Grow Baby GROW! WN/AAI

[Ty Webb]

I, for one, enjoy the new General Lee.

Me too . . . Kind of reminds of of the old "Politeness Man" character in National Lampoon magazine. :laugh:

To Candide:

Interesting, but some growth may be from utilization as well . . . AirTran gets an extra hour a day out of our airplanes, if SWA did that with the existing fleet, you'd get another 500+ hours a day of flying, which would be several hundred more Captains and FO's. Of course, a lot of that flying is CDO's and redeyes.

 

[texman]

Supposedly, I think our aircraft utilization went from 11 hours a day to 13.6 starting this fall????? Any one know?

 

[scoreboardII]

25% is a goal, like 15 ROI

Gupwn,

And when the smaller stations aren't running 15 flights a day they may go bye bye.

I disagree, you'll remember the ground ops folks just contractually "gave away" any station with fewer than 12-15 flights to subcontractors. Now do those places make sense? Yes. The same guy who checks you in for SWA in Moline is the same guy who checks you in for Republic, all contract workers.

 

[BrickTop]

Be interesting to see SkyWest and their prorate flying either get AXED or expand vastly.

 

[MILPILOT17]

Be interesting to see SkyWest and their prorate flying either get AXED or expand vastly.

It may expand, but it will be with a different company.

 

[RedDogC130]

Be interesting to see SkyWest and their prorate flying either get AXED or expand vastly.

It can't expand under the swa pilot contract....no codeshare allowed

 

[Crzipilot]

Not yet.........

 

[MILPILOT17]

Never!

 

[Skybus]

Time will tell. This one WILL be different. GK has stated that in addition to the smaller markets that we DO plan to continue, there are MANY more similar in nature particuarly out west. IE.. Jackson Hole. IF this works as planned there WILL be pleanty of growth. Grow baby Grow.

 

[OldManPilot]

Just bringing the AAI aircraft up to the WN utilization will open up about an additional 10-15 % growth.

 

[fiel12]

We're acquiring Airtran. Airtran is essentially 25% the size of SWA. Hence the immediate 25% growth. Get it?

In the wake of the Airtran acquisition, us whiny F/Os are left with a monstrously large company (700 aircraft) that will be pretty dang resistant to growth. For example, if we were to grow 10% each year, here's what we would need in net aircraft deliveries:

2012: 70 net aircraft (770 total airplanes)
2013: 77 net aircraft (847)
2014: 84 net aircraft (931)
etc. etc.

Possible? I guess anything's possible. Likely? Umm..no.

And to put the 50 737s Airtran has on order in perspective: If every single one of the aircraft were all delivered immediately upon conclusion of the acquisition, it would only represent 7% growth.

So...until I hear about 787 orders and far international, don't expect me to get too excited about this huge growth potential.

Exactly.

 

[texman]

Just bringing the AAI aircraft up to the WN utilization will open up about an additional 10-15 % growth.

Brother you hit the nail on the head. A lot of people need to see that.

 

[Jeff Helgeson]

not exactly....

Exactly.

.....growth does not equate to how many A/Cs are on property. That was a good, but very linear outlook. With the addition of AAI and better aircraft utilization, there is the potential for substantial growth.

SWA is not the largest domestic carrier in the USA, but they carry the most passengers, offer more seats/ASMs. Growth and profit come from how many flights and seats you offer on those flights, not how many pieces of equipment you own or have on property.

If you equate upgrade by strictly how many pilots per A/C, your view will not be accurate. It is a good start. However, the more A/Cs and flights to cover, you will need more reserves and pilots to cover training, vacation, etc. to maintain the operation.

 

[Jeff Helgeson]

correct

Brother you hit the nail on the head. A lot of people need to see that.

I believe you are on the money with that.

 

[Jeff Helgeson]

Keep it that way

It can't expand under the swa pilot contract....no codeshare allowed

SWA could hit the smaller markets with the B717, without having a contract regional. You can argue that with a regional SWA could cover more markets and make more money. Once you go down that road, the company could replace mainline flying with contract regional flying. Plus, you do not have the same quality control of the product.