737-800 question to gary kelly

[maxblast72]

Man this board (Profession) has some serious losers. When you are typing things like this to someone, who does not have a job, does that make you feel good about yourself? It makes me feel sorry for you, you have no class.

Maybe this guy is tired of every ATA guy blaming SWA for the fact that the ATA CEO did not have a good business plan that eventually led to the demise of ATA. It is not the SWA pilots fault that ATA went out of business.

 

[maxblast72]

FAA.gov says Southwest has 546 737s... I don't know how accurate that is.

Let's say they get 50 737-800s.

The average flight attendant there brings home 30/hr, x 110/mo is about $3300, let's not even throw in per-diem, or open time.

3300x12 is about 40,000

40k x 50 is 2,000,000

2,000,000 x let's say 4 per airplane is 8,000,000.

That's 8 million they save by not having another FA.

My numbers are all just a guess. Not sure if the 8mil would be covered by the increased revenue of having a bigger plane.

I know 8mil really isn't that much money in the grand scheme of things either for an airline as massive as Southwest.

Much more complicated than just the F/A cost. Ownership cost and fuel costs would be much larger players than F/A cost.

Using 50 737-800 aircraft with 20 extra seats flying 13 hrs/day, 350 miles per hour, 365 days a year, 75% load factor, and Southwest's average RASM of about $.10/ASM, results in about an extra $125 million per year to Southwest's top line for 50 737-800s instead of 737-700s.

Of course that is assuming 75% load factor and RASM inline with Southwest system average. You can bet Gary Kelly and crew have been crunching the numbers for years and it is interesting that they have stuck with -700 so far. During recessions, it is much easier to manage RASM with smaller airplanes than larger ones.

 

[contrail67]

Gary doesn't have the balls to make an aggressive move. He's too busy coverng 6.

But on a brighter note....... 35 more captains got downgraded yesterday.

Gup

It is all about damage control right now.....1 extra F/A will not mean the route/aircraft will become unprofitable.

 

[NuGuy]

Heyas,

The FA issue is a non-event. At on the DC-9 at NWA, there are simply "add" patterns (trips) where the extra FA chases the -40s/-50s around.

Hardly earth shattering.

Nu

 

[PropPiedmont]

Who cares about 800's. If SWA got 800s they we be used for retirement a/c replacements, not growth. We need a bigger airplane, not a bigger 737. 767s, 777s, or 787s would be worth getting excited about, not 738s.

 

[CaptSeth]

Maybe this guy is tired of every ATA guy blaming SWA for the fact that the ATA CEO did not have a good business plan that eventually led to the demise of ATA. It is not the SWA pilots fault that ATA went out of business.

ATA CEO? You must be referring to John Dennison then. Yes, I remember him. He actually had a very good business plan that led to the demise of ATA, much to the detriment of the flying public, ATA Employees, and the DoD.

He's sitting on the Board at SW, now, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[contrail67]

Who cares about 800's. If SWA got 800s they we be used for retirement a/c replacements, not growth. We need a bigger airplane, not a bigger 737. 767s, 777s, or 787s would be worth getting excited about, not 738s.

And that won't happen. Can you imagine all the money the pilots would have to come up with to "buy" the type rating on the new aircraft?!

 

[ASADFW7]

FAA.gov says Southwest has 546 737s... I don't know how accurate that is.

Let's say they get 50 737-800s.

The average flight attendant there brings home 30/hr, x 110/mo is about $3300, let's not even throw in per-diem, or open time.

3300x12 is about 40,000

40k x 50 is 2,000,000

2,000,000 x let's say 4 per airplane is 8,000,000.

That's 8 million they save by not having another FA.

My numbers are all just a guess. Not sure if the 8mil would be covered by the increased revenue of having a bigger plane.

I know 8mil really isn't that much money in the grand scheme of things either for an airline as massive as Southwest.

They already pay three of them so it is only an increase of one FA, it would be better to divide the number of seats per aircraft by the FAs to see the cost comparisons.

 

[MILPILOT17]

And that won't happen. Can you imagine all the money the pilots would have to come up with to "buy" the type rating on the new aircraft?!

Good one dude! You really showed all those SWA guys making sub-standard pay rates! Keep up the good work!!!!!

 

[Mea25000]

SWA configuration would allow alot more then 20 more seats on a 800. You could put 45 more people in back. I think ATA had 180 on theirs.

 

[Tejas-Jet]

How many Captains at Southwest are retiring prior to 65?

Can't speak for the entire system, but in my corner of the world, had a Captain recently tell me he is going out in January. He is 61 ...I think.

Recently had one under 60 go out early...just because.

 

[737tanker]

Though the -800 would require another FA, therefore messing with the SWA - any crew can operate any aircraft - philosophy, if the price is right I am sure they would do it in a heartbeat.

