MESA .08 Fri, .07 Mon, .06 Tues........

[go!ng for broke]

http://www.centreforaviation.com/ne...-us-yields-continue-to-rise-shares-fall/page1

 

[rene]

What makes you so confident, Rene?

What makes me confident and even optimistic are these facts:

• YTD operating income of $6.1 million inlcudes all aircraft rents at pre-petition rates and rents for aircraft until the leases are rejected. Leases were not rejected until earlier this month. Adjusting for these costs will be a huge improvement in profitability.
• There are more than $2 million per month in legal and other restructuring costs.
• Mesa continues to operate extremely well with fantastic completion factors, on time performance, passenger complaints, and lost bags.
• I may be in the minority but I am not as concerned about Airways as you may be.
• Mesa will emerge with a very strong balance sheet an very profitable income statement, a very low cost structure and veru good operating performance.
• I believe this will position them well to compete for key business which will begin to expire over the next 2-4 years.

You may be entitled to your own opinion but you are not entitled to your own facts.

 

[pilot22]

What makes me confident and even optimistic are these facts:

• YTD operating income of $6.1 million inlcudes all aircraft rents at pre-petition rates and rents for aircraft until the leases are rejected. Leases were not rejected until earlier this month. Adjusting for these costs will be a huge improvement in profitability.
• There are more than $2 million per month in legal and other restructuring costs.
• Mesa continues to operate extremely well with fantastic completion factors, on time performance, passenger complaints, and lost bags.
• I may be in the minority but I am not as concerned about Airways as you may be.
• Mesa will emerge with a very strong balance sheet an very profitable income statement, a very low cost structure and veru good operating performance.
• I believe this will position them well to compete for key business which will begin to expire over the next 2-4 years.

You may be entitled to your own opinion but you are not entitled to your own facts.

so I am hearing that Express Jet has lost their contract with United due to such poor perforamance out of Chicago. They may have to furlough pilots and FAs by the end of this year. Rumor on the street is that CHQ and Mesa are going to pick up the flying.

hhhmmm

Discuss

 

[ex j-41]

What makes me confident and even optimistic are these facts:

• YTD operating income of $6.1 million inlcudes all aircraft rents at pre-petition rates and rents for aircraft until the leases are rejected. Leases were not rejected until earlier this month. Adjusting for these costs will be a huge improvement in profitability.
• There are more than $2 million per month in legal and other restructuring costs.
• Mesa continues to operate extremely well with fantastic completion factors, on time performance, passenger complaints, and lost bags.
• I may be in the minority but I am not as concerned about Airways as you may be.
• Mesa will emerge with a very strong balance sheet an very profitable income statement, a very low cost structure and veru good operating performance.
• I believe this will position them well to compete for key business which will begin to expire over the next 2-4 years.

You may be entitled to your own opinion but you are not entitled to your own facts.

The future of Mesa rests on US Airways. Mesa is going to have to work very hard to get financing for the future. And that is going to come at a cost. I just don't see Mesa having much money to play with after US Airways gets through with them and paying high interest rates. Now after the fuloughes there are only senior pilots left, then there are the training costs, moving expenses yada yada yada....

 

[brokedash]

What makes me confident and even optimistic are these facts:

• YTD operating income of $6.1 million inlcudes all aircraft rents at pre-petition rates and rents for aircraft until the leases are rejected. Leases were not rejected until earlier this month. Adjusting for these costs will be a huge improvement in profitability.
• There are more than $2 million per month in legal and other restructuring costs.
• Mesa continues to operate extremely well with fantastic completion factors, on time performance, passenger complaints, and lost bags.
• I may be in the minority but I am not as concerned about Airways as you may be.
  [*]Mesa will emerge with a very strong balance sheet an very profitable income statement, a very low cost structure and veru good operating performance.
• I believe this will position them well to compete for key business which will begin to expire over the next 2-4 years.

You may be entitled to your own opinion but you are not entitled to your own facts.

You say I'm entitlted to my own facts, however your next to last bullet point has yet to be proven true.

Honestly, US is all Mesa has left and they will have an easier time escaping BK with a contract extenison in place. Otherwise the creditors will have to look at descison based on Mesa's main operating income in question beyond June 30, 2012. That will be around a year and half out by the time the creditors finish reviewing reorginazation plans and making a descion on MAGs viability.

In the near term who else is left for Mesa to hook up with? Mesa and Delta will not happen as long as Northwest mgmt runs DL; UA has all but limited there exposure to Mesa with the 700 settelment; CO won't be looking for new partners until after the merger is complete. That really only leaves AA but I don't think anything will occur there soon, even though there is talk of an Eagle divestature.

Beyond the majors it is highly unlikely any established LCC will be shopping for large scale regional feed, so even if something did tranpire for Mesa it is highly unlikely it will envlove a large amount of aircraft.

