Revised DAL Biz Plan?

[Superpilot92]

The day DC-9s take over ANYTHING from RJs, I will glady buy you the most expensive steak dinner you can find, General!

-That is one bet you will never win except perhaps in your freak-ass dreams.....

Although i dont agree with GL much he is probably right in this case.

 

[Jmoney]

Really?----

If DAL replaces a new 70 or 90 seat plane with one that carries just about the same number of people and burns MORE FUEL THAN A FREAKING 757, (not to mention all the mx they dump into those old buckets) they would deserve the pounding the market would give them!

You people have got to be high!!!! It would be absolutely insane to consider doing exactly the same job with something that burns 3 or 4 times as much fuel to do it!!!!

-Did you buy some bad stuff from ATLcrashpad?

-Damn....

 

[MJ42]

Really?----

If DAL replaces a new 70 or 90 seat plane with one that carries just about the same number of people and burns MORE FUEL THAN A FREAKING 757, (not to mention all the mx they dump into those old buckets) they would deserve the pounding the market would give them!

You people have got to be high!!!! It would be absolutely insane to consider doing exactly the same job with something that burns 3 or 4 times as much fuel to do it!!!!

-Did you buy some bad stuff from ATLcrashpad?

-Damn....

Who flies 90 seat planes for DAL? As far as RJ's go 76 is the max. The 50 seaters will go first.

Also, do some research on how many pax a DC-9-30, -40 and -50 hold...(I'll give you a start, -50=124 pax). While you're at it, look up the burn PPH of a DC-9 compared to a 757. I'll be interested in your findings.

P.S. A few 3rd grade math problems for you: 124-50=??? 124-76=???

 

[~~~^~~~]

So you can't back up your statement. Another Shocker! Let's see, between Airtran and Jetblue, I am willing to bet that DAL's "O and D" traffic has tailspinned compared to NWA's.

After you ran away from your challenge on SLI history, you come back with more taunts? Like I wrote, you set the standard - I'll meet you fact for fact and as others on the board have observed, if I'm wrong - I'll admit it.

Just debate Jamie Baker and Mark Streeter of JP Morgan. My opinion of NWA is actually more favorable than most of the Experts.

Southwest, Alaska, Delta, and AirTran remain at the top of the list as those airlines having the least amount of Chapter 11 risk.

But after that, we had some moving around.

With the announcement of its debt offering, JetBlue moved up into fifth spot, behind AirTran, while Continental got knocked down to sixth place.

American moved up to seventh, from its former ninth place position, based on capacity cuts announced, while United Airlines moved up to eighth place from last place. Northwest dropped from sixth to next to last, and US Airways dropped from eighth to number ten -- last on the list.

 

[nwaredtail]

After you ran away from your challenge on SLI history, you come back with more taunts?

Just debate Jamie Baker and Mark Streeter of JP Morgan. My opinion of NWA is actually more favorable than most of the Experts.

Ummm, no. I want you to produce the data that you "quoted" that said NWA's O & D trafffic is trending down. That should be simple for you.

I agree, NWA is probably the least likely to go BK.

Waiting for your numbers.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Waiting for yours. I posted mine months ago. Use the search feature.

Just as US Air keeps your airline from being on the bottom of the list, do you appreciate the service Tanker Clown provides you?

 

[~~~^~~~]

While you're at it, look up the burn PPH of a DC-9 compared to a 757. I'll be interested in your findings.

Actually, the DC9-50 only burns about 100 gallons less an hour than a 757 at Delta. The 757 goes further, with nearly half again more passengers, off a shorter runway. When it comes to numbers games, it is hard to beat a 757. NWA's 757-300's are the most efficient aircraft in the fleet on a CASM basis.

2007 NWA & Delta operating statistics

Fuel Burn DC9 30 / 40 / 50 in Gallons per Hour:
762/797/867

Fuel Burn 757 NWA / DAL / NWA757-300
994/976/1177

Fuel Burn CRJ 700 Comair
586

CASM
DC9-30: 11.1
757 DAL: 5.4
757 NWA: 6.0
757-300 NWA: 4.2
CRJ900 (SkyWest 76 seater): 7.3

 

[Superpilot92]

After you ran away from your challenge on SLI history, you come back with more taunts? Like I wrote, you set the standard - I'll meet you fact for fact and as others on the board have observed, if I'm wrong - I'll admit it.

