Comair is done

[no1pilot2000]

I was reading an article posted on Willflyforfood.com web site mentioning Comairs situation with the reduction of their CRJ fleet. For those of you who fly or have flown for regional airlines (be it regional jots or turbo props), which regional aircraft will be the future for the regional airline business.

 

[SpauldingSmails]

It interesting in that Delta announced they would be halving Comair. They've already halved Comair once over the past six years, they're seeking to do it again.

This time they've said something. They could have gradually drawn down the 50-seaters stringing everyone along for the ride in the dark.

With that, I wish my best to the Comair employees in finding greener pastures.

 

[WSurf]

I was reading an article posted on Willflyforfood.com web site mentioning Comairs situation with the reduction of their CRJ fleet. For those of you who fly or have flown for regional airlines (be it regional jots or turbo props), which regional aircraft will be the future for the regional airline business.

Just saw an article that ATR is gearing up for big Orders.... They seem to believe the TurboProps will make a comeback taking over all 50 Seat RJ's. They say on hour flights that the ATR will burn 35-40% less fuel then the 50 seat RJ's. There ATR 600's are in flight testing and they are also looking to develop a 80-90 seat ATR. But who knows????

 

[mesaserf]

It is a NEW development. They are not interviewing CRJ guys anymore. Maybe been 8-10 months since the "new" policy

Incorrect, I personally know of one female Mesa pilot who was recently hired with a class date days from now and another (a guy) who as we speak is interviewing.

Both with nothing but RJ PIC time.

 

[igneousy2]

Just saw an article that ATR is gearing up for big Orders.... They seem to believe the TurboProps will make a comeback taking over all 50 Seat RJ's. They say on hour flights that the ATR will burn 35-40% less fuel then the 50 seat RJ's. There ATR 600's are in flight testing and they are also looking to develop a 80-90 seat ATR. But who knows????

You write this as if this was just figured out. Pax hate small jets. The only thing they hate more than small jets is turboprops. I wish you were right that t-ps were about to make a come back but I'm afraid that the future is turning out to be 100+ seat jets flown by pilots with no benefits at the rate of 35 for fo's and 70 for Captains. The role of large Tps I think will end up being the smallest markets with only one or two airlines competing.

 

[tiffanytaylor]

This might be a scare tactic but there will still be furloughs and Comair still may be sold. Maybe Comair will have a better future but in the meantime, update your resume.

 

[no1pilot2000]

If passengers dislike small jets and turbo props, maybe the Embraer 170 can be the regional airliner of the future.

 

[say again]

If passengers dislike small jets and turbo props, maybe the Embraer 170 can be the regional airliner of the future.

Yeah, maybe. Have you been around lately? It already is, along with the crj 700/900.

 

[P38JLightning]

Pax "prefer" jets, sure. But if the Q/ATR/etc. really burn upwards of 40% less fuel on comparable segments and the vast majority of pax are buying their tix off of search engines with the winning criteria being whoever is $0.01 cheaper, will they (in any statistically significant numbers, not just a few here or there) actually take their business elsewhere over this? Even if the alternative to doing so is significantly higher ticket prices? I don't think that will be the case at all. Especially as fuel stays extrenely high at 7X/bbl even during the worst economy since the big bang and is chomping at the bit to surge at the first sign of a (real) recovery. T-props will be around and I predict in ever increasing numbers especially when things get better. The days of roaring economies and 13/bbl oil (the "OMFG let's order RJ's by the thousands!!!!!) are over.

 

[Top Gum]

I don’t know much about union legalities but I’ve always wondered why we all can’t have a common trade union like some other professions? If this were the case the airline would have to pick from the trade unions seniority list and along with that would come set salaries. This eliminates having to start at the bottom each time some foolish company wants to refresh a pilot group to save a nickel.

 

[WayBack]

I don’t know much about union legalities but I’ve always wondered why we all can’t have a common trade union like some other professions? If this were the case the airline would have to pick from the trade unions seniority list and along with that would come set salaries. This eliminates having to start at the bottom each time some foolish company wants to refresh a pilot group to save a nickel.

