XJ CRJ FO's

[JPAustin]

Also remember that MAIR is a creditor in these bankruptcy proceedings, and therefore entitled certain rights. Mr. Spanjers has already stated that at this juncture (outside a judge's order) Northwest cannot arbitrarily change the ASA, though they can ask Mesaba to plan for whatever their requests will be to the judge. What Northwest can do is miss payments and hold assets (without payment or reimbursement) pass the bankruptcy declaration date up to what I believe is a 45 (or 90?) day period.

Yes, Northwest owns a "controlling" interest in MAIR (and PNCL I believe), but MAIR and PNCL are still creditors. They are not as helpless as Foley/Spanjers lead us to believe in wielding the financial sword. Granted, it is BECAUSE of that controlling interest that Mr. Steenland resigned (for now) from the board (like Anderson did in 2003 during pilot contract negotiations -- the first time the Avros went away). Yet, despite all this dire news, all the big-time holders of MAIR stock are not unloading their shares! Whats up with that? If you were a common investor, would you not be unloading your shares of MAIR while you can or exercising your options? AH HA, thats the key there, these guys are not the common share holders. What do they know we do not? Follow the money, these guys are and have been, long term investors in MAIR.

If the Avros do go (and lets face it, they will sooner than later, but no one knows the REAL timeline yet), what do they know about the placement then of MAIR in Northwest's future that keeps them from selling? If Mr. Spanjers is musing Chapter 11 protection for Mesaba, why aren't these guys unloading their shares before MAIR plummets to $.67 like NWACq.pk and MAIR moves to the OTB exchange? What do they know?

 

[captpetefam]

Sing it Brotha!

JP Austin has it right. These guys think with their $. Look at Dougie; he started unloading his shares of NWA six months ago and did some SERIOUS selling last month. Jeez, he makes Martha Stuart look like small, crunchy cookies.

When these guys start selling off their shares in large quantities, then I'll get scared.

I also don't know how a BK Judge in his right mind would go along with them. I realize the good majority of them are in the back pocket of these companies but how can you overlook the fact that NWA EXTENDED the contract of the Avro's by EIGHT years just 3 weeks before the jump into BK. So, if these planes are so horrible to operate, why extend the contract just before BK!?!

 

[FN FAL]

I also don't know how a BK Judge in his right mind would go along with them. I realize the good majority of them are in the back pocket of these companies but how can you overlook the fact that NWA EXTENDED the contract of the Avro's by EIGHT years just 3 weeks before the jump into BK. So, if these planes are so horrible to operate, why extend the contract just before BK!?!

Simple, they put all 85 seats in them.

 

[sf3boy]

Yeah, I was more or less just venting on the fact that our company can't do anything on their own. Foley and Spanjers are told how MAIR will conduct its business, its not like they actually make business decisions for MAIR.

 

[JPAustin]

http://www.airlinemonitor.com/articles/8/part2/index.htm

I posted this before (right now the link is down, but it was up an hour ago so it should be back), but go to I believe pages 19-24 (on the left column) and compare CRJ900 (even 700) to the RJ85 (69 seats). Obviously the RJ85 is expensive as compared to them, however, look just at the hourly block costs of all of them versus the number of seats. I know, these are 2004 dollars, but it can be assumed that the cost increases due to fuel are shared across the board.

CRJ900 (total average) --
Hourly Block - $1768.70
Flight Crew Cost ASM - 0.64 cents
CASM - 6.7 cents
Cost per A/C mile - $5.20
Fuel cost per gallon - $1.21
AVERAGE SEATS PER A/C - 84.2
Total M/X hourly - 250.55

CRJ700 (total average) --
Hourly Block - $1425.69
Flight Crew Cost ASM - 1.3 cents
CASM - 6.26 cents
Cost per A/C mile - $4.34
Fuel cost per gallon - $1.28
AVERAGE SEATS PER A/C - 69.3
Total M/X hourly - $262.46

ARJ85 (total average) --
Hourly Block - $2001.73
Flight Crew Cost ASM - 1.35 cents
CASM - 10.53 cents
Fuel cost per gallon - $1.15
AVERAGE SEATS PER A/C - 69.0
Total M/X hourly cost - $460.83 (nearly twice as much for two more engines)