Mesa could try Go! on the mainland hubbing and spoking from major non-hub cities, but the most recent example of this type of operation did not wether well (Skybus).

My point is the US deal will be a pivotal part of any reogranization attempt as it is Mesa's primary source of income and without a sealed deal to extend, in my mind, leaves the creditors having to figure if it is worthwhile to continue MAG or not.

 

[brokedash]

Also keep in mind Airways seems bent on forcing a price on Mesa that they may not be able to sustain and make money.

 

[sayrejm]

Who said was Mesa with E190's.

But hey ASA still sucks more than Mesa.

ASA was PFT and Mesa was never PFT

Using this logic: Netjets was once PFT too. I guess they suck. But hey if you can make 150K a year flying a medium cabin business jet after 10 years then I'll suck all you want me to.

 

[rene]

You say I'm entitlted to my own facts, however your next to last bullet point has yet to be proven true.

Honestly, US is all Mesa has left and they will have an easier time escaping BK with a contract extenison in place. Otherwise the creditors will have to look at descison based on Mesa's main operating income in question beyond June 30, 2012. That will be around a year and half out by the time the creditors finish reviewing reorginazation plans and making a descion on MAGs viability.

In the near term who else is left for Mesa to hook up with? Mesa and Delta will not happen as long as Northwest mgmt runs DL; UA has all but limited there exposure to Mesa with the 700 settelment; CO won't be looking for new partners until after the merger is complete. That really only leaves AA but I don't think anything will occur there soon, even though there is talk of an Eagle divestature.

Beyond the majors it is highly unlikely any established LCC will be shopping for large scale regional feed, so even if something did tranpire for Mesa it is highly unlikely it will envlove a large amount of aircraft.

Mesa could try Go! on the mainland hubbing and spoking from major non-hub cities, but the most recent example of this type of operation did not wether well (Skybus).

My point is the US deal will be a pivotal part of any reogranization attempt as it is Mesa's primary source of income and without a sealed deal to extend, in my mind, leaves the creditors having to figure if it is worthwhile to continue MAG or not.

I won't argue with your points, but I will point out that 1. Mesa does not need any more cash to emerge from Bankrupcy. They have over 50 million now and are building positive cash every month. 2. Mesa doesn't necessarily need an extension with Airways to emerge. I agree it would be preferrable but at what price. The remaining two years will be very profitable and they have lots of negotiating capital going into a 2012 termination. It would be very costly for Airways to either lose or replace those aircraft. 3. UAL is very happy with Mesa and i see no reason that Mesa will not compete successfully ( financially, and operationally) for UAL/CAL business scheduled to expire over the next 2-3 years. I would be much more concerned about the future of Expressjet and Republic. Expressjet has 240 aircraft expiring in 2015, virtually no profit and the highest costs in the industry. Republic is burning cash and may run out before years end.

If I have learned anything about this business it is this. Things change. Stay tuned

Be professional and Fly Safely, we are in this together.

 

[resetjet]

I won't argue with your points, but I will point out that 1. Mesa does not need any more cash to emerge from Bankrupcy. They have over 50 million now and are building positive cash every month. 2. Mesa doesn't necessarily need an extension with Airways to emerge. I agree it would be preferrable but at what price. The remaining two years will be very profitable and they have lots of negotiating capital going into a 2012 termination. It would be very costly for Airways to either lose or replace those aircraft. 3. UAL is very happy with Mesa and i see no reason that Mesa will not compete successfully ( financially, and operationally) for UAL/CAL business scheduled to expire over the next 2-3 years. I would be much more concerned about the future of Expressjet and Republic. Expressjet has 240 aircraft expiring in 2015, virtually no profit and the highest costs in the industry. Republic is burning cash and may run out before years end.

If I have learned anything about this business it is this. Things change. Stay tuned

Be professional and Fly Safely, we are in this together.

Really? Try this on for size:

The May MOR has been submitted.

Summary:

Total Revenue: $65,632,000
Total Operating Expenses: $65,974,000
Total Non-Operating Income (Expense): ($1,291,000)
Income (Loss) Before Reorganization Items and Income Taxes: ($1,632,000)
Income (Loss) Before Discontinued Operations: ($2,633,000)
Net Income (Loss): ($2,633,000)

Total Assets: $928,518,000
Total Liabillities: $828,552,000
Total Liabilities and Stockholder's Equity: $928,518,000
Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of Period: $60,833,000
Cash and Cash Equivalents at Beginning of Period: $57,484,000
Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents: $3,350,000

 

[resetjet]