The problem with the -800s is not the 4th F/A. When I upgraded in 2000 the VP of FltOps my upgrade class that the problem was interchangeability. That is if a full -300 or -700 broke and SWA replaced it with a -200 (we had them at that time) or a -500 you only upset 15 passengers. If SWA had a full -800 that was broken and replaced it with a -700 you would upset 50 passengers. He did say however that if SWA needed to grow at a city and was restricted due to slots (at the time he was talking SNA) or gates then SWA would get -800s for the needed expansion.
Another thing to consider is that Gary has been quoted as saying that you can't make money going to Hawaii in a -700, you need something bigger. The new CBA allows codeshare among then Hawaiian Islands, not to/from Hawaii. So to utilize he provision that allows codeshare among the Hawaiian islands then SWA needs something bigger than a -700, and that probably means SWA will get the -800.

 

[mt2]

FAA.gov says Southwest has 546 737s... I don't know how accurate that is.

Let's say they get 50 737-800s.

The average flight attendant there brings home 30/hr, x 110/mo is about $3300, let's not even throw in per-diem, or open time.

3300x12 is about 40,000

40k x 50 is 2,000,000

2,000,000 x let's say 4 per airplane is 8,000,000.

That's 8 million they save by not having another FA.

My numbers are all just a guess. Not sure if the 8mil would be covered by the increased revenue of having a bigger plane.

I know 8mil really isn't that much money in the grand scheme of things either for an airline as massive as Southwest.

I know it's not this simple but:
With @40 extra seats it shouldn't be too hard to make up for the extra F/A in a LGA or Hawaii market. I don't think they'd need 50 -800's but a smaller number might be a good move.

 

[Ky.BrownBourbn]

I know it's not this simple but:
With @40 extra seats it shouldn't be too hard to make up for the extra F/A in a LGA or Hawaii market. I don't think they'd need 50 -800's but a smaller number might be a good move.

Probably will not happen, They already have a "Bastard" of the fleet, the 25 -500's they don't know what to do with and can't get rid of because no one will take them!

Pilots were just told that the Boeing guys were gonna start showing up in Dallas to ride in the Sim and 5 guys from Boeing were approved by Feds to ride the Jumpseat and rumor has it it's to work on the 73 replacement.

Apparently, SW corporate has been courting the Embraer sales people in Dallas to see their products as well as another manufacturer! Looks like they want a replacement A/C sooner rather than later AND the 787 catastrophe may have SW getting antsy.

KBB

 

[Saluki Dawg]

That one's probably just a rumor, as Boeing published an Article the other day stating they would continue making the 737 into the 2020's. I have heard that Boeing may re engine the current fleet of Aircraft with a more fuel efficient engine until a viable replacement is developed, but that's all I've heard WRT a 737RS.

As for the -800 rumor, I've heard that they actually went and test flew a -900ER, and that's the airplane they're more interested in. I guess we will see.

 

[slaquer5]

There's a famous story about Herb having breakfast with some new hire pilots and stating that without a doubt he was NOT looking at buying Morris Air- Now way, Now how. Well, he left the breakfast and went to the pre-arranged press conference to announce the acquisition of Morris. Go figure....

That was Paul Sterbins (sp) the VP of flt ops at the time not herb.

 

[Mea25000]

900ER is a Joke... I don't think boeing has been able to give them away. CAL bought a few but I don't think they are even happy with them.

 

[Saluki Dawg]

CAL wasn't happy with the original -900 series. The -900ER is the newer version with a higher MATOW and much better range than the original -900 series. CAL loves the -900ER, and is taking quite a few of these deliveries over the next few years. This is the model that SWA test flew and what they were looking at.

 

[nimtz]

CAL wasn't happy with the original -900 series. The -900ER is the newer version with a higher MATOW and much better range than the original -900 series. CAL loves the -900ER, and is taking quite a few of these deliveries over the next few years. This is the model that SWA test flew and what they were looking at.

It's a shiner turd then the original with some cooler instruments. As for performance, nothing like touching down in MCI for gas on a transcon in the summer. Did I mention 2K less thrust per side then the 800? Rough to get those intersection take offs that SW likes in places like Vegas. Well crafted by bean counters at Boeing to meet needs of bean counters at CAL...

 

[StopNTSing]

CAL wasn't happy with the original -900 series. The -900ER is the newer version with a higher MATOW and much better range than the original -900 series. CAL loves the -900ER, and is taking quite a few of these deliveries over the next few years. This is the model that SWA test flew and what they were looking at.

I don't know what model it was (hopefully not the ER), but in LAS this past summer one could often see a lonely CAL 737 holding short of 7L waiting (...and waiting...and waiting....) for ATC to build them a hole in the arrivals while everyone else was launching from 25R. Reminded me of the bad old days trying to get a -200 out of there in the summer.