FlyBoeingJets
YES, that's NICE
- Joined
- Mar 20, 2003
- Posts
- 1,802
SWA has reached absolute minimal cost. There is absolutely no way to reduce costs at SWA other than through bankruptcy.
The legacies have restructured their costs to compete at the break even level of SW.
This doesn't mean SW will ever go into debt, but quite the contrary. SW will remain probably break even if it maintains its current growth. The problem is the company will be devalued if it can't maintain the ROI the investors expect.
At that point SW will will have significant assets (after the stock slide), be virtually debt free, and be heavily undervalued. This will make it a sitting duck to investors trying to disassemble the company. To protect itself, SW will have to become legacy like in debt or take the company private. The best process to do this is through bankruptcy in my opinion.
Good response. I will have to look at the next quarter's reports to figure out if the legacies have gotten their costs down far enough. Not convinced of that one yet. But it has gotten close enough that the international route premiums make up the difference. I'll agree with you that legacy profit will be even with SWA in 2007 and may be even better than SWA in 2008 when the hedges are almost gone. Earnings issues at Airtran and JetBlue tell us a lot about 2007 LCC trends. But that has always been the case in good times. Great profits at Legacies and pretty good at SWA.
SWA stock is already undervalued. So your prediction is already right. If it goes down further, without drops in other airline stocks, I would definitely expect some Walstreet money flowing into the stock. Not to run it, but to speculate on the stock recovery. Breaking it apart for the assets...I haven't thought of that one. The 737-700s are worth a pretty penny.
I can't imagine the company not buying back stock with excess cash before the value of the stock gets low enough for an asset play. But who has $4 Billion lying around to buy up 50% of LUV stock if it goes down to $10 shr??
BK to fix costs??? That is going to be impossible unless the company is showing losses, is mortgaged to the hilt and can't get new money (loans) to continue. You can't just go BK because you don't like your employees anymore. The lawsuits would be incredible. The payouts for terminated promises would not be worth the expense. Even in Delta's weakened state everyone due retirement monies is getting some sort of settlement.
By your reasoning AA and CAL should go into BK right now!!
We'll see who is right in '09
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