DAL sees more mergers and wants cash on hand to participate

[CesnaCaptn]

SE isn't that big of a deal...they had plenty of LAX/SEA guys get forced based up there and after a 3 day OE qual they were qualified. Local knowledge is great, but the operation moves on w/ meat in the seat. DAL guys could be flying the same routes in a week. Let's not think this is rocket science.

Baja.

Nevermind. Drinking and posting...

 

[clippyrip]

Why on earth would DL guys be fenced off SEA and LAX when we have pilot bases there already?

I was wondering the same thing. Not to mention bigger equipment in those bases. If we merged the senior AK Air guys would be fighting to get into the 330/76ER in SEA and 76ER in LAX.

 

[clippyrip]

Smarter move is Hawaiian THEN Alaska.....I'd rather merge 300 guys into wide-body than the 2000 merged pilots of AK and HA if they merge first.

Baja.

Great point! Plus, I'd rather merge with Hawaiian first. It's a big win with their routes and equipment.

 

[igneousy2]

SE isn't that big of a deal...they had plenty of LAX/SEA guys get forced based up there and after a 3 day OE qual they were qualified. Local knowledge is great, but the operation moves on w/ meat in the seat. DAL guys could be flying the same routes in a week. Let's not think this is rocket science.

Baja.

I should let this go but I can't.

It is not exceedingly difficult for a baby Alaska pilot to learn to operate in SE because the guy in the other seat has done it a lot. Also...this type of flying is a high percentage of our flying so it is probably easy to you but to suggest flying KTN-JNU In January is no big deal is ridiculous. Maybe, you've done too many Kodiaks or Red Dogs...those can make SE seem like a walk in the park.

 

[clippyrip]

I should let this go but I can't.

It is not exceedingly difficult for a baby Alaska pilot to learn to operate in SE because the guy in the other seat has done it a lot. Also...this type of flying is a high percentage of our flying so it is probably easy to you but to suggest flying KTN-JNU In January is no big deal is ridiculous. Maybe, you've done too many Kodiaks or Red Dogs...those can make SE seem like a walk in the park.

I agree but I think it would be a moot point. If Delta does merge, I see the milk run being one of the first to die on the vine. Second only to the ANC base getting closed and all interior AK runs getting handed off. I could see it being too much work, despite the $$$ and either handing it off or just letting go to the waste side.

It's just my humble opinion but I flown all over AK as well as seen Delta ops from the inside, coming from an outsiders perspective(former NWA). But I feel confident that is how it would play out.

 

[FBN0223]

Delta merging with Alaska would prompt the opening of an ANC and SEA base for Skywest, ASA, Republic, and Compass. Wherever possible, Delta prefers to fly DCI planes with higher frequency between city pairs. Sure, Delta is dumping many of the CRJ200, but thanks to ALPA, the EMB170 takes over where the CRJ200 left off.

More non-Delta pilots flying Delta/Alaska routes coming soon. Enjoy!!!

 

[clippyrip]

Delta merging with Alaska would prompt the opening of an ANC and SEA base for Skywest, ASA, Republic, and Compass. Wherever possible, Delta prefers to fly DCI planes with higher frequency between city pairs. Sure, Delta is dumping many of the CRJ200, but thanks to ALPA, the EMB170 takes over where the CRJ200 left off.

More non-Delta pilots flying Delta/Alaska routes coming soon. Enjoy!!!

Usually flame bait is more subtle. I guess this barely even would qualify as bait since its so obvious.

 

[FBN0223]

Usually flame bait is more subtle. I guess this barely even would qualify as bait since its so obvious.

Seriously clippyrip, where have you been in the last ten years? Ever hear of Compass? If you are fNWA, your 30% pay cut was used to buy these shiny new jets for non seniority list pilots to fly. In addition to your pay cut, many initial Captain positions were also given away which translates into the most substantial pay cut of all.

Did you know that Skywest just opened a MSP pilot base. Amazing, that after years of give-aways to the DCIs, you think the trend is going to magically reverse.

If a merger were to happen with AK, I'd be interested to hear why the trend of replacing mainline flying with DCI carriers would not continue in ANC and SEA.

 

[Dash8don]

I was wondering the same thing. Not to mention bigger equipment in those bases. If we merged the senior AK Air guys would be fighting to get into the 330/76ER in SEA and 76ER in LAX.

My point is what you think you bring to the table that needs to be fenced is "widebodies". I don't have a problem with that. Your career expectation is to be able to retire as a widebody captain. So, if we are going to talk fences, let's talk fencing off the narrowbody flying on the west coast. Why? My career expectation was to remain based on the west coast. It's part of the reason I chose AS. I have a lot of friends at Delta that are based in MSP/SLC that want SEA/LAX (PDX if you had it). My understanding is that SEA and LAX go very senior at DL. Do you even have narrowbodies based in SEA or LAX? Of course, this whole discussion is purely speculation at this point. I don't see a DL/AS tie-up in the near future. The stock price is too high, a lot of our value comes from our codeshare with AA and any buyout would undoubtedly start a bidding war driving the price higher. But then again who knows.

