WSJ article - Airlines Fact Acute Shortage of Pilots (yes Kit Darby is in it)

[fam62c]

The industry designed a model that's dependent on smaller airlines that offer pilots significantly lower wages and quality of life. In a slow moving industry many young people simply are not willing to invest the time and money required to become pilots....the return doesn't justify the investment.

There is plenty of demand for engineers, accountants, etc. who will start at higher wages, be off on weekends and holidays and not spend half their life on the road. The industry made the bed, now they get to lay down in it. I would expect huge lobbying efforts by the industry to lower the new experience requirements and remove any mandatory retirement age restriction. I hope they are unsuccessful; the laws of supply and demand have worked against us for may years, it's time for the tables to turn.

 

[Lear70]

to start with, but after this 21 year old has flown for two years, he will have over 1500 hours of ME TJ time, completing with the college grad with no ME TJ time. The 1500 rule will drive the hiring of the experienced non-college grad at every level. Too bad it not 1978 again


again only time will tell, but the 2012 hirng boom is underway

Again, you are just not in touch with reality.

There are over 25,000, that's TWENTY-FIVE THOUSAND pilots at the Regionals, 95% of which have been stuck there for 7-10 years, flying 800+ hours a year, and have accumulated over 5,000 hours total time at the very LEAST, most have more.

If you add up the TOTAL retirements over the next 10 years at the Legacies/Majors, you come up to around 20,000. Then the "boom" will taper off (and that doesn't even account for any economic issues which, historically, always limit hiring curves to 3-5 years).

So, in essence, people just getting started now will NEVER make it to a Major/Legacy carrier by 2020, simply by the simple FACT that there are not enough retirements for them to become competitive ahead of other pilots already at the Regionals.

You're simply not taking into account how many qualified Regional guys are waiting on Major/Legacy jobs. You're just not. It's really simple math.

 

[777forever]

Again, you are just not in touch with reality.

There are over 25,000, that's TWENTY-FIVE THOUSAND pilots at the Regionals, 95% of which have been stuck there for 7-10 years, flying 800+ hours a year, and have accumulated over 5,000 hours total time at the very LEAST, most have more.

If you add up the TOTAL retirements over the next 10 years at the Legacies/Majors, you come up to around 20,000. Then the "boom" will taper off (and that doesn't even account for any economic issues which, historically, always limit hiring curves to 3-5 years).

So, in essence, people just getting started now will NEVER make it to a Major/Legacy carrier by 2020, simply by the simple FACT that there are not enough retirements for them to become competitive ahead of other pilots already at the Regionals.

You're simply not taking into account how many qualified Regional guys are waiting on Major/Legacy jobs. You're just not. It's really simple math.

Where you getting your 25k number? Adding every regional on APC gave me 21,233. That's including Era, and Penair etc

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[777forever]

Again, you are just not in touch with reality.

There are over 25,000, that's TWENTY-FIVE THOUSAND pilots at the Regionals, 95% of which have been stuck there for 7-10 years, flying 800+ hours a year, and have accumulated over 5,000 hours total time at the very LEAST, most have more.

If you add up the TOTAL retirements over the next 10 years at the Legacies/Majors, you come up to around 20,000. Then the "boom" will taper off (and that doesn't even account for any economic issues which, historically, always limit hiring curves to 3-5 years).

So, in essence, people just getting started now will NEVER make it to a Major/Legacy carrier by 2020, simply by the simple FACT that there are not enough retirements for them to become competitive ahead of other pilots already at the Regionals.

You're simply not taking into account how many qualified Regional guys are waiting on Major/Legacy jobs. You're just not. It's really simple math.

I just did more research. Your math is badly off. The Boom does not taper off 10 years from now, more like 18 years from now in 2030. I suggest doing more thorough research before attempting to be a Debbie Downer

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[AceCrackshot]

Where you getting your 25k number? Adding every regional on APC gave me 21,233. That's including Era, and Penair etc

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There is easily another 5000 guys in the .mil, 135/91 community, guys on overseas contract, furloughs, and assorted other cats and dogs that likely end up to be another 25k. Its admittedly a hard number to quantify, but I think we can all agree there are plenty of mice chasing that chunk of cheese.

Honestly, I think this talk is designed to get pilots put on the H1B program.

 

[HA25]

Honestly, I think this talk is designed to get pilots put on the H1B program.

Exactly! This is nothing more than another attempt to flood the labor market.... I know of soooo many out of work EU licensed pilots that would jump on US jobs today if they could... And don't kid yourselves, many of these are very experienced pilots!

 

[scoreboardII]

Not for Major U.S. airlines... EVERY Major/Legacy CBA has a restriction against pilots flying company planes and not being on the seniority list.

I'm more concerned about the relaxation in cabotage, that is, allowing point-to-point flying inside the CONUS by foreign airlines. We give that one up and we're screwed. Trans-con flights connecting to Int'l flights and the bread and butter of our airlines is GONE.

That's been under attack for a long, long time. We all need to contribute to your PAC (ALPA-PAC or CAPA-PAC) in anticipation for the upcoming battle as retirements eclipse pilot availability at the Regionals to make sure the eventual Congressional and Senatorial hearings on the issue VERY CLEARLY point out that it's not, and never will be, a shortage at the Major level, but rather the minimum-wage paying Regional jobs and that the majority of feed amongst our larger cities will go on as-scheduled and without impact.

There's just not going to be a shortage at our level but yes, I expect things to get really, really tight at the Regionals starting around 2018-2020. Assuming the world doesn't end in 31 days.

Lear, they will be on the seniority list, they will be company employee's. You won't see the adds in US publications. It will be targeted at the foreign pilot. Now how many US folks are willing to move overseas and live in domicile? Not as many as you think, guys here commute because they don't want to move to domicile, you think a significant number will commute internationally? I know two at SWA, thats it.

I mention this as SJC could be a SWA international domicile. SJU might be close enough to commute, but think of all those South American pilots training right now who would jump at flying for SWA, speak the language of the Southland, and get to live fairly close to their homes. There won't be a job fair in LAX, it will be in Brazil.

 

[jmreii]

Ding ding! This shortage is no surprise and we can all see it coming. My paranoia says that this is a perfect storm created by the airlines/government to allow for foreign ownership and cabotage changes.

I also believe cabotage would not be out of the question considering many countries in Europe and Asia spend much more time developing pilots and other occupations whereas the US only look for quick fixes as if they're the flavor of the month.

 

[spudskier]

I'm not getting into how I got there but the math is simple...

in the next 25 years there will be 45,000 retirements at the major carriers.
Currently there are approximately 22,000 regional pilots. Sure, add in another 5000 from the military and more from overseas waiting to come back... you still have 15,000 vacancies BEFORE REST RULES come into effect, BEFORE expansion. Also take at LEAST 20%-30% of those 22,000 at the regionals that will not be moving on due to longevity/age/medical, etc...

I don't know where lear70 is getting his numbers from, but these are direct from APC. There are mass retirements coming, there will be jobs to be had. I've said it once and I'll say it again, one or more regionals WILL shut down due to lack of pilots.

Until recently is was a horrible idea to become a pilot, spend $100k or more (soon to be much more with the 1500hr requirement) and then get paid $22/hr at a regional. People in the regionals now, in school now or gaining hours now will be in a good place in a few years.

 

[atpcliff]

How is the average athiest like the average "no pilot shortage" pilot?
They are both believers. Nothing u can say or show them will change their beliefs.
cliff
JFK