DC9 (all averaged) --
Hourly Block - $2897.26
CASM - 11.98 cents
Flight Crew Cost ASM - 3.46 cents
Fuel cost per gallon - $1.14
AVERAGE SEATS PER A/C - 104
Total M/X hourly cost - $479.84

NOW, using very simple math assumptions (I could be way off on this, but I'm trying atleast), 85 seats in the Avro is a 19 percent increase. So I decreased the CASM buy 19% and came up of with 8.53 cents. Yes, still higher than the CRJ900 and CRJ700, but that atleast buys a time stop gap until a suitable replacement and expansion of that seat capacity is possible. Plus, operating a single fleet with multiple hull sizes like Bombardier or Embraer offers increases an airlines strategic AND tactical flexibility for best matching route to capacity.

 

[captpetefam]

Jeez, you have way too much time on your hands JP. Good work though. Very informative. It's nice to see an actual report with factual numbers by a non-biased group.

 

[idoitupsidedown]

what is NWA's restructuring website? i found it on a post somewhere the other day and now can't find it.

 

[JPAustin]

Thanks Pete. I'm just trying to bring reality to a trying situation. Unfortunately, there are a lot of armchair managers on these boards and LOTS of rumors from "reliable" sources that are "in the know". I don't pretend to be an expert either, but when there are forces at work that are directly affecting my life, my way of dealing with the stress is looking for the facts and extracting from those facts reasonable theories as to what may or may not be going on. Rumors don't mean a thing until the plane pulls up to the gate or leaves the gate under tow of a banker-owned tug.

 

[JPAustin]

http://www.nwa-restructuring.com/CourtFiledDocuments/firstDayMotions.html

 

[T-handle]

If the company decides to furlough, perhaps all of the captains that just went through training or still in training, will bid a new aircraft to go back to as FO.

 

[avrodriverj85]

It doesnt make sense to me if NWA is in bankruptcy and is missing its payments to Mesaba, ($40 million, so far) then what financial support does XJ really have, then to follow right along with big brother into Chapter 11..

XJ doesnt have any other revenue streams set up, so the only way to make it lean is to cut costs. Cutting costs means asking for concessions, and bankruptcy protection seems to be the business way these days to those cuts..

Also if NWA actually does close its MEM hub, XJ could get out of it's cost of re-locating pilots (moving expenses) while under bankruptcy protection.

I wouldn't see that 15 CRJ's coming over to XJ from Pinnacle is a very positive move. I see another "carrot" and "threat of bankruptcy - if the pilots dont take cuts" - blah blah blah, from ALPA. I know that the history of mesaba pilots life is always waiting in the dark for "the upcoming announcement", but I think it's pretty clear XJ is dead in the water.

 

[Jimdandy]

Along with 85 seats added surely they should get a reduction in the lease pymts. this should help bring costs of the aircraft down. On the other hand...........

Figuring 200 dollars always more in maint. and approx. 250 dollars more in fuel cost means.......450 dollars more than crj900 per block hour.

450 x (10 hours per aircraft x 35 aircraft) x 30 days a month x 12 months a year= 56,700,000

I know my Math is very fuzzy but can lowering the lease pymts save 56 million dollars a year?

What about the saabs over time they can just farm that out to Colgan, great Lakes and or Skywest. Surely they can do it cheaper seeing as the average pilot is 1 year pay and the mgmt doesn't make 750,000 dollars a year plus living exspenses.

 

[Yudso]

Any speculation as to what tomorrows secret meeting is about. My money is on concessions.

 

[WMUSIGPI]

My guess is it goes something similar to this.
"we have a way to keep the avros for now.... we must be able to fly them with 85 seats, and get the lease payments cut. You must agree to fly the planes with these extra seats for a slightly reduced pay rate then agree to keep that rate for all future >100 seat flying that may come your way...oh by the way we also reserve the right to convert all your crj orders to 70 or 90 seats as we feel fit to replace the avros later on. We won't furlough anyone or hire anyone, just send home the extra pilots with pay as extra reserves til class dates open up for crj's. CVG will be closed and there will be no displacement bids allowed."

Am I close???

 

[T-handle]

Any speculation as to what tomorrows secret meeting is about. My money is on concessions.

'My money is on concessions'...... sounds ironic. :laugh:

Another last minute, no preview "special meeting" involving more "confidentiality agreements". That brings back a little deja vu.......