 

[clippyrip]

My point is what you think you bring to the table that needs to be fenced is "widebodies". I don't have a problem with that. Your career expectation is to be able to retire as a widebody captain. So, if we are going to talk fences, let's talk fencing off the narrowbody flying on the west coast. Why? My career expectation was to remain based on the west coast. It's part of the reason I chose AS. I have a lot of friends at Delta that are based in MSP/SLC that want SEA/LAX (PDX if you had it). My understanding is that SEA and LAX go very senior at DL. Do you even have narrowbodies based in SEA or LAX? Of course, this whole discussion is purely speculation at this point. I don't see a DL/AS tie-up in the near future. The stock price is too high, a lot of our value comes from our codeshare with AA and any buyout would undoubtedly start a bidding war driving the price higher. But then again who knows.

I hear ya and understand. I don't think either of us need to worry about staying west if we merge. I am an 08' hire and am already in SLC. In two years I'll be in SEA on the 76ER. If we merge you'll be put ahead of me on the SLI and that opens up the 76ER and possibly the 330 in SEA. Hopefully, we could just merge the list amicably and avoid fences. It's not like it's all bad...you can bring up our 73 rates and we offer equipment and international options.

If you want to know what I'd like to see it would be for DAL to drive up the price till it was toxic, pull out last minute and let AMR eat that poison pill, then we buy Virgin America and build our own West Coast feed. No offense, just a strategy.

 

[Sioux115]

SE isn't that big of a deal...they had plenty of LAX/SEA guys get forced based up there and after a 3 day OE qual they were qualified. Local knowledge is great, but the operation moves on w/ meat in the seat. DAL guys could be flying the same routes in a week. Let's not think this is rocket science.

Baja.

You guys probably wont even have to worry about it anymore since the rumor is Horizon/Alaska Express will be flying SE with the Megawhacker.

 

[General Lee]

I was wondering the same thing. Not to mention bigger equipment in those bases. If we merged the senior AK Air guys would be fighting to get into the 330/76ER in SEA and 76ER in LAX.

No, there would be more lines on the 737 in LAX for the Alaska guys (we have an LAX 737 base too), but the larger planes might be fenced. Just think, they could be flying allnighters to Columbus, Raleigh, and Memphis from LAX if there was ever a merger! And, as far as the SE goes, I bet it is tough, but so is Quito and Bogota. And, since they are currently flown on 737s, THEY MIGHT GET TO FLY THOSE ROUTES TOO. Enjoy it. If a merger like this ever does happen, I am sure it will be FANTASTIC for everyone. Take care, and have a Merry Xmas!


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I hear ya and understand. I don't think either of us need to worry about staying west if we merge. I am an 08' hire and am already in SLC. In two years I'll be in SEA on the 76ER. If we merge you'll be put ahead of me on the SLI and that opens up the 76ER and possibly the 330 in SEA. Hopefully, we could just merge the list amicably and avoid fences. It's not like it's all bad...you can bring up our 73 rates and we offer equipment and international options.

If you want to know what I'd like to see it would be for DAL to drive up the price till it was toxic, pull out last minute and let AMR eat that poison pill, then we buy Virgin America and build our own West Coast feed. No offense, just a strategy.

If there is a merger, the SLI may look a lot like the Nicalau award for USAir/AWA (precedent), which put the top 500 pilots at USAir East (who flew INTL widebodies) on the top of the list, and then relative below that. Since DL is a lot larger than USAir and flies a lot more INTL widebodies (and bigger widebodies), then it could likely have the top 3000 or 4000 pilots from DL, and then relative below that. Looking at career expecations, AK guys currently have 737s in their future, no widebodies, and no INTL routes other than Canada and Mexico. This is all speculation, but it has precedent behind it. And, nobody likes SLI stuff besides the lawyers and arbitrators, but a 12,000 pilot group next to a 1500 or 2000 pilot group won't be one for one, or even close. And, current stock price probably won't matter. Just remember, this is all speculation, and I hope all of you HAVE A FANTASTIC HOLIDAY!


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Lucky Strike]

Ever hear of Compass? If you are fNWA, your 30% pay cut was used to buy these shiny new jets for non seniority list pilots to fly. .

It was a 40% pay cut plus work rule changes that amounted to a total of about 50% total pay cut. Trust me...I was there.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

How about Alaska buys HI and then with the existing DAL Code share agreement DAL can sell 50% of the seats on each HI, now AS 330...... (DAL would be forced to buy AS because leaving them out there would expose too much of their route network, that is why the next option is the better play)

Or how about DAL makes a play for HI, AMR and LUV go after AS making DAL's case that they need to buy AS to keep their feed. Not much the DOJ can say about that one.

Branson wants a bed partner, and he knows his butt is about to get kicked. Virgin America is too.

LCC needs a partner, but I suspect they will be sold as two separate pieces.

AMR and B6's stocks have been trading at very high volume recently. I suspect a merger of these two in the next six months. (Shortly after the ALPA vote at B6)

With the new Brazilian-US Open Skies, NKS (Spirit's) value is a lot less than it used to be. The have lots of Latin and South American route authorities that are very valuable in to these slot restricted countries, and more open skies agreements will hurt their overall value and niche. They will need a bed mate as well. DAL or AMR would be a good fit, but both are waiting to see what goes on with these "in process" open skies talks. If other countries follow Brazil's lead NKS's overall attractiveness goes way down.

Republic knows it is in trouble, wants to join Star and may pull it off with someone. I suspect though that they will be one of the causalities of consolidation. The have MKE and part of DEN. SWA will overpower them in MKE and SWA and UAL will kill them in DEN.