Airline Mergers!

[IronCityBlue]

As a result, it [Delta]features prominently in most consolidation scenarios concocted by industry insiders and shareholders alike.
Bye Bye--General Lee

Figuring prominently is one thing, domnating and dictating all terms 100% are quite another. All that article says is t hat if there's mergers that are going to happen among legacy airlines, Delta is the airline most definately that's going to be involved. It says nothing about Delta being so strong they do what's necessary to liquidate the second largest airline in the country.

 

[GogglesPisano]

NOPE!! NEVER! Would have been smart after merging with Western, but the "Good Ole Boys" felt there was NO MONEY to be made out west? HUGE MISTAKE!!

I have a Delta timetable from the mid-90's with service to Tokyo, Hong Kong, Tapei, Seoul, and Nagoya.

 

[Deadalus]

Now that the experts believe consolidation is about to happen. Lets have fun with a few potential combinations!

1. Delta will strike a deal with United. New name will be Delta Airlines. Hubs will be JFK, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, San Fransico. Widebody fleet the same. Delta Atlantic routes fit well with United's Pacific routes.

2. US Airways will strike a deal with Northwest. New name will be US Airways. Hubs will be Philadephia, Charlotte, Detroit, MSP, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. Both carriers large Airbus operators. Airbus widebody fleet. US Airways growing Atlantic routes fit well with Northwest's Pacific routes.

3. Continental will strike a deal with Alaska and AirTran. New name will be Continental Airlines. Hubs will be Newark, Atlanta, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Fransico, and Houston. With the new caps on Newark, Atlanta will be domestic relief and feed up and down the east coast. Seattle and Alaska will feed the Pacific routes. Continental strong across the Atlantic and established pacific routes through micronesia.

4. Jetblue will strike a deal with Frontier, Spirit, and Virgin America. New Name will be Virgin America. Hubs will be JFK, Denver, San Fransico, Ft Lauderdale, and Long Beach. Will feed Virgin Atlantic internationally.

5. American will stay American

6. Southwest will remain Southwest

Well these are predicitons just for fun. What are some of yours? Have fun with it folks. Please keep your seniority intergrations out of this.

Easy, almost being bought by US Airways raised the General's blood pressure. Having us snag Northwest away would surely send him over the edge.

 

[General Lee]

Figuring prominently is one thing, domnating and dictating all terms 100% are quite another. All that article says is t hat if there's mergers that are going to happen among legacy airlines, Delta is the airline most definately that's going to be involved. It says nothing about Delta being so strong they do what's necessary to liquidate the second largest airline in the country.

That was a rumor by a United pilot. Maybe Tilton sees the writing on the wall and wants to cash out. I don't know. And, I didn't write that Delta article, but it puts Delta up there as pretty important in deciding the final shakeup and molding of future fleets.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Easy, almost being bought by US Airways raised the General's blood pressure. Having us snag Northwest away would surely send him over the edge.

What a mess that would be.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Follow up reading on DAL, "Airline Without A Pilot". http://www.amazon.com/Airline-Without-Pilot-Leadership-Bankruptcy/dp/0977207617/ref=sid_dp_dp.

All of that is done since Leo and the boys left, along with Grinstein. We now have a new board of directors, and new management, with mostly Ex NWA guys at the helm now. There were some mistakes made in the past though, no doubt. Let's hope there are fewer mistakes in the future.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[afres bum]

i think AMR is just trying to make DAL pay more for NWA than they would otherwise pay...

Credit Suisse upgrades Northwest on possible deal with Delta, AMR counter offer


NEW YORK, Jan 14, 2008
-- Analysts at Credit Suisse on Monday upgraded Northwest Airlines Corp. to outperform from neutral, seeing "a high probability" of a merger involving Delta Air Lines Inc.
The analysts also see a likely counter offer for Northwest from AMR Corp., operator of American Airlines, the largest U.S.-based carrier by traffic, and the possibility of a sale of Northwest to Continental Airlines Inc.

"The implication to our revised thesis is that while Delta is likely the first mover in industry M&A, it may not be the final mover and hence believe there is a material probability it may not participate in industry M&A, or, be forced to overpay," Credit Suisse said. If Continental preempts Delta to combine with UAL Corp., and AMR successfully outbids Delta for Northwest, "Delta is at risk of still being the odd carrier out (under which scenario, we would expect it to reconsider its stance on US Airways)."

The analysts said there is a 50% probability that a potential Delta announcement could pan out in the coming weeks given the high stakes and urgency.

