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Your thoughts on the economy picking up....

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Well-known member
Mar 10, 2002
I'm no financial wizard...heck I bought 700 shares of AIG recently..... but it seems that the DJIA has been having a few good weeks of gains... It seems as though the floor keeps on getting re-established. I feel pretty confident that soon it will get into the mid 8000's and eventually back into the 9000's..

What are your thoughts about it.....Does the DJIA, S&P and Nasdaq improving have a direct coorelation to possible owner demand increasing...

I figure that folks may be willing to skip one year at the island home, but once things improve a little they may get the itch to travel again..

I just got my 1st duty at residence. I finally joined the club!!
I'm not going to make any attempt to predict the future, but looking at market movements as an attempt to gauge the economy as a whole is not worth your time. Most of the historically largest weekly/monthly moves in the Dow are from the past year or so and the great depression(and the rather anomalous 87 crash)- markets swing wildly during times of uncertainty.

http://www.mdleasing.com/djia-losses.htm look at the % records- mostly from right now and the 30s
i'm pessimistic.

Even during the great depressions entrance there were times of steady gains for weeks at a time then sudden losses.

I really cant see whats been driving these gains the last few weeks and feel the bottoms gonna fall out again. I'm no genius and dont have much tied up...but with worsening unemployment numbers I cant see how this little bubble will stick around.
Historically, unemployment increases at the beginning of a recovery. However, history rarely repeats itself... Oh, I don't know!
I'm no expert either, but unemployment claims were down by 20,000 this week. Yes usually unemployment numbers are a lagging indicator because they are a reward looking mechanism. Many indications as well as many economist seem to think that we are getting closer to being out of this thing. Take a real look at earnings as they start to roll in next week. the numbers will be bad but will they be worse than expected? Also there have been marginal improvement in manufacturing, retail sales and home sales. All of which would seem to indicate a bottoming economy, remember the market is forward looking, lately there could be 3 pieces of bad news and one good news and the market improves. What I would like to see in the market are 40-50 point days to either side on a consistent bases this equals stability. At this point I am cautiously optimistic, but there are still many factors that could allow more regression in the economy.
Without getting in depth, I believe some of the more major gains in the past weeks have been from good reports out of many of the major sectors..Today was Wells Fargo, and lately there have been improving housing numbers, good news from the tech sector, and retail numbers have showed a bit of an improvement.

I believe people can be very fickle in their thinking. We are swayed either way by reports that come out almost daily... Just think what would have happened if the media never would have reported all the negativity. People would be spending just as freely as when things were good..IMHO..

I try to be a realist...I belive things will get better just as they have in the past. I believe everything in the economy is cyclic. And we DO follow patterns. They say recessions last around 18months..And we started this recession back in late '07..So basically we're coming up on 18 months..And low and behold we MAY be starting to turn to the positive...

I also belive their cannot be that many experts on the economy out there . Since they all seem to say different things, clearly some or most of them are wrong!!

I wanted to buy Citigroup at $1.00.. I made the mistake of asking some "informed pilots".. They said bad idea..So stupid me didn't do it.. Well I would have tripled my money in a little over a month.. So I bought AIG recently..Not because I'm a stock market guru, but because I am buying low, and selling high. (hopefully).Just like I learned in the 6th grade.

I believe things will turn around like always....Hopefully before any major job altering events!:nuts:
Ford was a buck in Jan. NOW 4.23 Look up (F on NYSE) Thinking it's time to jump in.

One would think. My ?. Will Ford be able to compete against an "orderly reorganized" Government Motors.
Ford for me would be a bit riskier than AIG, purely based on the fact that I don't think the gov't. will be willing to bail out Ford (or any car manufacturer) the same way theyhave and will bail out the AIG's of the world.

From what little research I've done, AIG can't be nationalized the same as a citigroup could ( the reason everyone told me not to buy citi)..

Just my not-so-scientific-data
I've been buying on the dips and selling on the up days. I feel confident the worst is behind us, but what do I know.

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