ABX update

[GoABX]

1. 8 PFEs furloughed in January, 5 will try to upgrade.

2. New 76 proffer, 4/4, January start. (MANY more needed)

3. Japanese 76 pilot outsource deal is not quite dead yet.

4. Losing 2-3 cities in Jan.

 

[T-DOGGIN]

So what does that mean? Are WE ever coming back or better yet should WE....

 

[xspud]

What's the outsourcing deal? Trying to fly your planes with contract crews?

I think it's the other direction but don't have details. Care to elaborate, GoABX?

 

[penguin22]

What's the outsourcing deal? Trying to fly your planes with contract crews?

No, its with our crews. But its not a done deal yet.

 

[Bitter]

Which cities are going away and did we gain any?

 

[xspud]

Which cities are going away and did we gain any?

I read in scheduling notes that DSM and CLE were not going to be terminators in January...implied they would be through stops. No other city changes were mentioned there.

 

[penguin22]

I read in scheduling notes ....

which scheduling notes are you talking about? Jan bid packs aren't out yet...

 

[abxaviator]

He means the Minutes from the monthly Union/Company scheduling meeting. They were attached to Friday's weekly wrapup.

 

[penguin22]

got it. thanks.

 

[Bitter]

Any recalls or hiring next year?

 

[xspud]

Any recalls or hiring next year?

It seems like that question deserves some response but the fact is nobody can say for certain whether there will ever be any recalls or hiring at ABX.

My opinion is that ABX will be around for the long haul and that eventually we will need to recall/hire. My question is whether ABX will be a smaller company down the road (ie: 50-60 767's) or whether we grow back to the size we were. Which direction we go depends a lot on factors that are out of our control. In my opinion, ABX has a pretty good handle on where we are and a pretty good strategy for the future, but whether it pans out is anybody's guess.

My guess for 2007 into 2008 is that 767's will replace DC8's, the DC8 crews will be absorbed into the other airplanes, so that would postpone recall/hiring. We have more 767's coming than we have active DC8's, but how many DC9's will be flying a year from now? There's no replacement aircraft on the horizon, but the DC9 is not the "airplane of the future" (of course, neither is the 727/DC8-70/A300).

Based on the above, my guess is that we won't see any recall/hiring in early 2007.

I hope that I'm wrong and that they start calling everyone back in January!

 

[abxaviator]

Like xspud said, the US fleet DHL has flying for them is NOT a long-term fleet with the exception of the 767's. Just as FedEx recently announced long-term plans to replace their entire 727 fleet with 90 757's, the DHL group needs also to come up with a fleet replacement plan. Until such plans are made known (if they ever are) there will be very little upon which to surmise what the future may look like.

 

[AV8OR]

It seems like that question deserves some response but the fact is nobody can say for certain whether there will ever be any recalls or hiring at ABX.

My opinion is that ABX will be around for the long haul and that eventually we will need to recall/hire. My question is whether ABX will be a smaller company down the road (ie: 50-60 767's) or whether we grow back to the size we were. Which direction we go depends a lot on factors that are out of our control. In my opinion, ABX has a pretty good handle on where we are and a pretty good strategy for the future, but whether it pans out is anybody's guess.

My guess for 2007 into 2008 is that 767's will replace DC8's, the DC8 crews will be absorbed into the other airplanes, so that would postpone recall/hiring. We have more 767's coming than we have active DC8's, but how many DC9's will be flying a year from now? There's no replacement aircraft on the horizon, but the DC9 is not the "airplane of the future" (of course, neither is the 727/DC8-70/A300).

Based on the above, my guess is that we won't see any recall/hiring in early 2007.

I hope that I'm wrong and that they start calling everyone back in January!

Amazing isn't it X. DHL rolls into the US, gives UPS and FedEx the finger on national television to the tune of 150 Mill, spends 300 mill on a brand new hub , then another 300 mill to buy the old hub, paints everything by-God yellow, flys 20-40 yearold aircraft at 1/3-1/2 of their competition's pay rates and work rules, (while we give them outstanding performance, DHL's assesment, not mine) and then has the gall to whine about costs. Socialist ingrates. We, AStar and ABX have way more in common than differences. Sorry they roped yall into our nightmare.

 

[xspud]

We, AStar and ABX have way more in common than differences.

Agreed. It's a shame that they've set this up so that employees (not just pilots) must view each other as competitors, instead of viewing FedEx & UPS as competitors.

 

[Bitter]

Agreed. It's a shame that they've set this up so that employees (not just pilots) must view each other as competitors, instead of viewing FedEx & UPS as competitors.

Agreed, while everyone is fighting over the work, the only thing that suffers is service. DHL is already a very distant third player, and getting father behind each day.

The contractor business model is working poorly in the US, and multiple airlines etc is bleeding them dry. There effort to save money by placing express on trucks instead of aircraft is fool hardy, at best it might work, some of the time. That is not good enough. Freight will be lost.

DHL, in my humble opinion, just does not yet grasp the US express market.

As for Abx, it will just keep shrinking. The eights are done, and the nines are going, slowly but surely......One line at a time. No growth, no replacement a/c in the works, and Hete fighting with the germans over the remainder of the 76's.....All adds up to shrinkage. From an 850 pilot airline to a 600 pilot airline.....how long till we are at 500? Two years is my guess.

I would have to guess thst if 60 changes to 65, furloughs will have to follow.

What a sad state of affairs.

Anybody think differently?