ALPA is not a Union, it's an association.
They refer to themselves as an association now because a Union get's things done, unlike ALPA. So now they're just a magazine provider with a voice on "Cap Hill".....oh, by the way. What happened to all these new flight/duty hour requirements that ALPA was going get? They promised better rest requirements during the hearing of the Colgan crash. Last time I checked, you can get 8 hours a "rest" still.

 

[79%N1]

. Last time I checked, you can get 8 hours a "rest" still.

And last week, I flew 5 legs after exactly 8 hrs "rest" two times! When is someone going to provide us with relief?

 

[igneousy2]

Pax "prefer" jets, sure. But if the Q/ATR/etc. really burn upwards of 40% less fuel on comparable segments and the vast majority of pax are buying their tix off of search engines with the winning criteria being whoever is $0.01 cheaper, will they (in any statistically significant numbers, not just a few here or there) actually take their business elsewhere over this? Even if the alternative to doing so is significantly higher ticket prices? I don't think that will be the case at all. Especially as fuel stays extrenely high at 7X/bbl even during the worst economy since the big bang and is chomping at the bit to surge at the first sign of a (real) recovery. T-props will be around and I predict in ever increasing numbers especially when things get better. The days of roaring economies and 13/bbl oil (the "OMFG let's order RJ's by the thousands!!!!!) are over.

This has always been true. Eagle management in the mid nineties was spouting this exact same logic until they saw their market share start dropping once jets started showing up in markets. TPs do have their place but it's NYC-ROC or BUF. The 100 seat RJs are the "mad dog" killers that can take over routes like BOS-JFK or DCA-NYC.

 

[P38JLightning]

This has always been true. Eagle management in the mid nineties was spouting this exact same logic until they saw their market share start dropping once jets started showing up in markets. TPs do have their place but it's NYC-ROC or BUF. The 100 seat RJs are the "mad dog" killers that can take over routes like BOS-JFK or DCA-NYC.

Yeah but again, that was the glory days of 13/bbl oil (when it crept gently up to 35/bbl it was called an unsustainable bubble LOL!) and revenue was pouring in with massive business traffic and mind blowing walk up fares, that were actually being sold. The inherent inefficiencies of RJ's were largely masked during that time because of insanely low fuel (those days are gone forever...worst economy in generations and oil hovers in the 70's chomping at the bit to rise at the slightest uptick in economic indicators) AND revenue was bat dung crazy high.


The low operating costs (despite the sky high CASM even considering gas was almost free) made RJ's a nuclear weapon against any competitor that didn't have as many as someone else did. Hubs were raided at will and high value customers were poached left and right. There were even some seats left over that could be fire sale dumped into the burgeoning search engine market as pure profit since only a few high rollers subsidized every other seat's costs.

The "RJ revolution" was only partially about RJ's being jets. And even that part was comparing ratty little tubes some without lavs or flight attendants, APU's and in rare cases even pressurization. Not all "feeders" even gave full or in some cases any mileage credit. It was a radically different era.

Factor in today's so called "low" fuel prices (and tomorrow's higher prices) and quantum leaps in comfort with the Q series and new ATR, etc plus the fact that far more tickets are bought from the web with the lowest fare, to the billionth of a penny being the deciding factor, and I doubt very many people at all are going to actively choose to fly a given airline just to get on an RJ. Take a row out of the Q and give them industry leading leg room and put a TV in the seat, and most of the few who cared enough to switch just because of the two cans on the back will change their minds.

7x/bbl is the new norm, and if the economy roars back, 1XX/bbl will be the norm. The cost spread/CASM/trip cost of RJ's is crushing compared to "next gen" props (so to speak) on a LOT of routes currently served by RJ's. There will always be RJ's, but there is a lot of room to draw the fleet down over and above the massive culling of the 50 seat fleet that we're seeing.

 

[WSurf]

Yeah but again, that was the glory days of 13/bbl oil (when it crept gently up to 35/bbl it was called an unsustainable bubble LOL!) and revenue was pouring in with massive business traffic and mind blowing walk up fares, that were actually being sold. The inherent inefficiencies of RJ's were largely masked during that time because of insanely low fuel (those days are gone forever...worst economy in generations and oil hovers in the 70's chomping at the bit to rise at the slightest uptick in economic indicators) AND revenue was bat dung crazy high.