Credit Suisse also said, in bidding for Northwest, AMR had nothing to lose "by making a deal [that could prove quite damaging to AMR's own interests over the long-term] more expensive for a potentially formidable competitor." Padraic Cassidy pc/vj

 

[Superpilot92]

I think USAIR and NWA makes the most sense as far as fleets and structure. I anticipate this being a big fight between the big 5 carriers. Get the popcorn. One thing is for SURE though, General Lee is the lead cheerleader for DAL. RAH RAH RAH GL

 

[General Lee]

I think USAIR and NWA makes the most sense as far as fleets and structure. I anticipate this being a big fight between the big 5 carriers. Get the popcorn. One thing is for SURE though, General Lee is the lead cheerleader for DAL. RAH RAH RAH GL

Thanks for that title of lead chearleader (?). I am just giving my opinion backed up by some articles. I think there are some better choices than others out there, and I know I have no say in the matter. Regardless, this is an opinion forum and I will continue to give mine, no doubt. I still think DL/NWA have the highest probability thanks to Anderson knowing everyone at NWA, and the fact that both are Skyteam members with friends in high places (AF and KLM). I don't see a USAir and DL merge ever--thanks to huge overlap of hubs. Again, I still think DL/NWA, UAL/CAL, and the others scrambling.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Jamis81]

Now that the experts believe consolidation is about to happen. Lets have fun with a few potential combinations!

1. Delta will strike a deal with United. New name will be Delta Airlines. Hubs will be JFK, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, San Fransico. Widebody fleet the same. Delta Atlantic routes fit well with United's Pacific routes.

2. US Airways will strike a deal with Northwest. New name will be US Airways. Hubs will be Philadephia, Charlotte, Detroit, MSP, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. Both carriers large Airbus operators. Airbus widebody fleet. US Airways growing Atlantic routes fit well with Northwest's Pacific routes.

3. Continental will strike a deal with Alaska and AirTran. New name will be Continental Airlines. Hubs will be Newark, Atlanta, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Fransico, and Houston. With the new caps on Newark, Atlanta will be domestic relief and feed up and down the east coast. Seattle and Alaska will feed the Pacific routes. Continental strong across the Atlantic and established pacific routes through micronesia.

4. Jetblue will strike a deal with Frontier, Spirit, and Virgin America. New Name will be Virgin America. Hubs will be JFK, Denver, San Fransico, Ft Lauderdale, and Long Beach. Will feed Virgin Atlantic internationally.

5. American will stay American

6. Southwest will remain Southwest

Well these are predicitons just for fun. What are some of yours? Have fun with it folks. Please keep your seniority intergrations out of this.

NWA and SWA work together to acquire Airtran, NWA takes the 717's SWA takes the 737's. They split the rest of the assets. NWA fully acquires Midwest and uses all the acquired 717's to replace the DC-9's. After this NWA acquires/merges with Frontier for the A320's and the Denver Base.

Here's my hypothetical merger scenario.
anyone else?

 

[On Your Six]

i think AMR is just trying to make DAL pay more for NWA than they would otherwise pay...

Credit Suisse upgrades Northwest on possible deal with Delta, AMR counter offer


NEW YORK, Jan 14, 2008
-- Analysts at Credit Suisse on Monday upgraded Northwest Airlines Corp. to outperform from neutral, seeing "a high probability" of a merger involving Delta Air Lines Inc.
The analysts also see a likely counter offer for Northwest from AMR Corp., operator of American Airlines, the largest U.S.-based carrier by traffic, and the possibility of a sale of Northwest to Continental Airlines Inc.

"The implication to our revised thesis is that while Delta is likely the first mover in industry M&A, it may not be the final mover and hence believe there is a material probability it may not participate in industry M&A, or, be forced to overpay," Credit Suisse said. If Continental preempts Delta to combine with UAL Corp., and AMR successfully outbids Delta for Northwest, "Delta is at risk of still being the odd carrier out (under which scenario, we would expect it to reconsider its stance on US Airways)."

The analysts said there is a 50% probability that a potential Delta announcement could pan out in the coming weeks given the high stakes and urgency.

Credit Suisse also said, in bidding for Northwest, AMR had nothing to lose "by making a deal [that could prove quite damaging to AMR's own interests over the long-term] more expensive for a potentially formidable competitor." Padraic Cassidy pc/vj

AA could not credibly bid for NWA. MSP, ORD and DTW hubs are too close together - no way the DOJ would agree to that. So, which of those three would they close? MSP? DTW? How many layoffs would that produce? How would those local politicians respond? Yeah, AA has zero credibility here and Delta should call their bluff.

