Pilot shortage

[jmreii]

While everyone waits for the tooth fairy, I will continue picking money off the trees that line the roadway.

 

[pilotyip]

answers

We get yip. Everything else in our life goes up but pilot salaries and airline fares just can't. Every year my home owners insurance goes up (+10% for 2010), food prices, gas prices, dry cleaners, gym membership, home alarm, Mexican dude mowing the yard, water bill, postage, medical insurance, direct tv, cell phones, pool chemicals, beer, property taxes and most of all, management pay and perks. As far as people you know changing airlines for $1, I don't believe that one bit especially if it involves connecting or less convenient times. I would say $20-$30 each way may get someone to consider a connection vs nonstop. Even then most people that I know are not that cheap.

Sounds like you have all the answers, you should start an airline, make it the greatest place to work in the aviation business. Screw those consumers, what do they know about anything, force them to pay more to make pilots happy. That will show them.

 

[imacdog]

Sounds like you have all the answers, you should start an airline, make it the greatest place to work in the aviation business. Screw those consumers, what do they know about anything, force them to pay more to make pilots happy. That will show them.

Better tell that to the Southwest pilots who make very respectable wages, have high job satisfaction, and work for one of the most successul companies in aviation. Go ahead YIP, head on over to the majors board and give it a shot. I'm sure they're dying to hear from you.

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Yip,

Do you have a reading comprehension problem? Almost EVERYTHING in our lives goes up. That is a fact of life. It is not screwing the consumer, it is just the cost of doing business. So, of all the items I listed in my previous post they are all screwing the consumer? I can still shop around and maybe get a better deal, but it is still going to be more than 5 or 10 years ago. What is your problem with pilots making a good wage? It is almost as if you want pilot salaries to stagnate or fall because your career did not pan out as hoped. My current hourly rate at Dal is 76 cents less per hour than the same equipment/seat in 1992. 17 YEARS AGO. Do you think the consumer has been getting a good deal or ripped off? 3-5 dollar increase will not drive passengers in a meaningful way. I don't have all the answers, never claimed to. However your only answer is pilots should be giddy to get to fly a plane and never, ever consider to expect an increase in compensation to at least keep up with the cost of living. With your line of thinking we would never get a raise and fall further and further behind so eventually the only thing we can afford is a one bedroom apt. and 10-15 year old beater car. Thanks but no thanks. I expect better, and I believe most other pilots do to. The last 10 years was a once in a lifetime reset of our compensation structure and it is time to rebuild.

Sounds like you have all the answers, you should start an airline, make it the greatest place to work in the aviation business. Screw those consumers, what do they know about anything, force them to pay more to make pilots happy. That will show them.

 

[pilotyip]

Profits

Better tell that to the Southwest pilots who make very respectable wages, have high job satisfaction, and work for one of the most successul companies in aviation. Go ahead YIP, head on over to the majors board and give it a shot. I'm sure they're dying to hear from you.

It is all about profits, SWA has them that makes it a nice place to work. If an airline does not have profits they can not be like SWA. An airline has to raises fares or cut costs to remain profitable, all I have posted is only time well how a shortage of pilots will effect pilot's wages. I have predicted that the market driven by the consumer's spending will dictate airline wages.

 

[livin'thesim]

It is about the pilot supply. If there were less pilots, they would have to pay us more.

During this most recent boom, many regionals were forced to lower their upgrade minimums. Or were they? Couldn't they have just paid more for higher experience pilots? Of course, but we all know what happened.

If 4000 hours used to be required, why is 2000 suddenly okay?

The market finds its own level. The reason pilots are paid what they are is because there are pilots who accept a job for that rate of pay.

This is not difficult.

Regardless of what one THINKS they should make, if there is someone willing to work for less, they may not get the job at their expected higher rate.

 

[bizjet800]

Let's say there is a shortage, does anyone have a problem with that?

 

[Flyby1206]

Regional carriers grew over the past decade because they received scope exceptions from mainline carriers and could operate a mainline route with much lower operating costs.

IF there was a lack of applicants at the regional level it wouldnt be financially beneficial to raise pay to attract pilots. Raising pay would in turn make many regional routes unprofitable, and not logical (reducing the need for pilots).

RATHER, the regional carriers will hire as many pilots at low wages as possible as long as mainline unions trade scope concessions for pay raises. If scope stays the same, then regionals will hire for attrition, and when there are no applicants they will shrink the carrier to maintain a constant level of operating cost.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

If I were an idiot then it should be pretty simple to explain to all of us how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline (i.e. lowest paying, worst QOL) level represents a true lack of pilots throughout the industry.

We're waiting.

