would be furloughed anyways because of the downsizing and movement of planes.

So in the end this would be a speculative guess to what the pilots "will not like in 2012-2013". I would start working on your Rosetta stone.

im sure they would love to do that, but there is a huge legality issue there.

 

[johnsonrod]

Legacy 450/500. Embraer is giving massive discounts to sell their product right now.
No way on the 250.

I totally agree with JJ. The Legacy 450/500 would be a perfect fit - new technology and the right size. Great replacement for the GTooUgly. I'll bet that the Phenom order was also a trial for Embrear with the 450/500 as a potential order if all goes well with the Phenom... That would be my uneducated guess.

 

[CRAWDADDY]

Who the heck knows? I've spoken to guys who googled the attorney and said, "maybe we shouldn't have gotten rid of the Teamsters."

 

[ce750drvr]

My money is on a large G250 order. It fits the medium/super mid size category well and would explain why Gulfstream has been expanding their Savannah facilities.

Asked CF when I was in his office last month and he said the G250 plans are DEAD. Not gonna happen.

 

[NachoMamma]

Asked CF when I was in his office last month and he said the G250 plans are DEAD. Not gonna happen.

The same is true of larger Embraer products. Dead as a door nail.

 

[imacdog]

Ah yes, one thing we can all count on is NJA PICs having the real inside scoop. :laugh:

 

[johnsonrod]

The same is true of larger Embraer products. Dead as a door nail.

Really? That's surprising since the G200 and the older Falcons would need to be replaced anyway... I understand that fleet consolidation is the goal. You'd think (but I guess I am wrong) that the newer technology of the Legacy 450/500 and this new relationship with Embraer would lead to possible deals down the road - I am sure Embraer would look for a deal to guarantee some high-profile placement. Not sure that FLOPS has the money or the guts to order the 450/500.

 

[rajflyboy]

Really? That's surprising since the G200 and the older Falcons would need to be replaced anyway... I understand that fleet consolidation is the goal. You'd think (but I guess I am wrong) that the newer technology of the Legacy 450/500 and this new relationship with Embraer would lead to possible deals down the road - I am sure Embraer would look for a deal to guarantee some high-profile placement. Not sure that FLOPS has the money or the guts to order the 450/500.

What would you want to own?

A Gulfsteam or Challenger or an ERJ 135 (Legacy)?

Not too many rich folks will pick the Commuter Plane

 

[727C47]

i heard that they were going to stop flying people and start hauling freight on demand with sorts in CMH,TEB,PBI,and ASP,all the furloughees will be recalled because of the high demand for this new product ,fractional freight. MRE's for crew meals, and the Blackberry's are traded in for beepers. ........China ?

 

[Willy21]

What would you want to own?

A Gulfsteam or Challenger or an ERJ 135 (Legacy)?

Not too many rich folks will pick the Commuter Plane

The Lecacy 450 and 500 might share a name with the corporate version of the ERJ 145 family, but that is where The similarities stop. I think those two airplanes are more in the mid-size (XL, Sovereign, X) category. From what I have heard the mid-size replacement will be announced further down the road.

The next announcement will be the Falcon maybe G200 replacement. I don't think the Lecacy 650 will win that bid. Think Bombardier.

 

[DAS at 10/250]

i heard that they were going to stop flying people and start hauling freight on demand with sorts in CMH,TEB,PBI,and ASP,all the furloughees will be recalled because of the high demand for this new product ,fractional freight. MRE's for crew meals, and the Blackberry's are traded in for beepers. ........China ?

Awesome! This 495'er got a laugh out of it.:laugh:

 

[jonjuan]

Think Bombardier.

Finally some correct info on here (sorry gnufighter). bd1xx

 

[jtf]

The Challenger 300 is too small to replace both the Falcon and G-200 (could probably replace the 200, but it doesn't make sense to replace just one airframe with another).

The 605 is big enough to replace both, but it is too expensive to replace the G-200.

The Legacy 650 is way bigger than the Falcon and the 605 and about the same price. G-IV/450 customers would reject it (Name and range issues) and it would be too expensive to replace the G-200 so it would really only be able to replace the Falcon and to replace one airframe with another once again doesn't make sense.

