Yet another low blow by UAL

[SanJuanPlebe]

Don't worry about Mesa

Hey Kids,

Don't worry too much about Mesa. While it looks good on paper, we're as predictable as any Seattle team in a playoff....we'll choke!

Watch us blow this Dash 8 deal in Denver. Hell, Frontier is going to kick us to kirb end of August........

We can't keep/manage the business we have, let alone garner anything new....

You'll be back flying UAL colors before we can change paintjobs.....

Sad but true!

The Plebe

 

[Jeepman]

Re: Oh No...

The prophecy is true.. Neo is not the ONE...MESA is. Thanks Morpheus, i mean United.

......Tank, I need an exit!

 

[Wiskey Driver]

It sure changed my stance on the RJ's. I'll never argue with a mainline pilot about them again. Their prophecy turned true. Although I have to say that if Sept 11th never happened that things would be different.

The RJ portion of your statement is correct, while we were all too happy to stick out our chests and profess that "we fly Rj's" main line routes were being sent our way for 70% less cost. Where is the main line job going to come from for us now??? Sept 11 was not the start of all this, and over inflated economy was the true villin.

S hit, should have taken the red pill!!!

WD.

 

[Mayday911]

I did notice that the Mesa RJs being flown for Frontier no longer say FRONTIER on the side. They are just plain white with MESA on the tail.

Curious,

Mayday.

 

[SanJuanPlebe]

Mesa Paint Jobs

Don't read into it.

We're too cheap to paint the planes for the right code-share.

Have you seen some of our Beech 1900s? ALL WHITE!!

They say it's because they can use them in all of our "code share" systems, but I note that at least ComAir and SkyWest have enough pride to paint their names on their spare aircraft....

Not us.....go figure.....

The Plebe

 

[WhiteCloud]

Re: Mesa Paint Jobs

Have you seen some of our Beech 1900s? ALL WHITE!!

They need to get some of those magnetic strip signs like the ones contractors use on vans depending on the code share of the flight.

 

[acaTerry]

The RJ portion of your statement is correct, while we were all too happy to stick out our chests and profess that "we fly Rj's" main line routes were being sent our way for 70% less cost. Where is the main line job going to come from for us now??? Sept 11 was not the start of all this, and over inflated economy was the true villin.

You're right. I was just along the lines of how it took Sep 11th to really drive the point home. So far as the mainline jobs...good point. I guess we better accept the higher possibility that regionals are going to be an involuntary career for most. Especially with the 70 and 90 seat RJ's. Don't seem so "regional" anymore....

 

[Wiskey Driver]

No it's regional alright, one need look no further than the sub-standard compensation packages to realize where you are!!!!! I'm working on my exit as I type, this level of aviation is for some kid that lives at home with mommy and daddy and wants to make movie and candy money!!!

WD.

 

[acaTerry]

Grandius Exitus!

 

[erjman]

Competition survives

Before we all go pissing on mesa for being a low bidder, cancer, plague, or whatever we like to call them, here's my take. Airlines do what they have to to secure their business. The fact that ACA made their original proposal to UAL post bancruptcy with an increase in rates rather that a decrease may have a lot to do with their being left out. Also, I was talking to one of our station operators in CLE the other day who stated that Mesa is the number 1 operator of the EMB for dispatch reliability. He stated that they consistently have better numbers than the other ERJ operators.
If Mesa wants to garner new business, and they have folks who want to make less per hour for increased job security and advancement, then can we really blame them? Might we do the same if faced with a furlough. I recall reading a post by an AIR WIS guy who stated that they would bid as low as they had to in order to be lower than Mesa. So is AirWIS the new Cancer? I think not, they are just protecting their position.

rd

 

[Wiskey Driver]

Oh I don't believe any of our people said any Bull s hit like that!!

WD.

 

[the turtle]

JO posted this on our company email last nite....me thinks he's feeling a little cocky. He also said, in his webcast of the UAL deal, that UAL wanted daily to increase MESA's RJ order but finally both said "no mas".


***More thoughts from Wall Street on our deal with UAL and how it might impact other carriers. JGO***

-----Original Message-----
From: Jamie Baker [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Tuesday, July 01, 2003 6:28 AM
Subject: Baker/Airlines: UAL/MESA Agreement Negative For ACAI



* Mesa to fly RJs for United - As part of its Express re-allocation
exercise, United has selected Mesa Air Group to operate 35 RJs, plus
additional options. We view the selection of Mesa as a UnitedExpress
partner as a distinct negative for Underweight-rated Atlantic Coast.

* No news is bad news for ACAI - As it relates to United growth re-
allocations, we have long felt that we would hear from the winners
first and the losers last. As such, with SkyWest and Mesa having
affirmed 83 RJ deliveries between them, we are growing increasingly
skeptical as to incremental growth opportunities for ACAI, above and
beyond its handful of deliveries scheduled for this year and next.
Furthermore, the finalization of SKYW/Mesa departure rates applies
further pressure for ACAI to reduce its cost of regional feed.
Recall that ACAI entered the negotiation process seeking a rate
increase, clearly inconsistent with the stated goals of United.

* ACAI pilot concessions do not restore arbitrage - As part of UAL's
labor concessions, the arbitrage between its pilots and those at ACAI
has been reduced by half, or roughly $75/hr per senior captain. With
ACAI pilots agreeing to a 7.5% wage cut from their prior $75/hr
level, about $6/hr of arbitrage has been restored. We view this
amount as largely inconsequential. Put differently, we calculate
ACAI pilots would have to work for free in order to restore the full
breadth of UAL's pre-Ch11 labor differential.

* No change to estimates - There is no change to our Street-low
2003/2004 estimates of $0.57/$0.75, vs. Consensus $0.72/$1.08. Given
the apparent lack of progress between United and ACAI, and United's
apparent preference (thus far) for SKYW and Mesa, we continue to
suggest investors underweight their holdings in ACAI.

Jamie Baker
(212) 622-6713