The low operating costs (despite the sky high CASM even considering gas was almost free) made RJ's a nuclear weapon against any competitor that didn't have as many as someone else did. Hubs were raided at will and high value customers were poached left and right. There were even some seats left over that could be fire sale dumped into the burgeoning search engine market as pure profit since only a few high rollers subsidized every other seat's costs.

The "RJ revolution" was only partially about RJ's being jets. And even that part was comparing ratty little tubes some without lavs or flight attendants, APU's and in rare cases even pressurization. Not all "feeders" even gave full or in some cases any mileage credit. It was a radically different era.

Factor in today's so called "low" fuel prices (and tomorrow's higher prices) and quantum leaps in comfort with the Q series and new ATR, etc plus the fact that far more tickets are bought from the web with the lowest fare, to the billionth of a penny being the deciding factor, and I doubt very many people at all are going to actively choose to fly a given airline just to get on an RJ. Take a row out of the Q and give them industry leading leg room and put a TV in the seat, and most of the few who cared enough to switch just because of the two cans on the back will change their minds.

7x/bbl is the new norm, and if the economy roars back, 1XX/bbl will be the norm. The cost spread/CASM/trip cost of RJ's is crushing compared to "next gen" props (so to speak) on a LOT of routes currently served by RJ's. There will always be RJ's, but there is a lot of room to draw the fleet down over and above the massive culling of the 50 seat fleet that we're seeing.

Very True! And don't forget all the tree huggers! The Turbo Props Envirnomental Footprint is much lower then other planes. And everyone is trying to be on the save the planet kick.

And I am sorry to say, but the Dash and ATR are WAY more comfortable then either one of the 2 50 seat RJ's. I have to deadhead regularly and its always nicer to be on the Dash 8 then the RJ.

 

[DrewBlows]

Does Comair still have the no-furlough clause for pilots who were on the list during the strike?

 

[makersmarc]

Does Comair still have the no-furlough clause for pilots who were on the list during the strike?

No-furlough disappeared for everyone during BK.

 

[WSurf]

Yea, many of us lost the no-furlough clause during BK.

 

[General Lee]

Yea, many of us lost the no-furlough clause during BK.

Where are you these days WSurf? Still a Captain in New Bern?


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[agonyairfo]

To back up a few posts...

There is nothing wrong with turboprops besides being unsexy and slow. Sorry it's true. I know becuase I flew a Dash 8-100 for 3,500 hours. Like they say, it's like riding a moped so I am not personally busting on it. But those little European compact cars are pretty unsexy too. And they are sprouting up everywhere.

P38lightning and a few of you others are right about it being about the $$ numbers. On one hand I agree, "people don't like turboprops." But, people also don't like coach seats for example. But it isn't about "want" it is about how much they are willing to pay and what they perceive they can get for it. And, the public's perceptions change over time anyway. Detroit used to crank out 30 foot long big blocks and Toyota made the uncool cheap little car.

If over certain stage lengths the ATR or Q400 beats the pants off other 70 seat jets and on enough routes, then there are going to be t-props period. And if oil goes up (I should really be saying when oil goes up), then there will be even more of them.

The basic turboprop complaints are that it is noisy, slow, old, cramped, dangerous, etc. Everyone of those is bunk for those who know better. I don't know why there have never been any sort of ad campaigns produced by Bombardier. I think the flying public could embrace the Q400 if like someone mentioned they took out a row of seats, added tv's, and changed the public perception so that the Q400 is viewed as it is; a technologically advanced, new, fuel efficient, green friendly, roomy, quiet airliner. The Q400 has the noise complaint beat and I think it also has the same interior cross section as a CRJ 900 so it's no more cramped. The age thing is as simple as telling people that it isn't a WWII bomber but newer than anything else that they are currently flying on.

My pro bono marketing work for Bombardier:

Glossy pic of a Q400 flying over a lush country side covered with a new windmill field with grazing animals below. (Like a light bulb going off, John Q Public makes the connection that even though the windmill is a very old invention, it's being used in a very modern and efficient way. And the airplanes propeller has also been around for a long time, but it now too is being used in a very modern and efficient way.) Voila, the Q400 is the next Prius. Fast forward...Cheryl David breaks a champagne bottle over the nose of the 1,000th delivery. The end.