Just debate Jamie Baker and Mark Streeter of JP Morgan. My opinion of NWA is actually more favorable than most of the Experts.

That is BS and you know it. If NWA was in such bad shape then why did DAL "choose" to merge with NWA? Your CEO has even said that both companies were best positioned in the industry. That list even put NWA at more of a risk than UAL of going TU , come on we all know thats bs. your a numbers guys you should know better than that.

 

[FmrFreightDog]

The day DC-9s take over ANYTHING from RJs, I will glady buy you the most expensive steak dinner you can find, General!

-That is one bet you will never win except perhaps in your freak-ass dreams.....

Hmm, let's see... as of 6/6 DC-9s take over RJ routes on DTW-XNA at NWA. Where do I collect that steak dinner?

 

[Superpilot92]

Actually, the DC9-50 only burns about 100 gallons less an hour than a 757 at Delta. The 757 goes further, with nearly half again more passengers, off a shorter runway. When it comes to numbers games, it is hard to beat a 757. NWA's 757-300's are the most efficient aircraft in the fleet on a CASM basis.

2007 NWA & Delta operating statistics

Fuel Burn DC9 30 / 40 / 50 in Gallons per Hour:
762/797/867

Fuel Burn 757 NWA / DAL / NWA757-300
994/976/1177

Fuel Burn CRJ 700 Comair
586

CASM
DC9-30: 11.1
757 DAL: 5.4
757 NWA: 6.0
757-300 NWA: 4.2
CRJ900 (SkyWest 76 seater): 7.3

The 757 and the dc9 have completely different missions and thats a bad comparison. When we start running the 757 on routes like dtw-lan, or mem-lit then start comparing that. Also those CASM numbers were based on 1000 mile routes if i am not mistaken and the dc9 doesnt really do long routes. It is typically used for short hauls to smaller airports. There are alot of factors that are being left out of the DC9 numbers. DAL mgmt likes the 9 for its abilities on those type of missions and has said it a number of times. They are being reduced and we will only have about 50ish of them left by the end of the year and i would be willing to bet those stick around a little while as a temporary filler. There are rumors floating around that Airtranny is looking for a buyer for their DC9-717's maybe we can pick those up.

 

[DTW320]

After you ran away from your challenge on SLI history, you come back with more taunts? Like I wrote, you set the standard - I'll meet you fact for fact and as others on the board have observed, if I'm wrong - I'll admit it.

Just debate Jamie Baker and Mark Streeter of JP Morgan. My opinion of NWA is actually more favorable than most of the Experts.

Hey Fins....do you mean the same JP Morgan guys who later issued this update?

"Due to the timing of the Midwest Airlines transaction, $200 million of cash
held in escrow will leave the restricted cash category, improving liquidity
and unrestricted cash by that amount. Note that our placement of NWA at
the weak end of our chapter 11 risk rankings continues to generate the most
debate amongst the authors of this report and from our clients. NWA's
balance sheet and liquidity are currently high but liquidity options are limited
under a scenario (not our base case) where Delta walks away from the merger
table or the government blocks a deal later this year. Other airlines may
be able to raise capital more quickly, thereby buying more time. The NWA
opinion offered here is certainly a non-consensus view (as is our view on
JBLU at the other extreme). Nevertheless, keep in mind that it is only a view
and as we wrote earlier in this report, none of these liquidity projections
are likely to match reality as capital raising and industry restructuring
events occur."

Just wondering.....

 

[Superpilot92]

Hmm, let's see... as of 6/6 DC-9s take over RJ routes on DTW-XNA at NWA. Where do I collect that steak dinner?

The 9 is also back on MEM-IAH and IAH-MEM. instead of all crjs its now 2 dc9s and 1 crj.:beer:

 

[Superpilot92]

Hey Fins....do you mean the same JP Morgan guys who later issued this update?


Just wondering.....

