AirTran tacks on add'l $140M to cash

[jehtplane]

Furloughs at all airlines (except Southwest) will be necessary for them to survive this downturn. .

quote]



That is way extreme, not every airline is going to have to furlough pilots, a few might but certainly not every airline, go take a happy pill.

 

[Andy]

That is way extreme, not every airline is going to have to furlough pilots, a few might but certainly not every airline, go take a happy pill.

Not every single airline, but it will be few and far between as far as those not furloughing. When aircraft get parked and there are no retirements, the end result is furloughs. Difficult concept to grasp, eh?

 

[lowecur]

Lowecur, Section 4.03(c) outlines the actual conversion rate of the bond - for every $1000, 260.4167 shares plus the amount of shares from exhibit B in the Supplemental Indenture.
For example, the chart shows for a bond redemption in the 30 April 2008 period, if the closing price of the stock over the last 30 trading days was $4.00/share, the additional shares per $1000 would be 52.0833 shares. In other words, if the average stock price was $4/sh over the last 30 trading days, a bondholder could convert his $1000 bond for 260.4167 + 52.0833 = 312.5 shares. ($3.20/sh)
If the stock price averaged $10/share over the same lookback period, the bondholder could convert for 260.4167 + 14.4510 = 274.8677 shares. ($3.64/sh)

Section 4.06 merely adjusts the conversion rate in case the company decides to issue additional stock. Pretty standard way to protect the convertible bondholder from further dilution.

Section 4.11 allows the company to further increase the conversion rate. The company would want to do this if they did not want to pay the accrued interest on the bonds.

I was particularly impressed with the clause that forces AAI to escrow the first 3 years' interest on the bonds. That money's untouchable by AAI and it represents nearly 20% of the net proceeds of the bond offering. This is particularly advantageous for the bondholder, because even if AAI declared bankruptcy a week later, the bonds would still get the semiannual interest payments while continuing to maintain a senior position among unsecured debt.

I tried to make the above in as plain english as possible, but the subject isn't easily translated from business gobblygook.

To give you a comparison of another airline's convertible bond offering, I pulled up a Continental filing from early 2002. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/319687/000095012902000247/0000950129-02-000247.txt
Note that the conversion price is $40/share. The high for the year was $35.25/sh. The only adjustment to the conversion rate is the same as outlined in Section 4.06 of AAI's convertible offering.

Yes, this is definitely death spiral financing. It doesn't kill the company, just the stock price. This is not a company that you want to buy stock in.

Thanks for your research.

I'm still not going along with "classic death spiral," just because the terms outline a floor on the conversion rate between $3.20-$4.00. That's just a difference of opinion and symantics. Could the stock get below that for other reasons? Sure, with future bad economic news, shorts have every reason in this business to be bullish.

AAI's future is tied to what form industry capitulation takes and it's inherent timing. Things could be expedited if M&A activity is approved by the end of the year. Alaska is sitting on lots of cash, and at some point the stock valuation at AAI may look enticing for M&A. It pays for them to be patient.

In any case, AAI is in much better shape than FRNT and for that matter possibly UAL (if mgt continues to stand pat w/o major capacity cuts). It's going to be an interesting ride with the industry as surviving companies and their employees will be the major benefactors of a new paradigm.

imp: ​

 

[PCL_128]

I warned of an economic slowdown more than 6 months ago.

I believe you predicted an actual recession, which was proven yesterday to be false with continued economic growth of 0.6% in the last quarter. I think it's entirely possible that we won't reach a full-blown recession at all. The economy might hover around flat for the next few quarters and then start a steady gain.

Your company is making the right moves in this environment; they're just not the moves that you'd like them to make.

And where do you get that from? I do like the moves they're making. These are smart moves, which is why I previously said that I believe Fornaro is a smart CEO who will do a good job of leading us through the economic slow-down. It might suck that I won't upgrade for a long time, but that's life.

Furloughs at all airlines (except Southwest) will be necessary for them to survive this downturn.

I predict no involuntary furloughs whatsoever at AirTran.

Your Pollyanish analysis of the current financial environment does not make me an extreme pessimist. It merely tells me that you are blissfully ignorant of what's lurking below the surface in the credit markets.

Your analysis is far more extreme than just about every respected economist in the country. I'll listen to the professionals before the arm-chair economist that flies airplanes for a living.

 

[Lear70]

I believe you predicted an actual recession, which was proven yesterday to be false with continued economic growth of 0.6% in the last quarter. I think it's entirely possible that we won't reach a full-blown recession at all. The economy might hover around flat for the next few quarters and then start a steady gain.

I'm pretty certain that 0.6% "growth" excluded the financial markets, specifically the housing market and credit market losses.

When you factor those in (which it's highly frivolous to exclude), the economy was negative for the quarter. That would be like saying AAI posted a profit for the quarter then, in small print, saying "excluding fuel costs".

Figures lie and liars figure. Funny how our Federal Government does the same thing that they criticize big business for... oh wait, it's Bush. Nevermind...

And where do you get that from? I do like the moves they're making. These are smart moves, which is why I previously said that I believe Fornaro is a smart CEO who will do a good job of leading us through the economic slow-down. It might suck that I won't upgrade for a long time, but that's life.

