There is a lot going on right now that is *NOT* good. Too much to go into without boring you to tears.
The bottom line is this: oil, oil, oil (or fuel, fuel, fuel).
If prices can stay at or below $2 a gallon for regular unleaded gasoline (and correspondingly, for Jet-A RELATIVELY) then the economy has a chance to turn around.
The problem is inertia.
The economy kept going along fine (for a bit) when gas was $4 a gallon because of its upward momentum and it took awhile for it to go the other way. Now we are dropping like a stone and it is gonna' take awhile for it to slow and reverse.
Unfortunately, by the time it reverses there are going to be other problems that we are creating right now (inflation for one) that will effectively cancel out a lot of the recovery and thereby delay it. And if gasoline goes back to $3+ then forget it.
The economy is sluggish. By the time people realize what has happened they're six months into it or more.
The biggest hit right now is housing. It isn't sub-primers and adjustables getting pounded now, but regular folks with 20- and 30-year mortgages. I have another friend every week losing his or her job from different fields (aviation, management, astronomy, magazine writing, etc.) and all of them have mortgages... What will happen when those people hand over their keys to the house?
Hang on for a bumpy ride, folks.