WSJ article - Airlines Fact Acute Shortage of Pilots (yes Kit Darby is in it)

[Citjok]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...9391643223634.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

IMO somebody is trying to justify a change to age 67, and is using the WSJ.

 

[imacdog]

I'm not getting into how I got there but the math is simple...

in the next 25 years there will be 45,000 retirements at the major carriers.
Currently there are approximately 22,000 regional pilots. Sure, add in another 5000 from the military and more from overseas waiting to come back... you still have 15,000 vacancies BEFORE REST RULES come into effect, BEFORE expansion. Also take at LEAST 20%-30% of those 22,000 at the regionals that will not be moving on due to longevity/age/medical, etc...

I don't know where lear70 is getting his numbers from, but these are direct from APC. There are mass retirements coming, there will be jobs to be had. I've said it once and I'll say it again, one or more regionals WILL shut down due to lack of pilots.

Until recently is was a horrible idea to become a pilot, spend $100k or more (soon to be much more with the 1500hr requirement) and then get paid $22/hr at a regional. People in the regionals now, in school now or gaining hours now will be in a good place in a few years.

You don't think over the next 25 years that a person or two might decide to become a professional pilot?

 

[Lear70]

Where you getting your 25k number? Adding every regional on APC gave me 21,233. That's including Era, and Penair etc

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2

Rounding up using data I had that included Comair.

Either way, 21,000 + mil + Part 135 people who meet the minimums = well more than 25,000 well-qualified pilots available to pull from.

I'm not getting into how I got there but the math is simple...

in the next 25 years there will be 45,000 retirements at the major carriers.
Currently there are approximately 22,000 regional pilots. Sure, add in another 5000 from the military and more from overseas waiting to come back... you still have 15,000 vacancies BEFORE REST RULES come into effect, BEFORE expansion. Also take at LEAST 20%-30% of those 22,000 at the regionals that will not be moving on due to longevity/age/medical, etc...

I don't know where lear70 is getting his numbers from, but these are direct from APC. There are mass retirements coming, there will be jobs to be had. I've said it once and I'll say it again, one or more regionals WILL shut down due to lack of pilots.

Until recently is was a horrible idea to become a pilot, spend $100k or more (soon to be much more with the 1500hr requirement) and then get paid $22/hr at a regional. People in the regionals now, in school now or gaining hours now will be in a good place in a few years.

You, sir, need a reasonable-suspicion drug test.

First off, NO ONE and I repeat NO ONE knows what the landscape will look like 25 years from now. That's a quarter of a CENTURY. That would be like taking a snapshot in 1987 and trying to tell people what the industry would look like today. You'd be laughed out of the room, and your argument is about as ludicrous here.

I'll make you a $10,000 bet right here and now that NO large regional carrier will shut down "due to lack of pilots" before I retire in 25 years. Pick your bookie in Vegas and let's do this, because you're simply barking up the wrong tree. Might one of the few that employ less than 1,000 pilots and can't afford to increase the starting wage to compete with other, more-established regionals? Possibly. But one of the big ones? Highly unlikely; not for staffing problems with pilots for certain.

It always VASTLY amuses me how many people buy into the big "shortage" theory. Hell, Kit Darby made MILLIONS off gullible pilots such as yourself. There's always one in every room... more when pilots are desperate for a way to grab their Golden Ticket. Looks like it's time to crank AIR, Inc back up...

Back on track, just looking at retirements by year and how many pilots are waiting to get out of their regional, how many are waiting to upgrade at that Regional, the rate of shrinkage in ASM's at the Major/Legacy carriers (that only continues), and the cyclical nature of our industry as it naturally expands and contracts with both retirements and the economy...

Sure, there WILL be a large increase in hiring starting towards the end of next year (been saying that for a couple years now), assuming we don't end up in a scrap with Iran or something else pops up that pushes us into a double-dip recession (very possible), but the hiring "boom" won't be long-lived; those hiring curves never, ever are. They hire right up to the point they furlough (2-3 years), and then people end up on furlough for 3-4 years before the curve picks up again.

Thus it has always been. Thus it will always be. The end.

Sure we have 600+ at 3 Legacies and FedEx and 200+ at two other Majors plus UPS yearly, but again, you're assuming that airlines will continue to stay exactly the way they are, not merge and consolidate routes, not shrink or change their business model, and if history has taught us anything, it's that these things are EXACTLY what happens, and year after year the struggle continues.