I predict no involuntary furloughs whatsoever at AirTran.

Agreed. I think they're going to come asking for VOLUNTARY LOA's (so they don't have to pay unemployment benefits) with continued medical coverage payments (we pay the lion's share of the premiums anyway), around September.

My prediction is quite a few people will take them; there's a lot of pilots at airTran with side businesses or Guard/Reserve duty options.

Your analysis is far more extreme than just about every respected economist in the country. I'll listen to the professionals before the arm-chair economist that flies airplanes for a living.

Depends on which economist you're talking to. Most of the respected ones are saying the bottom isn't here yet, that we'll likely hit bottom about this time NEXT year. Certainly true for the housing and credit markets, foreclosures and defaults are up again last quarter and will likely accelerate unless there's bipartisan support for that bill that forces government-subsidized fixed-rate refinance for ALL homeowners with an ARM which, in an election year...? Good luck.

A depression? Probably not. A recession? Absolutely.

 

[whoknows]

Yeah lets get raises for about 4-6 months and then out of business=SMART !! Then where do you go and have 15 days off, and insurance for your family? What airline is hiring? With this great economy it is a great time to lose your job!

Be blessed that you have a job !!=Never Happy..you would not be happy with a raise....

If AirTran is going to go out of business in 4-6 months it will have nothing to do with what the pilots make. I would suggest that if you really think AirTran is in such dire straights you try and act like management and suck as much money out of the company and into your on pockets ASAP.

Just wondering if spewing this crap is the only way you are using your mouth to make management happy.

 

[PCL_128]

I'm pretty certain that 0.6% "growth" excluded the financial markets, specifically the housing market and credit market losses.

When you factor those in (which it's highly frivolous to exclude), the economy was negative for the quarter. That would be like saying AAI posted a profit for the quarter then, in small print, saying "excluding fuel costs".

The definition of "recession" is set and isn't open to interpretation: two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We haven't even seen a single quarter of negative GDP growth yet.

Agreed. I think they're going to come asking for VOLUNTARY LOA's (so they don't have to pay unemployment benefits) with continued medical coverage payments (we pay the lion's share of the premiums anyway), around September.

My prediction is quite a few people will take them; there's a lot of pilots at airTran with side businesses or Guard/Reserve duty options.

I'd love to take one, especially since the rumor is that the stand-up lines are going to disappear or nearly so. Give me a voluntary LOA with health benefits and travel benefits and I'll jump on it in a split second.

 

[Andy]

I believe you predicted an actual recession, which was proven yesterday to be false with continued economic growth of 0.6% in the last quarter. I think it's entirely possible that we won't reach a full-blown recession at all. The economy might hover around flat for the next few quarters and then start a steady gain.

No, I'm calling for a depression, which is 10% negative GDP growth during the contractionary phase. We are going through a period of monetary deflation and that will have a significant negative impact on the GDP. The velocity of the money supply is slowing rapidly.
The first quarter's GDP was artificially inflated due to increases in exports directly due to the weak dollar. As the rest of the world hits the economic slowdown, the negative growth will be more pronounced. There was also a pronounced inventory build, which is the GDP equivalent of corporate channel stuffing. Inventory build alone accounted for .8% GDP growth.
There is still significant debate over whether or not we're in a recession. The economic decelleration has increased since the beginning of the year, and I had expected exports to give a 'false OK' on the GDP. I hadn't factored in that large of an inventory build - that's extremely troublesome for the future.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily...53.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story

I don't know where you get the idea that no respected economists are calling for a recession. There are plenty of economic cheerleaders who ignore negative data and talk about continued growth of the US economy, but there is an increasing number of respected authorities who have stated that we're in for a recession.

 

[PCL_128]

No, I'm calling for a depression, which is 10% negative GDP growth during the contractionary phase.

Ok, so you're even nuttier than I thought. Thanks for the clarification. There will be no depression, and any recession will last no more than three quarters.

I don't know where you get the idea that no respected economists are calling for a recession.

Read my post. I never said that. What I said was that your posts are far more extreme than the opinions of any respected economist. Yes, there are many respected economists predicting a recession. But most of them are predicting that it will be mild, and only last for less than a year. Far different than your doomsday predictions.

 

[Andy]

Ok, so you're even nuttier than I thought. Thanks for the clarification. There will be no depression, and any recession will last no more than three quarters.

While I can't speak with certitude on a depression, the nation's economy is getting sucked into a liquidity trap. A liquidity trap is going to increase both the length and depth of a recession and can easily tip it into the 10% negative growth criteria.
You sound totally ignorant of the definition of an economic depression. You seem to think that an economic depression is always like the one experienced in the US in the 30s. Japan just went through a decade long economic depression in the 90s.
Quite frankly, I am of the opinion that most of my posts are so far beyond your comprehension that you scoff at them rather than admit your ignorance on the subject.

 

[PCL_128]

Quite frankly, I am of the opinion that most of my posts are so far beyond your comprehension that you scoff at them rather than admit your ignorance on the subject.

That's quite an ego you've got there. I understand your posts, I merely find your conclusions absurd.