The Legacy 500 is slightly smaller than the G-200 and bigger than the X and Sovereign. I guess it could replace the G-200 and part of the X and Sovereign fleets, but the Sovereign and X both do important things for NJA customers that make them really unlikely to be replaced until there is some new airframe that is similar priced with the short field and range of the Sovereign and the nearly the speed of the X (not likely any time soon). Legacy 500 is therefore also unlikely.

Replacing the bigger Gulfstreams with Global Expresses is another event I find very unlikely unless Bombardier is willing to sell them so cheap that they could replace the G-IV/450 and the Falcon. I'm sure they are offering a way better price than G-450s, but unless they can undercut it at Falcon prices and roll all those customers in, it doesn't make enough sense. Gulfstream the brand is so well loved that the price would have to be insanely low to get even the majority of current owners to switch. If the prices were the same as the Falcon, I'm sure most of those customers would happily make the jump, but the amount of discount to make it happen is just too unlikely.

The G-250 makes the most sense to replace multiple fleets. It is nearly the size of the Falcon. It can be configured very much like the Falcon with 10 seats or like the G-200 to seat 9. It's design has solved many of the issues NJA has with the G-200 (but I'm sure not all). It has better performance than either that it would replace (except range for the very few Falcon EZs on property). It is considerably cheaper than the Falcon and it could pretty seamlessly use the G-200s for recovery while they are phased out without half the customers even seeing any difference.

That said, I have no idea what will happen. I'm just making a case as to why many of the rumors would be unlikely.

 

[rajflyboy]

The Lecacy 450 and 500 might share a name with the corporate version of the ERJ 145 family, but that is where The similarities stop. I think those two airplanes are more in the mid-size (XL, Sovereign, X) category. From what I have heard the mid-size replacement will be announced further down the road.

The next announcement will be the Falcon maybe G200 replacement. I don't think the Lecacy 650 will win that bid. Think Bombardier.

They probably don't even have something basic like TR's

 

[Willy21]

They probably don't even have something basic like TR's

I'll report back when I see one fly.

 

[Hogprint]

I totally agree with JJ. The Legacy 450/500 would be a perfect fit - new technology and the right size. Great replacement for the GTooUgly. I'll bet that the Phenom order was also a trial for Embrear with the 450/500 as a potential order if all goes well with the Phenom... That would be my uneducated guess.

Your uneducated guess is a good one.

Embrear all but said so on their website press release as of last Oct/Nov (I'll look and see if I can find it to post), and Company rec Mang brief all but alluded to it also. Let me be clear about that...and I quote, "it will fundamentally change the way we do business" (acquiring airframes).

If I were a betting man I'd place the pot on the team from Brazil.

 

[jonjuan]

Your uneducated guess is a good one.

Embrear all but said so on their website press release as of last Oct/Nov (I'll look and see if I can find it to post), and Company rec Mang brief all but alluded to it also. Let me be clear about that...and I quote, "it will fundamentally change the way we do business" (acquiring airframes).

If I were a betting man I'd place the pot on the team from Brazil.

Slowly but surely listening. . Too bad it a SA purchase puts pressure on US union jobs. Now if Sokol could only figure out how to send pilot jobs there.

 

[Hogprint]

I hear you JJ...

This is all I could find in the archives on the Embraer website...

I do remember reading shortly after the announcement that there were plans for bigger and better things but that seems to have been removed...or I can't find it now. Either way, I think it's a safe bet if the 300 meets all its gates we'll continue down that path.

 

[jonjuan]

I hear you JJ...

This is all I could find in the archives on the Embraer website...

I do remember reading shortly after the announcement that there were plans for bigger and better things but that seems to have been removed...or I can't find it now. Either way, I think it's a safe bet if the 300 meets all its gates we'll continue down that path.

The only problem is that many people who previously bought frax shares will never buy anything new, ever again after having suffered large depreciation losses. Will many buy new? Sure, however, many won't.
Say a Legacy 500 sells for $18 MM new or $1.1 a share. Many of these same customers would rather a usef G-IV share for the same price or a used G2000 share for MUCH less and MUCH more cabin. The P300 sales should tell the tale.