"Mesa Air Group has lost USD6.2 million dollars in the year-to-May-2010, according to its monthly operating expense report filed with the US bankruptcy court. Its operating income of USD6.2 million was overwhelmed by non-operating expense and other expenses.
The filing reveals airline operations make between USD61 million and USD72.6 million monthly for a total of USD337.1 million in revenues year to date to 31-May-2010. Expenses for the five months totalled USD330.8 million. Operating income for the five months ranged from a loss of USD341,000 in May to USD2.1 million in January. It listed total operating income of USD6.3 million.
It listed total current assets as of 31-May-2010 of USD928.5 million and liabilities of USD828.5 million, ratcheted down from its January bankruptcy filing which showed liabilities of USD852.1 million. Total assets at bankruptcy were USD958.1 million.
Mesa has spent USD11.5 million in re-organisation expenses since its January filing, burning through between USD691,000 to USD2.590 million monthly. Its executive compensation for the 17 executives listed in the filing was approximately USD200,000 per month with CEO Jonathan Ornstein the top earner at about 37,000 monthly.
Mesa Air Group has received approximately USD7.6 million in disbursements from the court over the five months, but that pales in comparison to the approximately USD200 million disbursed to Mesa Airlines during the period and about USD9 million for Freedom Airlines which recently lost its contract as a Delta Connection and approximately USD30 million for Mesa Air Group Airline Inventory Management."

 

[cybourg10]

I won't argue with your points, but I will point out that 1. Mesa does not need any more cash to emerge from Bankrupcy. They have over 50 million now and are building positive cash every month. 2. Mesa doesn't necessarily need an extension with Airways to emerge. I agree it would be preferrable but at what price. The remaining two years will be very profitable and they have lots of negotiating capital going into a 2012 termination. It would be very costly for Airways to either lose or replace those aircraft. 3. UAL is very happy with Mesa and i see no reason that Mesa will not compete successfully ( financially, and operationally) for UAL/CAL business scheduled to expire over the next 2-3 years. I would be much more concerned about the future of Expressjet and Republic. Expressjet has 240 aircraft expiring in 2015, virtually no profit and the highest costs in the industry. Republic is burning cash and may run out before years end.

If I have learned anything about this business it is this. Things change. Stay tuned

Be professional and Fly Safely, we are in this together.

Hahahahaha.

We'll see how safe Mesa is with UAL/CAL and how much XJT is in danger here in a few months. I'll enjoy watching you stroke Mesa until then.........might want to recheck your XJT highest cost bullcrap statement. UAL loves Mesa so much they don't want them anymore.

 

[tommyknock83]

so I am hearing that Express Jet has lost their contract with United due to such poor perforamance out of Chicago. They may have to furlough pilots and FAs by the end of this year. Rumor on the street is that CHQ and Mesa are going to pick up the flying.

hhhmmm

Discuss

Alleged.

 

[www.]

I won't argue with your points, but I will point out that 1. Mesa does not need any more cash to emerge from Bankrupcy. They have over 50 million now and are building positive cash every month. 2. Mesa doesn't necessarily need an extension with Airways to emerge. I agree it would be preferrable but at what price. The remaining two years will be very profitable and they have lots of negotiating capital going into a 2012 termination. It would be very costly for Airways to either lose or replace those aircraft. 3. UAL is very happy with Mesa and i see no reason that Mesa will not compete successfully ( financially, and operationally) for UAL/CAL business scheduled to expire over the next 2-3 years. I would be much more concerned about the future of Expressjet and Republic. Expressjet has 240 aircraft expiring in 2015, virtually no profit and the highest costs in the industry. Republic is burning cash and may run out before years end.


If I have learned anything about this business it is this. Things change. Stay tuned

Be professional and Fly Safely, we are in this together.

I will point out that:

2. USAir and UAL CAN xc their agreements with MESA since MESA went into BK. To make money you must have a product that someone wants. 700/900 and if you were leasing airframes to MESA and they came to you in BK asking you to take less than you are currently paying, knowing there is someone in the wings willing to pay equal what you are currently getting, why would you agree to less? You wouldn't. No more 700/900 and since you have no more product you have no more flying with USAir or UAL. USAir would not loose the airframes the next person, hmmmm maybe Skywest INC, would step right in. St. George is not very far from PHX. UAL happy with MESA? Hmm actions speak louder than words in this business. And what happened to the 700s MESA was to fly for UAL?

I will agree with you on Republic. The only thing making money is their contract flying for mainlines. Their new ones are loosing money.

ExpressJet. Short term contracts with UAL. Very short. The wild card on this one is CAL & UAL getting together.

 

[ex j-41]

Scott Kirby said in the last crew news that US Air is UNABLE to CX the mesa agreement. US Airways is not in bk. Mesa is the only one that can do that.

 

[DHPFLYN]

so I am hearing that Express Jet has lost their contract with United due to such poor perforamance out of Chicago. They may have to furlough pilots and FAs by the end of this year. Rumor on the street is that CHQ and Mesa are going to pick up the flying.

hhhmmm

Discuss

Now that is funny. You might want to check your hearing. CAL wants nothing to do with Mesa. So wait and see what happens when the CAL/UAL merger happens. BYE BYE MESA