WSJ article - Airlines Fact Acute Shortage of Pilots (yes Kit Darby is in it)

[jetlag7]

Rounding up using data I had that included Comair.

Either way, 21,000 + mil + Part 135 people who meet the minimums = well more than 25,000 well-qualified pilots available to pull from.


You, sir, need a reasonable-suspicion drug test.

First off, NO ONE and I repeat NO ONE knows what the landscape will look like 25 years from now. That's a quarter of a CENTURY. That would be like taking a snapshot in 1987 and trying to tell people what the industry would look like today. You'd be laughed out of the room, and your argument is about as ludicrous here.

I'll make you a $10,000 bet right here and now that NO large regional carrier will shut down "due to lack of pilots" before I retire in 25 years. Pick your bookie in Vegas and let's do this, because you're simply barking up the wrong tree. Might one of the few that employ less than 1,000 pilots and can't afford to increase the starting wage to compete with other, more-established regionals? Possibly. But one of the big ones? Highly unlikely; not for staffing problems with pilots for certain.

It always VASTLY amuses me how many people buy into the big "shortage" theory. Hell, Kit Darby made MILLIONS off gullible pilots such as yourself. There's always one in every room... more when pilots are desperate for a way to grab their Golden Ticket. Looks like it's time to crank AIR, Inc back up...

Back on track, just looking at retirements by year and how many pilots are waiting to get out of their regional, how many are waiting to upgrade at that Regional, the rate of shrinkage in ASM's at the Major/Legacy carriers (that only continues), and the cyclical nature of our industry as it naturally expands and contracts with both retirements and the economy...

Sure, there WILL be a large increase in hiring starting towards the end of next year (been saying that for a couple years now), assuming we don't end up in a scrap with Iran or something else pops up that pushes us into a double-dip recession (very possible), but the hiring "boom" won't be long-lived; those hiring curves never, ever are. They hire right up to the point they furlough (2-3 years), and then people end up on furlough for 3-4 years before the curve picks up again.

Thus it has always been. Thus it will always be. The end.

Sure we have 600+ at 3 Legacies and FedEx and 200+ at two other Majors plus UPS yearly, but again, you're assuming that airlines will continue to stay exactly the way they are, not merge and consolidate routes, not shrink or change their business model, and if history has taught us anything, it's that these things are EXACTLY what happens, and year after year the struggle continues.

Will the "next generation" of pilots starting now have a faster career track than the "lost generation"? (Those who came into the market in the mid-90's and early 2000's). Sure. Will it be a "guaranteed fast-track" for them where they will walk into a Major airline job 4 or 5 years after they graduate High School?

No.

You simply can't predict more than 5-7 years out in this industry. You wait, we'll hit that "boom" at the end of 2013 / beginning of 2014, it'll run 3-4 years, then another shoe will drop and the "boom" will be over. Always happens.

All of you kids who have been in this game less than 10 years need to re-read and pay attention to what Lear 70 just posted... He's handing out some really useful information....

 

[N1atEcon]

Hell, Kit Darby made MILLIONS off gullible pilots such as yourself.

True DAT!!!

Whenever I see "pilot shortage" and Kit Darby in the same article I don't even bother reading any further. Talk about being biased. At least his pay per view seminars seem to be a thing of the past. He might as well of set up a Monavie booth there to have guys drink that instead of the KD
Kool aid.

 

[igneousy2]

I've been hearing about the coming pilot shortage the last 15 years i've been flying.

There will be no shortage of pilots. Period. There WILL be a perceived shortage of pilots at the regional level. There MAY be an actual shortage of pilots willing to fly for the current slave wages of the regionals.

I hope this is true, I hope we all of a sudden see regionals having to raise their wages because of this shortage...

However, maybe i've been in this business too long during the worst possible time to have been starting out as an airline pilot to hold out much hope. The airlines will whine via their Airlines for America group, we'll go to "fly till you die" for domestic flights, negating the need to wait for ICAO to act, we'll get MPL approved for international flights, the FAA will waive much of the rest/experience rules for the difference, and pilot pay/benefits will continue their hasty retreat...heaven forbid single pilot airplanes with on the ground emergency backup pilots...

I hope i'm wrong.

 

[labatt]

heaven forbid single pilot airplanes with on the ground emergency backup pilots...

I hope i'm wrong.

Decent odds we will see this in our lifetime.

 

[flyboyike]

People in the regionals now, in school now or gaining hours now will be in a good place in a few years.

I've been hearing some version of that since before my first solo in 1999. The only thing that actually HAS happened in that time frame was gummers getting a five-year gift. That's it.

