Grow Baby GROW! WN/AAI

[JetMonkey]

When Southwest purchased Morris Air in 94 they didn't hold on to all their routes. Eugene OR, Colorado Springs and Fresno were all dropped and not added to the Southwest route system. I suspect they will use the same approach this time around and thoroughly analyse each route from every city Airtrain serves..

 

[DieselDragRacer]

I, for one, enjoy the new General Lee.

I kinda miss the old smart-ass General myself.

 

[fiel12]

I can't believe I am going to say this but I agree with General Lee.

And when the smaller stations aren't running 15 flights a day they may go bye bye.

We're entering uncharted waters. The only constant is change.

Gup

Funny. I was thinking the same thing.

 

[Candide]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/230392-southwest-welcomes-airtran-on-board-sees-immediate-25-growth

Nothing like growth potential to STFU a bunch of whiney F/Os. Once we bust out of the US border.... Look out world.

We're acquiring Airtran. Airtran is essentially 25% the size of SWA. Hence the immediate 25% growth. Get it?

In the wake of the Airtran acquisition, us whiny F/Os are left with a monstrously large company (700 aircraft) that will be pretty dang resistant to growth. For example, if we were to grow 10% each year, here's what we would need in net aircraft deliveries:

2012: 70 net aircraft (770 total airplanes)
2013: 77 net aircraft (847)
2014: 84 net aircraft (931)
etc. etc.

Possible? I guess anything's possible. Likely? Umm..no.

And to put the 50 737s Airtran has on order in perspective: If every single one of the aircraft were all delivered immediately upon conclusion of the acquisition, it would only represent 7% growth.

So...until I hear about 787 orders and far international, don't expect me to get too excited about this huge growth potential.

 

[Crzipilot]

I would expect that 25% growth figure to be whittled down, ALOT.

Haven't taken the time to look at the cities, but take a Florida city example. Currently SWA goes into TPA MCO RSW fairly well. With Airtran they pickup SRQ, about a 45 min. drive to either TPA RSW. SWA flies into ORF, AT flies into PHF, another 30/45 minute drive.

AT flies into LEX, SWA into SDF....another 45 min. drive between cities.

Not saying they won't keep them, just seems a little "close" for typical SWA service.

 

[Ty Webb]

I, for one, enjoy the new General Lee.

Me too . . . Kind of reminds of of the old "Politeness Man" character in National Lampoon magazine. :laugh:

To Candide:

Interesting, but some growth may be from utilization as well . . . AirTran gets an extra hour a day out of our airplanes, if SWA did that with the existing fleet, you'd get another 500+ hours a day of flying, which would be several hundred more Captains and FO's. Of course, a lot of that flying is CDO's and redeyes.

 

[texman]

Supposedly, I think our aircraft utilization went from 11 hours a day to 13.6 starting this fall????? Any one know?

 

[scoreboardII]

25% is a goal, like 15 ROI

Gupwn,

And when the smaller stations aren't running 15 flights a day they may go bye bye.

I disagree, you'll remember the ground ops folks just contractually "gave away" any station with fewer than 12-15 flights to subcontractors. Now do those places make sense? Yes. The same guy who checks you in for SWA in Moline is the same guy who checks you in for Republic, all contract workers.

 

[BrickTop]

Be interesting to see SkyWest and their prorate flying either get AXED or expand vastly.

 

[MILPILOT17]

Be interesting to see SkyWest and their prorate flying either get AXED or expand vastly.

It may expand, but it will be with a different company.