Great find i hadnt seen that. I am glad that we weren't the only ones who caught the bs in the original article. :nuts:

 

[nwaredtail]

~~~^~~~;1599870]Waiting for yours. I posted mine months ago. Use the search feature.

Well, there you have it. You spew "trends", "Financial results" but when asked specifics, you try to deflect and spin. Thats OK, most know that you, General Lee, PuffScab are full of crap, so I'll drop it.

Credibility, I expect thats what a few NWA pilots have had trouble adjusting to when working with the DAL folks.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Frankly it does not matter how either of us have preformed in the past. We need to look at how we will perform in the future. Frankly that is the only thing that will make our jobs secure and QOL increase.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Hey Fins....do you mean the same JP Morgan guys who later issued this update?

Just wondering.....

Why, yes. Those are the same analysts.

NWA's balance sheet and liquidity are currently high but liquidity options are limited under a scenario (not our base case) where Delta walks away from the merger table or the government blocks a deal later this year.

...and here's to hope.

NWA does not bring the cash to the table to replace their fleet. If this merger happens a bunch of NWA pilots are going to be displacing Delta pilots off of Delta jets.

Since the NWA guys are all about one contract and one list - why don't we name the new airline - United?

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I am sure that they will displace us and that is their right with the seniority that they will gain in the SLI. It is what it is. I hope for all of our sakes that the SLI is fair from top to bottom. We all have a different point of view on what fair is.
If oil stays where it is, there will be a lot of seat changes coming our way. It is a big IF. I looks as it is making its slow retreat, but you never know with those hedge fund investors.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Superpilot:

I responded to a NWA pilot who specifically asked about DC9 v/s 757 numbers and I commented on how that wasn't a fair comparison, that a 757 can't be beat and that NWA's 757-300 was THE BEST....

you blast away....

I commented that I thought JP Morgan's analysts were too harsh on NWA

you blast away....

What gives?

BTW - Back when Delta ordered their 757's their PR said it was intended to be a 727 AND a DC-9 replacement. Delta was the DC9's launch customer.

 

[~~~^~~~]

I am sure that they will displace us and that is their right with the seniority that they will gain in the SLI. It is what it is. I hope for all of our sakes that the SLI is fair from top to bottom. We all have a different point of view on what fair is.

Displacing Delta pilots when DC9's are parked and back filled with Compass and Pinnacle is fair? Why isn't status quo fair? Is it "unfair" that you hold what you have now?

We do not know the fleet plan going forward. Guess there is no point getting too excited before we learn whether the DC9's will be replaced with 737-700's.

In the past all the backfill has been with RJ's and the RJ operators have the cash to fund new jets. Maybe this time will be different. Depends on whether those junior Captains are awake now and let their MEC know their thoughts on Section 1.

ACL >> Did you read Anderson's update? He basically said the revisions to Delta's business plan were already announced, that we were first in announcing capacity reductions. It appears to me the reports from the Shareholder's meeting were taken out of context by the press.

As always, it remains a dynamic situation.

Steenland's comments about DAL & NWA being smaller are probably true. Steenland might say what we do not want to hear, but his outspoken nature might reflect his honesty about the effect of the merger.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Fin;
You also need to see what our President stated. He basically said that we are open to capacity cuts in the domestic market as well. What surprised me was that he stated that they would be less than previously announced. I was guessing about another 7-8%. If what he states holds true we are looking at 4%. Not much given it is during a winter schedule.
Also of note he stated Domestic and not system. That means that we may announce more international growth.

On the SLI issue. It is quite complicated. I think both sides positions have shown that. We want what we want. I thought that a ratio was fair even before this thing started to heat up. (About two years ago). Now the NWA pilot group wants credit for retirements. It really depends on where our starting point is in arbitration. I do not want to see it come to that, but you never know.
Of note is that there seems to be progress being made on this The rock throwing has disappeared. That gives me true hope that this thing may get done sooner than later. Hopefully with both sides being mildly upset. That would indicate that it was done correctly.

 

[MJ42]

Superpilot:

