Here are some numbers to consider. We consumed 7.593 billion barrels of crude oil in 2005. When peak oil hits the experts are looking at a decline rate of 3-7%. Taking the mid number, 5%, you are going to be short about 1 billion barrels per year in by the third year of the peak oil event.
Wiggums,
Since you read articles at the
www.theoildrum.com blog have you learned anything about geologist Jeffrey Brown's (oil drum id: West Texas)
Export Land Model?
It has actually been proven.
It is also why the importers of oil are going to have to deal with instead of 5% declines something more like 10%.
The "Export Land Model" works like this:
Act like all the exporters of the world are one country. We'll call it
Export Land.
This Export land produces
60 million barrels a day.
They export
40 mbd.
They consume internally
20 mbd.
--When the declines begin they will lose 5% per year from their production. So after one year their production drops from
60 to
57 mbd.
--Their internal consumption will continue to rise, especially since their economy is getting such an incredible boost because of the oil revenues, and consumption will climb like the exporters today are seeing at about 5% per year. So after year one their consumption has climbed from
20 to
21 mbd.
--End of year 1:
Available oil to importers is down from 40 mbd to 36 mbd.
A loss of 10%!
--Year 2 production of Export Land down to
54.15 mbd
--Internal consumption of Export Land up to
22.05 mbd
--End of year 2: Available oil to importers down from
36 mbd to
32.1 mbd.
A loss of 10.8%!!!
I think I actually did a good job explaining that. Do you agree?
So because the Export Land model will probably be what happens to the world,
we'll need more than DOUBLE (about 2.25 X) the 28 new coal to oil plants you came up with just to keep our energy level even!
We're not used to having level consumption, and level consumption alone is horrible for an economy.
Competition for these available exports will heat up tremendously between countries like the U.S. and China. This is why China is circling the globe to lock in long-term contracts.
Understanding the Export Land Model will make one understand that the problem will be even worse than they first thought.
A 10% decline rate for importers is scary as hell..........
The DOE Study didn't even consider the Export Land Model when they made their assumptions on future needs.
This is why I think war is the only answer. I think it's our present and future.
Still an optimist though! I have to be, I have a baby girl coming in June!!
Jet