 

[pilotyip]

You simply can't predict more than 5-7 years out in this industry. You wait, we'll hit that "boom" at the end of 2013 / beginning of 2014, it'll run 3-4 years, then another shoe will drop and the "boom" will be over. Always happens.

Bingo give that man a cigar. Everything about the future is a guess. Just like investing in the stock market, you make educated guesses, but you are not a 100% sure of what is going to happen. The same applies to the coming hiring boom. Getting hired at the beginning of a boom with lots of numbers under you is the surest way to a secure job in this business. That assumes the company stays in business. BTW It has has already started, the experience seen applying at the lower end of the chain is starting to thin out.

 

[Lear70]

Getting hired at the beginning of a boom with lots of numbers under you is the surest way to a secure job in this business. That assumes the company stays in business.

True statement, and as always, the key to a good flying career is timing and luck.

BTW It has has already started, the experience seen applying at the lower end of the chain is starting to thin out.

I don't attribute that to the beginning of the hiring boom, and that's a bad sign for the lower-end ad-hoc freight carriers, charter companies, etc.

We have NOT seen hiring pick up ANYWHERE yet, not in any real numbers to produce that thinning. Delta starts retiring large numbers next month but is going to wait until the end of next YEAR to hire so they can thin out their pilot numbers post-merger with NWA. AA hasn't hired, USAir is interviewing, CAL is talking about it, Hawaiian is taking a FEW, etc, etc. Hell, Comair just put a ton of experienced pilots on the street, certainly not a reason for the availability of good pilots at the lower levels to have thinned...

Where is the thinning coming from? Pretty simple: people are getting out of the aviation job market, or at least in the charter and ad-hoc segment of the industry. I've had 3 good friends, highly-experienced, do that very thing; they got tired of that kind of a lifestyle with no end in sight. One started his own insurance company, makes 3 times what he did as a pilot. One started his own photography company, makes what he did at a Major as a CA and is home almost every night, travels some too on HIS schedule of choice. One went overseas and is doing very well.

We almost always see the ad-hoc companies hurting towards the END of a hiring curve at the Majors; we don't usually see it before the hiring even STARTS. The YIP business model likely won't survive the changes coming down the pike; not without dramatically changing their business model in terms of cost, in order to pay for more employees to give more days off and higher pay. The good news? You'll ALL have to do that, which is good news both in terms of company viability (that freight still has to get moved, they'll just pass the cost onto the consumer at the end), and in terms of quality of career for you guys.

The Regionals will start stealing all the Charter and Ad-Hoc people when pilots see how fast the progression is going at the moment, which will then be the only places the sub-1500 hour pilots can go and earn those hours to fly for a 121 company which, again, is a very good thing. Maybe they'll learn some actual stick and rudder skills in hard IFR on non-automated (or nearly so) equipment before they come fly an airliner, which will make them a better pilot.

The whole thing sounds nice on paper - the industry correcting itself in terms of supply and demand. Just have to make sure the politicians don't f*** it up and throw a monkey wrench in the whole thing. Age 67 and a repeal of the 1500 hr minimum with some kind of MPL would do just that.

ALPA-PAC and CAPA-PAC, people...

 

[fam62c]

I've been hearing about the coming pilot shortage the last 15 years i've been flying.

There will be no shortage of pilots. Period. There WILL be a perceived shortage of pilots at the regional level. There MAY be an actual shortage of pilots willing to fly for the current slave wages of the regionals.

I hope this is true, I hope we all of a sudden see regionals having to raise their wages because of this shortage...

However, maybe i've been in this business too long during the worst possible time to have been starting out as an airline pilot to hold out much hope. The airlines will whine via their Airlines for America group, we'll go to "fly till you die" for domestic flights, negating the need to wait for ICAO to act, we'll get MPL approved for international flights, the FAA will waive much of the rest/experience rules for the difference, and pilot pay/benefits will continue their hasty retreat...heaven forbid single pilot airplanes with on the ground emergency backup pilots...

I hope i'm wrong.

I don't know about single pilot airplanes but there's no doubt that the industry will lobby hard for the other things you mention and the government will probably be very receptive if it will keep costs down for the consumer and prevent losses of air service to smaller communities. Nobody but us wants to see the supply demand equation work in our favor, especially the regional airlines who depend on a ready pool of low cost labor.

 

[Turtle21]

Lets assume there really is a pilot shortage... even maybe 50,000 pilots needed in two years.

China has 1.5 billion people and it takes less than two years to train someone from riding a bicycle to flying a 747.

There is nothing inherently unique about aviation that requires the labor force to be born and raised in the U.S. ... just like the production of steal or any other product that is no longer "made in America".