 

[jehtplane]

While I can't speak with certitude on a depression, the nation's economy is getting sucked into a liquidity trap. A liquidity trap is going to increase both the length and depth of a recession and can easily tip it into the 10% negative growth criteria.
You sound totally ignorant of the definition of an economic depression. You seem to think that an economic depression is always like the one experienced in the US in the 30s. Japan just went through a decade long economic depression in the 90s.
Quite frankly, I am of the opinion that most of my posts are so far beyond your comprehension that you scoff at them rather than admit your ignorance on the subject.

Well that solves it then , you might as well go buy a shotgun and about 5 feet of string, Good luck!!!!

 

[Andy]

I understand your posts, I merely find your conclusions absurd.

Your responses indicate otherwise.

 

[Colonel Savage]

I'd love to take one, especially since the rumor is that the stand-up lines are going to disappear or nearly so...

What are "stand up" lines, and why are you so altruistic towards your junior pilots regarding a LOA or are you just independently wealthy?

 

[Colonel Savage]

Well that solves it then , you might as well go buy a shotgun and about 5 feet of string, Good luck!!!!

Now that, THAT, was funny!

 

[Lear70]

What are "stand up" lines, and why are you so altruistic towards your junior pilots regarding a LOA or are you just independently wealthy?

Stand up, aka

All-nighter's
High-speeds
CDO's (Continuous Duty Overnights)
Naps

A trip that originates in domicile, typically flies one leg out at about 9-11 at night, has less than legal rest in the hotel (5-7 hours), then flies back to domicile at some unGodly hour like 5 or 6 in the morning. They're continuous duty, which is what makes them legal, with legal rest occurring during the day.

If you nap during the day, shower and shave before going out, sleep 4 hours in the hotel, fly home, and nap again, these can be great if you live in domicile. Personally, I hate them, because I'm not one of those sleep/nap kind of people. I need 7-8 hours of ACTUAL SLEEP or I become a very grumpy person. PCL is one of those people who likes them.

A stand-up LINE is one built with JUST these trips. Those lines are becoming more and more rare because, by airTran rules, you can't do more than 3 of them back to back, must have 3 days off in between them, and get paid 70 hours for 40-50 hours of actual block.

What they're starting to do is mix them, which is questionably legal per the contract. They're not supposed to be mixed, they're supposed to be CDO lines or regular lines. They've also been known to front- or back-load them, which means you have 2 legs at night, or (worse) 2 legs in the morning; these are brutal and I would likely have to call fatigued if I had two of these back-to-back, my body just can't do it.

A mixed line is where you'd have one week of stand-ups, then one week of a 4- or 5-day trip, then another week of stand-ups, then a regular 4- or 5-day trip, blocking and crediting right at 70 hours, which somewhat defeats the purpose of flying CDO's (credit more, fly less).

As to why PCL can take the LOA, he probably has something else he can do on the side, just like we were talking about earlier. He'll have to chime in later (he's probably flying right now).

 

[Colonel Savage]

While I can't speak with certitude on a depression, the nation's economy is getting sucked into a liquidity trap.

Andy, are you reading or listening to any of those online "economists"? Martin Weiss, Bill Bonner, Marc Faber, etc? They are all pessimists, have been for years. Are they calling for a depression this time around?

Our economy is supposed to be cyclical, it flushes out excesses that way, restores economic health. If there are excesses in the airline industry or the nation's economy as a whole, then they will have to go.

IMO, the biggest excess is the supply of hot air on Capitol Hill and Wall Street.

 

[PCL_128]

What are "stand up" lines, and why are you so altruistic towards your junior pilots regarding a LOA or are you just independently wealthy?

Lear is correct. I have a part-time gig on the side that I can turn into a full-time gig that pays more than second-year pay at AirTran. As long as I could keep the benefits, it would be very worthwhile for me.

 

[Capt.LongThrust]

While I can't speak with certitude on a depression, the nation's economy is getting sucked into a liquidity trap. A liquidity trap is going to increase both the length and depth of a recession and can easily tip it into the 10% negative growth criteria.
You sound totally ignorant of the definition of an economic depression. You seem to think that an economic depression is always like the one experienced in the US in the 30s. Japan just went through a decade long economic depression in the 90s.
Quite frankly, I am of the opinion that most of my posts are so far beyond your comprehension that you scoff at them rather than admit your ignorance on the subject.

Ahhhhhhhh. Nice work on the cut and paste. You sound so smart. I bet you wow the ladies with that kind of genius analytical bull$hit.

Gotta love a guy calling the fire department about his neighbors house on fire, with his own smoke alarm going off in the background.

 

[newnan]

What they're starting to do is mix them, which is questionably legal per the contract. They're not supposed to be mixed, they're supposed to be CDO lines or regular lines. They've also been known to front- or back-load them, which means you have 2 legs at night, or (worse) 2 legs in the morning;

Since when? And the BOD is OK with this? Any thing to substantiate this or is it just something you've heard from someone else? Maybe you ought to post this on the Forum to make everyone aware of it. 7 years and I've never seen them "front or back loaded" as you claim. They did do that with red eye's but that's a whole other can of worms.