Your thoughts on the economy picking up....

[RNObased]

The ecomony will pick back up, but not back to '07 levels not for a long time.

If you go out and look around people are spending money. How much money is the question. I sold my truck a month ago and have been looking at vehicals, the dealerships are busy. One dealer told me he has sold twice as many cars this march as in March of '08.

Airports are packed as are the airliners, these people have to be going somewhere and spending something. Was in a mall in Dallas last week, it was a packed. I mean standing room only.

This is just unscientific observations, but compared to January when the airports and malls were empty there is some sign of life out there.

 

[LegacyDriver]

Signs of life as oil creeps upward...

Long way out of these woods, friends.

 

[DUATS]

This recession is bad - but not as bad as some recent downturns that we seem to forget.

In '82, we had 12% inflation, 17% fixed rate home mortgages, and 10% unemployment. Today, inflation is zero, home mortgage rates are at 50 year lows, and unemployment is still only 8.5%

I think the difference is that in 1982, CNN was one year old and the only cable news network. Today, I can't even count them all, and they have to talk about something.

 

[LegacyDriver]

This recession is bad - but not as bad as some recent downturns that we seem to forget.

In '82, we had 12% inflation, 17% fixed rate home mortgages, and 10% unemployment.

And a man in the White House who understood basic economics. We don't have that today.

Today, inflation is zero, home mortgage rates are at 50 year lows, and unemployment is still only 8.5%

Inflation is ANYTHING but ZERO. Perhaps in this six month band it is ZERO, but that is because the entire global economy has hit the skids. We are flirting with DEFLATION.

The FED is pushing rates down to stimulate housing and that policy will eventually lead to inflation and the fed will have no ability to "stimulate" anything unless rates go back up. You can't move down from a baseline of effective zero.

As for inflation--non-Keynsian inflation--as you mentioned, well... That will come. Give it time. They are printing greenbacks like monopoly money now... Oil prices are on the rise. Obama will probably push through another pie-in-the-sky Min. Wage Increase, etc. Inflation is coming.

Unemployment has jumped to multi-decade lows in both total numbers *and* first-time claims. "Only 8.5%" is not a good sign. 4% is considered excessive.

I think the difference is that in 1982, CNN was one year old and the only cable news network. Today, I can't even count them all, and they have to talk about something.

And in 1982 we had someone with some brains running the show.

 

[Almerick07]

financial markets will pull the economy out of this...good ole stock market predicting a recovery will create one. Consumer spending will be slow to pick up keeping inflation in check "for now". I am actually a financial advisor and and using a balanced mix of dividend paying stocks (reinvesting all dividends) using some real return strategies incase inflation picks up sooner than later. Our inventory has been LOADED with very high quality 5-7% tax free bonds and with taxes on their way up and a yield curve that just cannot support this rates there is a major opportunity on that front. International will recover after we do so no rush overseas. Im tired of typing...feel like Im at work, hang in there this is probably going to be a slow recovery but a recovery none the less.

 

[pilotyip]

Avoiding deflation

financial markets will pull the economy out of this...good ole stock market predicting a recovery will create one. Consumer spending will be slow to pick up keeping inflation in check "for now".

Inflation is preferable to deflation. I believe deflation in this market is a much greater threat than inflation. Therefore lots of cheap money being printer to avoid deflation. Deflation as in the 1930's destroys the incentive to buy, because it may be cheaper in the future. Although I also believe inflation will a problem in the future so real estate and commodities are in my holdings. Good new out of Detroit last week Ford anounced they will increase production by 25% this quarter. My old company flew 3 FoMoCo auto part charters this week.

 

[FalconPilot69]

This is a one year snap shot of the dow as of this morning.

It is ugly, but hopefully we are moving in the right direction.

 

[Andy Neill]

It is ugly, but hopefully we are moving in the right direction.

We might have said that last April, or last July, or last October or November too.

 

[FalconPilot69]

I guess I could have explained myself a little better in my thoughts regarding the graph. It shows a bottom at 6200 and then a somewhat steady climb. Lets hope the 6200 was bottom and we are on our way up. Sorry for the confusion.

We might have said that last April, or last July, or last October or November too.

 

[Andy Neill]

I guess I could have explained myself a little better in my thoughts regarding the graph. It shows a bottom at 6200 and then a somewhat steady climb. Lets hope the 6200 was bottom and we are on our way up. Sorry for the confusion.

I understand, but the same could have been said a year ago when the DOW climbed steadily from 11,750 to 13,000 before it continued downward.
The same could have been said in July when it climbed form 11,000 to 11,750.
The same could have been said in Nov when it climbed from 7500 to 9000.

You may be right but the same picture resulted in different outcomes over the last 2 years.