Wish I could see it differently but when there is a crisis to exploit it usually doesn't result in the rich becoming poorer.

 

[Lear70]

There is nothing inherently unique about aviation that requires the labor force to be born and raised in the U.S. ... just like the production of steal or any other product that is no longer "made in America".

Doesn't mean they'll be any good at it. In fact, most of the aviators over there suck. But you only have to train and automate to the lowest common denominator...

Wish I could see it differently but when there is a crisis to exploit it usually doesn't result in the rich becoming poorer.

Truest thing said all day.

 

[Turtle21]

Doesn't mean they'll be any good at it. In fact, most of the aviators over there suck. But you only have to train and automate to the lowest common denominator...

Let's go on a field trip to do a little experiment... over to our local Wal-Mart.... we will be able to get empirical evidence regarding the average consumer's concern about quality, professionalism, and service.

 

[PBRstreetgang]

Basic math
C172-$140.00 HR
Seneca-$200.00 HR
X 40 private
X 125 inst
X 250 comm
X 1500 ATP
Weak economy, 0 financing available, who in this economy has 10-20-60K in training costs for a job that starts out at $22.00 per flight hour? Rich Kids? Now there's a bonafide qualifier for entry into this field.
The regionals are quietly panicking, Eagle is offering a 5K signing bonus, when in the last 50 years has that happened. Most of you are Stockholm Syndrome victims, this industry is in serious trouble, and I for one am enjoying it!

 

[PBRstreetgang]

Lets assume there really is a pilot shortage... even maybe 50,000 pilots needed in two years.

China has 1.5 billion people and it takes less than two years to train someone from riding a bicycle to flying a 747.

There is nothing inherently unique about aviation that requires the labor force to be born and raised in the U.S. ... just like the production of steal or any other product that is no longer "made in America".

Wish I could see it differently but when there is a crisis to exploit it usually doesn't result in the rich becoming poorer.

1.2 billion of those people haven't operated anything more complex than a bicycle, ever. By your logic the NBA should be staffed by nothing but giant Chinese dudes, but it ain't. There is a reason there is an expat market for western pilots, and cheap isn't the qualifier.

 

[PBRstreetgang]

Let's go on a field trip to do a little experiment... over to our local Wal-Mart.... we will be able to get empirical evidence regarding the average consumer's concern about quality, professionalism, and service.

Lead paint on your kids toys is one thing a A380 slamming into the side of a mountain is another....

 

[jmreii]

1.2 billion of those people haven't operated anything more complex than a bicycle, ever. By your logic the NBA should be staffed by nothing but giant Chinese dudes, but it ain't. There is a reason there is an expat market for western pilots, and cheap isn't the qualifier.

People said the same thing about Japanese automakers! Now look at the Japanese automakers, I hope you are looking through your windshield because you are certainly behind them.

 

[Turtle21]

1.2 billion of those people haven't operated anything more complex than a bicycle, ever. By your logic the NBA should be staffed by nothing but giant Chinese dudes, but it ain't. There is a reason there is an expat market for western pilots, and cheap isn't the qualifier.

I would really like to believe that becoming a pilot is as difficult as becoming a forward for the Celtics, but truth be told becoming a pilot is not much more technically challenging than becoming a season ticket holder for the Celtics…

Lead paint on your kids toys is one thing a A380 slamming into the side of a mountain is another....

Arguing that the Chinese, or any other nationality for that matter, is incapable of manufacturing professional pilots above the standard of "lead paint on toys"… That is a faulty premise.

Millions of US jobs have been moved overseas in a myriad of industries across all levels of technology. The travel and transportation industry are ripe for replacing companies and crews with foreigners willing to provide the same product for less. Lets talk again in five years to review.

 

[livin'thesim]

I hope this does not lead to some stupid last-minute change to the retirement age.

The gummers have to go, they've already stolen enough food off of other pilots' plates.

 

[pilotyip]

I hope this does not lead to some stupid last-minute change to the retirement age.

The gummers have to go, they've already stolen enough food off of other pilots' plates.

pure "Get out of my seat"

 

[Talian]

to start with, but after this 21 year old has flown for two years, he will have over 1500 hours of ME TJ time, completing with the college grad with no ME TJ time. The 1500 rule will drive the hiring of the experienced non-college grad at every level. Too bad it not 1978 again


again only time will tell, but the 2012 hirng boom is underway

Screw the college degree. Always felt that it is useless. A college degree doesnt make one a better pilot.

 

[livin'thesim]

I case I was not clear enough, "get the h out of my seat".