AA is also afraid to be left out in the cold in a merger wave - but they have almost no financial flexibility. AA's stock is in the toilet and any competing bid would probably include stock and cash (AA can't afford more debt). AA, like UAL, is dead in the water with zero growth prospects...

 

[MINIME]

Not to mention, after what happened with TWA employees, most airlines' labor groups would fight an AA merger, acquisition or whatever. I'll venture to say that most pilot groups do not want to be in a position of defending their seniority or intergration against AA.

 

[Shrek]

It is definitely a Mexican standoff..........

My wild prediction - in the end..........nothin.

 

[Muddauber]

I think it is likely that Richard Anderson will merge Delta with Northwest.

Pros: Complimentary routes.

Cons:

1. Boeing carrier versus Airbus carrier

2. Different pilot cultures.

Muddy

 

[spinup]

General,

I have to say that your posts are among the most ego-centric I have read... You logic is flawed son. Your cited articles are theories only, not scientific fact. Do yourself a favor and take a look at all of the miss-diagnosed certainties of past surrounding this industry. The list is EXTREME to say the least. DAL is most definitely NOT in the driver seat at this time, and is by all accounts late with their merger rhetoric. All DAL has accomplished to this point is stating that they see a need for consolidation and have a Wish List. Thats it!

Talk of breaking up airlines is WILDLY SPECULATIVE. Especially when you forget that the UAL route structure is Globally superior to any existing carrier today, and to the very least certainly that of DAL. Speculatively, if a UAL/DAL thing had to happen, it would seem to me that the carrier with the better global structure would remain the most intact.

As an add-on, I have to laugh out loud every time you tout that the Delta name would prevail because "my CEO said so." We all know THEY would NEVER go back on their word. Take it for what it is, a rallying cry. An attempt to get the troops on board with managements direction. Your making more of it than is reasonable.

Believe me, UA, CA, NW and others have their own itinerary which may or may not be aligned with that of DAL. And Delta may find themselves in in dire straights as AA/NW and UA/CA merge. Only one thing is certain as far as I'm concerned, the Pacific heavy hitters will be involved one way or another if this is to happen. Where does that leave DAL?

 

[aircowboy]

What the general fails to mention is that Delta is desperate for access to Asia which is what NWA and UA enjoy, the majority of growth will be there. Without it Delta is screwed.

 

[johnsonrod]

What the general fails to mention is that Delta is desperate for access to Asia which is what NWA and UA enjoy, the majority of growth will be there. Without it Delta is screwed.

A little dramatic wouldn't you say? Neither NWA or UAL are doing that great right now despite their Asian access. If mergers are permitted by the DOJ (no certainty), I think you'll see Delta bagging either NWA or UAL's Asian routes (liquidation sale - CAL can take the domestic side and add West Coast hubs).

UAL's CEO seems determined to run the airline into the ground - he wants to cash out and golf more.

 

[FmrFreightDog]

Neither NWA or UAL are doing that great right now despite their Asian access.

Funny, I seem to recall NWA making more money than DAL last quarter. Not sure why you think NWA isn't doing that great right now.

 

[General Lee]

What the general fails to mention is that Delta is desperate for access to Asia which is what NWA and UA enjoy, the majority of growth will be there. Without it Delta is screwed.

I guess you missed the fact that we used to go all over Asia (Hong Kong, Fukuoka, Taipei, Bangkok, Nagoya) along with current flights to Tokyo and Seoul. We are starting Shanghai nonstop from ATL in March, and we still have rights to the other cities if we wish to return. We just need the planes (which we are getting--plenty of 777LRs) and we will return to some of those. We were also just awarded authority to Singapore and New Zealand, and we are watching the current open skies talks with Australia going on right now. But you knew all of that, right? Riiiiiiiight. Stick with things you know.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[jrcpilot]

Well Gen...It has already been said that if you merge with United, Delta goes away right along with SLC and CVG. Why....because NOBODY KNOWS who Delta is in the Orient. You say United, everyone knows! Northwest...same thing! You might lose YOUR name! Good Luck.

Nobody knew who Delta was in 1991 when Delta Acquired the Pan Am routes for a way bigger price tag than they were worth. Now Delta is a leader across the Atlantic and ALOT OF PEOPLE KNOW DELTA all over Europe. So the name thing could go either way but I would say the Delta brand may edge the NWA brand out. It could go the other way however just as people have stated that if it were United and Delta, Delta would lose the name. However I think the management at DL will negotiate to keep the DL name. Just my opinion