Read the post immediately prior to your last one. I'm not talking about a shortage of pilots industry-wide. I'm talking about a shortage of pilots in the training pipeline, and thus a shortage at the regional level. I don't give a crap if there is a shortage at the majors (There won't be because there are plenty of starry eyed captains at the regionals dying to get there.) I'm not planning to go to a major. I just don't want to be at the regional that can't staff its airline, because eventually that airline is going to lose business.

As someone else said, there will be a huge sucking sound when the majors start hiring again. The regionals will not be able to hire enough once the furloughed pilots are rehired, and all of the instructors are hired away from the flight schools. 1.5 years after the hiring begins, the regionals are going to be hurting badly.

I'm not talking about the whole industry.
I'm not talking about the whole industry.

(I had said that a few times already, so hopefully your reading comprehension is a little better this time around.)

 

[imacdog]

ASA, I'm just not sure how you don't understand that once hiring picks up, so will the training pipeline. It really isn't that difficult of a concept.

 

[imacdog]

It is all about profits, SWA has them that makes it a nice place to work. If an airline does not have profits they can not be like SWA. An airline has to raises fares or cut costs to remain profitable, all I have posted is only time well how a shortage of pilots will effect pilot's wages. I have predicted that the market driven by the consumer's spending will dictate airline wages.

So what you're saying is if a company is properly run, then paying pilots what they truly deserve won't be a problem. All you do is argue that the public won't pay more for higher paid pilots, yet they are quite happy to fly on Southwest. Go figure.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

ASA, I'm just not sure how you don't understand that once hiring picks up, so will the training pipeline. It really isn't that difficult of a concept.

Sure...and with the new regs on the way, the pipeline goes from 1-2 years, to 2-3 years. But, the pipeline ALWAYS lags, and the shortage will be worse this time than it was in 2007 due to the magnitude of the lack of people in training.

Whatever. It doesn't really matter what you people think, or what any of us think for that matter. It is just going to suck. Enjoy the conversation, I'm out.

 

[pilotyip]

Not ture

So what you're saying is if a company is properly run, then paying pilots what they truly deserve won't be a problem. All you do is argue that the public won't pay more for higher paid pilots, yet they are quite happy to fly on Southwest. Go figure.

SWA is not the low cost provider, planning 2-3 weels in advance you can beat SWA on most routes. Last spring under pressure to produce a profit they rasied all advance fares by around double, they saw such a drop off in advance bookings that the prices had to come back down in a month to the old levels. People with spare time, school teachers in the summer, retired people, etc book in advance based almost solely on price alone. If SWA is not low they don't get that marginal flyer. If the marginal flyer does not fly that empty seat on Tuesday produces no revenue.

 

[imacdog]

SWA is not the low cost provider, planning 2-3 weels in advance you can beat SWA on most routes. Last spring under pressure to produce a profit they rasied all advance fares by around double, they saw such a drop off in advance bookings that the prices had to come back down in a month to the old levels. People with spare time, school teachers in the summer, retired people, etc book in advance based almost solely on price alone. If SWA is not low they don't get that marginal flyer. If the marginal flyer does not fly that empty seat on Tuesday produces no revenue.

So what? SWA makes money and pays their pilots well. How can this happen in the world of YIP (aka fantasy land)?

 

[imacdog]

Whatever. It doesn't really matter what you people think, or what any of us think for that matter. It is just going to suck. Enjoy the conversation, I'm out.

Interesting argument. "I think you guys are wrong, therefore I'm right and am leaving the conversation". I never thought of using that one, thanks though.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

Interesting argument. "I think you guys are wrong, therefore I'm right and am leaving the conversation". I never thought of using that one, thanks though.

At some point, you have to quit banging your head against the wall. There is no way to get through to you, other than for you to see what happens when the majors hire again. So, we will see who is correct then. Why do you want to keep beating the horse? Isn't it dead enough?

 

[imacdog]

I wouldn't consider bringing facts, figures, and scenarios into the discussion as beating a dead horse. More like good debate. The silly part would be not bringing any argument at all to a particular side other than saying the sky will be falling soon, then refusing to engage in the conversation and bowing out. Sound familiar?

 

[Metro752]

The LCCs are going to consolidate some more, and squeeze the life out of their smaller competitors that refuse to assimilate.

Either that or big tree fall hard.

 

[Flightdawg]

Airlines: Some Costs They Can't - And Shouldn't - Cut

Note the cost differences between airlines: http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/10/30/200059-125693844083879-Robert-Herbst.png

 

[pilotyip]

Back to square one

So what? SWA makes money and pays their pilots well. How can this happen in the world of YIP (aka fantasy land)?