I responded to a NWA pilot who specifically asked about DC9 v/s 757 numbers and I commented on how that wasn't a fair comparison, that a 757 can't be beat and that NWA's 757-300 was THE BEST....Unfortunately I was not too clear in my post but superpilot read my mind and clarified my intended meaning.



BTW - Back when Delta ordered their 757's their PR said it was intended to be a 727 AND a DC-9 replacement. Delta was the DC9's launch customer.

Key words..."back when Delta". That was then, oh how times have changed.

 

[DTW320]

Why, yes. Those are the same analysts.
...and here's to hope.

NWA does not bring the cash to the table to replace their fleet. If this merger happens a bunch of NWA pilots are going to be displacing Delta pilots off of Delta jets.

Since the NWA guys are all about one contract and one list - why don't we name the new airline - United?

Replace our fleet? We have the youngest international fleet of any North American airline and the youngest trans-atlantic fleet of any North American OR European airline. Our average fleet age, even with DC9's included is about 4 years older than DAL's.

Does DAL have the cash to replace it's aging 767 fleet?

As for the JP Morgan thing, perhaps in the future you could refrain from using analysts who admit that their numbers are not "based in reality".

 

[Superpilot92]

Superpilot:

I responded to a NWA pilot who specifically asked about DC9 v/s 757 numbers and I commented on how that wasn't a fair comparison, that a 757 can't be beat and that NWA's 757-300 was THE BEST....

you blast away....

I commented that I thought JP Morgan's analysts were too harsh on NWA

you blast away....

What gives?

BTW - Back when Delta ordered their 757's their PR said it was intended to be a 727 AND a DC-9 replacement. Delta was the DC9's launch customer.

Dont be so sensitive Fins , i wasn't "blasting away" i mearly commented that the dc9 and the 757 have completely different missions and that CASM numbers were based on route structures we at NWA dont use the 9 for. I also commented on the JPmorgan comments because you used it as a smear on NWA, even though you knew it wasn't accurate. By no means was it meant to be a "blast away" at you.

 

[~~~^~~~]

DTW:

OK, you knew I meant the DC9's, didn't you?

DAL is sinking a Billion in their 767's seats, winglets and inflight entertainment. The 767's are some of the youngest aircraft in the fleet. The old 767's, the -200's are already gone. You'll have to visit our museum in Atlanta to find a -200.

The 767-400's are younger than our 777's (I think).

Delta has something like 200 rolling options for 737's. I hope the 737-700 is the DC9 replacement. The problem with the 737 in the past has been that it is expensive. Maybe with airlines deferring orders Boeing might work with us to get some more 737's on the property.

By the way - It stinks that nothing was done to preserve Pan Am's history. Delta has a nice little museum in Atlanta (open to anyone who is bored on an ATL overnight). But more room is devoted to "ASA's merger with Delta" than Pan Am's. Are there any plans to capture any of NWA's history? I'm a airplane museum nut and would gladly contribute to keeping NWA's stuff on display somewhere.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Super92:

True - your DC9's have an average stage length around 450 miles, the 757 around 1,200 miles. Today the DC9 is operated like a CRJ200.

It will be interesting to see if the combined fleet is utilized differently. I've been told the MD90 is more efficient than a 737 over short stage lengths.

 

[dtfl]

Replace our fleet? We have the youngest international fleet of any North American airline and the youngest trans-atlantic fleet of any North American OR European airline. Our average fleet age, even with DC9's included is about 4 years older than DAL's.

Does DAL have the cash to replace it's aging 767 fleet?

As for the JP Morgan thing, perhaps in the future you could refrain from using analysts who admit that their numbers are not "based in reality".

Without the 9s you have a young fleet. With them - there is a 5 yr spread.

From Forbes - as of yesterday 6/3/08---

The oldest fleet of America's major airlines belongs to Northwest Airlines (nyse: NWA - news - people ). Northwest still operates a large fleet of McDonnell Douglas DC9s. At the end of 2007, Northwest flew 94 DC9s at an average age of 36 years. Without them, Northwest's fleet would only average about 11 years old.

Northwest Airlines

Average Age: 17.5 years
Size of fleet: 356 planes
NYSE: NWA
The oldest fleet of America's major airlines belongs to Northwest. Northwest still operates a large fleet of McDonnell Douglas DC9s; at the end of 2007, Northwest flew 94 DC9s at an average age of 36 years. Without them, Northwest's fleet would only average about 11 years old.
​

Delta Air Lines

Average Age: 12.4 years
Size of fleet: 578 planes
NYSE: DAL
Delta is getting married to Northwest airlines--forming the May-December romance of the airline industry--and will bring as its dowry a fleet mostly of Boeings and Bombardiers. Like Northwest, however, the oldest part of Delta's fleet are McDonnell-Douglases. At the end of the year, Delta had 117 MD-88s still operating at an average age of 17.5.
​

 

[DTW320]