As stated many posts ago, SWA pays its pilots well because it is profitable, they have unique business model that gives them one of the lowest CSM in the business. Although because of wages, as shown above, that CSM is under tremendous pressure and as stated above they are no longer the low cost carrier because of their higher labor costs. Fed Ex and UPS pay there pilot well because they are profitable. Airlines that are not profitable can not afford to pay as well. There is no fantasy there. Now if you have the answers to make manage an airline and make it profitable in order to pay the pilots more then it is your duty to leave the cockpit and come into management and make the world better for all your brother pilots. But we wouldn't like to deal with that fantasy would we. Talking of going back to square one, only time will tell how the new 1500 mins will effect pay and the airline industry. BTW you can get a free subscription to Air Transport World, ATW and get some great reading on how airlines are managed.

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Yip,

You did not reply to my post #34 in this thread. Or is your only response that pilot's should never expect a raise or I should go into mgmt.

 

[pilotyip]

Thought I did?

Yip,

Do you have a reading comprehension problem? Almost EVERYTHING in our lives goes up. That is a fact of life. It is not screwing the consumer, it is just the cost of doing business. ..... last 10 years was a once in a lifetime reset of our compensation structure and it is time to rebuild.

Thought I did, prices go up, and not everyone's wages go up, talk to the auto workers who wages have gone down, unless you are a gov't employee. So what is your solution, raise fares? Everything has an unintended consequence. Now I do not know your seniority or airline or anything about you. But if flying is reduced because people elect to use alternate means of transportation, and it only takes a small percentage to impact airline empty seats on Tuesday and Saturday. Now less flights, means less pilots, means loosing your Captain's seat. As I posted before in this thread only time will tell how the new hires mins will affect the regional business model. BTW I don't think I have comprehension problem, but I know I cannot speel, 4th grade teacher told me so.

 

[sayrejm]

it is interesting to read a lot of the comments below the article and see what the general public has to say on these issues.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

I wouldn't consider bringing facts, figures, and scenarios into the discussion as beating a dead horse. More like good debate. The silly part would be not bringing any argument at all to a particular side other than saying the sky will be falling soon, then refusing to engage in the conversation and bowing out. Sound familiar?

I gave up on trying to make reasoned arguments to idiots a long time ago.

 

[pilotyip]

Reality check

I gave up on trying to make reasoned arguments to idiots a long time ago.

That is the sin of using reality in arguments on Flightinfo, many don't like the answers. However they have no reasoned rebutal, other than attacking the poster who brought up the reality. The old message if you like the message kill the messenger.

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

No your message never changes. Pilots should never expect pay increases. We should be content to paid in late 80s pay rates while everything else has gone up. Sometimes I think you are paid by the ATA to come on here and lower the expectations of the younger, more impressionable pilots on here.

That is the sin of using reality in arguments on Flightinfo, many don't like the answers. However they have no reasoned rebutal, other than attacking the poster who brought up the reality. The old message if you like the message kill the messenger.

 

[pilotyip]

Economic Reality

No your message never changes. Pilots should never expect pay increases. We should be content to paid in late 80s pay rates while everything else has gone up. Sometimes I think you are paid by the ATA to come on here and lower the expectations of the younger, more impressionable pilots on here.

Where have I said you should accept lower your wages? I wish you were paid like a 20yr FedEx Captain. But the market and individual self-interest will dictate what wages should be. You complain, but offer no solutions. What are your options? Go on strike, shut the place down show them who is boss, there is a down side to that. Mug new pilot in the parking lot who accept entry level wages? there is a down side to that also. It is basic economics, if you raise the price of commodity, less people will purchase that commodity. With less people purchasing there is not as much demand for that commodity, therefore there will be fewer, but better paid pilots. That is what we had under Regulation. Pressure on entry-level employers will increase with the new hiring minimums, as it becomes no longer possible to redefine competitive hiring minimums any lower. It is small start, but all changes start as small steps. BTW “Who wants to be first to sacrifice his job for the benefit of someone else?”

 

[imacdog]

That is the sin of using reality in arguments on Flightinfo, many don't like the answers. However they have no reasoned rebutal, other than attacking the poster who brought up the reality. The old message if you like the message kill the messenger.

I don't believe I ever attacked the messenger, YIP, and neither did others who have presented opposing views. The problem with freight managers on FI is they are long past the point of being useful.

BTW YIP, what was the reality when you fired all of your DA-20 pilots a little while back while allowing junior DC-9 pilots to keep their jobs?

 

[pilotyip]

me?

BTW YIP, what was the reality when you fired all of your DA-20 pilots a little while back while allowing junior DC-9 pilots to keep their jobs?

I was not even thinking of you when I made that post. BTW That is quite a statement since I was one of DA-20 pilots fired. Only to find out that 2 months it was decided that not flying the DA-20's was not such a good idea, something that I had said all along. But that is reality in this business you have to get used to it.

 

[imacdog]

Yep, that's the reality. Kind of a stark contrast to this pilot shortage bullcrap you push every now and then, isn't it?