Without the 9s you have a young fleet. With them - there is a 5 yr spread.

From Forbes - as of yesterday 6/3/08---

The oldest fleet of America's major airlines belongs to Northwest Airlines (nyse: NWA - news - people ). Northwest still operates a large fleet of McDonnell Douglas DC9s. At the end of 2007, Northwest flew 94 DC9s at an average age of 36 years. Without them, Northwest's fleet would only average about 11 years old.

Northwest Airlines

Average Age: 17.5 years
Size of fleet: 356 planes
NYSE: NWA
The oldest fleet of America's major airlines belongs to Northwest. Northwest still operates a large fleet of McDonnell Douglas DC9s; at the end of 2007, Northwest flew 94 DC9s at an average age of 36 years. Without them, Northwest's fleet would only average about 11 years old.
​

Delta Air Lines

Average Age: 12.4 years
Size of fleet: 578 planes
NYSE: DAL
Delta is getting married to Northwest airlines--forming the May-December romance of the airline industry--and will bring as its dowry a fleet mostly of Boeings and Bombardiers. Like Northwest, however, the oldest part of Delta's fleet are McDonnell-Douglases. At the end of the year, Delta had 117 MD-88s still operating at an average age of 17.5.
​

Sorry, you're wrong. Your 12.4 year number includes your RJ fleet. It's all available in 2007's 10k forms for both airlines and DAL's breaks out the numbers with and without your RJ's. Apples to Oranges.I've posted it all before. You can do a search for it.

Fins:

There is already a NWA museum near the airport in MSP. It's over near the mall of america.

 

[Superpilot92]

Super92:

True - your DC9's have an average stage length around 450 miles, the 757 around 1,200 miles. Today the DC9 is operated like a CRJ200.

It will be interesting to see if the combined fleet is utilized differently. I've been told the MD90 is more efficient than a 737 over short stage lengths.

Exactly!! thats where hopefully the DAL mgmt team will redeploy the remaining dc9s where they are best utilized. The dc9 is a great people mover on short routes and thats where the numbers start getting fuzzy because how CASM is established. The 9s wont be around forever but they will have a role in the new DAL at least as a filler till either 737s come or a different replacement is found. We are going to see the big changes in the utilization rates and staffing levels with the NWA fleet once its brought up to DAL staffing levels. NWA runs a tight ship as far as staffing goes. Its going to be very interesting to see the merged companies plans on redeploying aircraft and bases.

 

[General Lee]

Replace our fleet? We have the youngest international fleet of any North American airline and the youngest trans-atlantic fleet of any North American OR European airline. Our average fleet age, even with DC9's included is about 4 years older than DAL's.

Does DAL have the cash to replace it's aging 767 fleet?

As for the JP Morgan thing, perhaps in the future you could refrain from using analysts who admit that their numbers are not "based in reality".

We got rid of our "old" 767s---the 767-200s went to ABX. Our "newer" 767s are getting winglets on them and crew quarters for longer flights. And, when your 742s go away, I have heard some of the 767-300ERs could get cargo doors and go to ANC. You will be seeing those 767s for a LONG time to come, a lot longer than those DC9s.

And I LOVE your comment about NWA having the "youngest" transatlantic fleet for ANY airline. I think Virgin, Air France, KLM, and Lufthansa would disagree, but you do know it all.........(also Emirates does fly only very very new 777s across the Atlantic from Dubai, but that doesn't count...) Across the Atlantic, you are a small player overall. You got to a total of 6 cities across the pond, including Mumbai (not in Europe). I wouldn't be bragging about Europe. (we don't brag about Asia either)


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Replace our fleet? We have the youngest international fleet of any North American airline and the youngest trans-atlantic fleet of any North American OR European airline. Our average fleet age, even with DC9's included is about 4 years older than DAL's.

Does DAL have the cash to replace it's aging 767 fleet?

As for the JP Morgan thing, perhaps in the future you could refrain from using analysts who admit that their numbers are not "based in reality".

We got rid of our "old" 767s---the 767-200s went to ABX. Our "newer" 767s are getting winglets on them and crew quarters for longer flights. And, when your 742s go away, I have heard some of the 767-300ERs could get cargo doors and go to ANC. You will be seeing those 767s for a LONG time to come, a lot longer than those DC9s.

And I LOVE your comment about NWA having the "youngest" transatlantic fleet for ANY airline. I think Virgin, Air France, KLM, and Lufthansa would disagree, but you do know it all.........(also Emirates does fly only very very new 777s across the Atlantic from Dubai, but that doesn't count...) Across the Atlantic, you are a small player overall. You go to a total of 6 cities across the pond, including Mumbai (not in Europe). I wouldn't be bragging about Europe. (we don't brag about Asia either)


Bye Bye--General Lee