Will the "next generation" of pilots starting now have a faster career track than the "lost generation"? (Those who came into the market in the mid-90's and early 2000's). Sure. Will it be a "guaranteed fast-track" for them where they will walk into a Major airline job 4 or 5 years after they graduate High School?

No.

You simply can't predict more than 5-7 years out in this industry. You wait, we'll hit that "boom" at the end of 2013 / beginning of 2014, it'll run 3-4 years, then another shoe will drop and the "boom" will be over. Always happens.

 

[Lear70]

Lear, they will be on the seniority list, they will be company employee's. You won't see the adds in US publications. It will be targeted at the foreign pilot. Now how many US folks are willing to move overseas and live in domicile? Not as many as you think, guys here commute because they don't want to move to domicile, you think a significant number will commute internationally? I know two at SWA, thats it.

So what you're saying is that SWA opens a RBR domicile to the Southwest pilot group, it goes junior, SWA opens hiring and hires only Foreigners?

First, they can't do that, they're a U.S.-held company and per the EEOC guidelines they have to make the jobs open to U.S. citizens. I guarantee you there's enough U.S. pilots who would jump on the bandwagon just to get on with SWA, take the international commute until they're senior enough to get state-side, and RBR would end up just a junior domicile.

Same thing with an EU domicile. You'd get a large number of people who would do it.

However, with both of those scenarios you run into another problem: most foreign Cabotage laws don't allow U.S. citizens to be based in / live in those foreign countries. Not to mention those same cabotage laws prevent a foreign carrier from operating point-to-point inside that country, so are you saying SWA would just want to operate the RBR-U.S. destination markets with those foreign pilots?

In that case, you'd have SWA wanting to run an international base with seniority-list pilots that your/our own pilots could never bid into...??? And you think SWAPA would be OK with that? Because as far as I know, the base bidding process with the current CBA says that ANY base opening has to be open to the entire seniority list, and it would seem a violation of the CBA to have a base that violated that basic premise?

I don't disagree with you that it MIGHT be something they would try, but to be honest, the foreign pilot market is getting even tighter than the U.S. market. Foreign contracts are up in compensation and time off because they can't FIND foreign pilots qualified for the jobs. I can't imagine SWA would be immune to that problem.

I mention this as SJC could be a SWA international domicile. SJU might be close enough to commute, but think of all those South American pilots training right now who would jump at flying for SWA, speak the language of the Southland, and get to live fairly close to their homes. There won't be a job fair in LAX, it will be in Brazil.

Again, same basic thing. You open a SJU base and there's plenty of people here in the U.S. who would bid it and EEOC guidelines require them to open it to the entire continental U.S., not to mention the FAA and U.S. Green Card requirements for foreign nationals working for a U.S. based company.

What you're talking about is almost a SWA Express kind of thing, which the CBA specifically prohibits. Might be worth finishing closing that language to prevent it, but I don't see it as the bigger problem. Not right now at any rate...

 

[NoJoy]

Kit Darby, Roger Cohen, Dan Garton, Scott F'ing Foose, Dave Barger, I'd be ashamed to be associated with the likes of those A-holes quoted in this article.

That said, I sincerely hope there is at least ONE actual pilot shortage during my 40-year (potential) career - just to see what happens. Either the abysmal pay at the regionals gets increased, or the above listed jagoffs manage to force the adoption of a MPL license in the US. Either way, I hope I'm above the fray.

Good ol Kit was spouting off in one of his Jet-Career job fairs 5 years ago that raising the age retirement to 65 would have negligible affects on future airline hiring too. Right.

 

[Lear70]

Good ol Kit was spouting off in one of his Jet-Career job fairs 5 years ago that raising the age retirement to 65 would have negligible affects on future airline hiring too. Right.

LOL - funny...

I have to admit, I asked the guy for his advice a couple times over my career (company shutting down, stay or bail, etc) and his advice worked out well for me, but on a larger scale, let's face it, Kit was in it for Kit.

Selling Hope was his business. Oh wait, that sounds like...

 

[NoJoy]

Kit did come across as a car salesman from time to time.
But I have to admit that I did get three different interviews from his job fairs over a 7 year period. It's all good.

 

[scoreboardII]

Lear I think you think I said deny US pilots from applying, no, just the opposite. But when you only advertise for jobs in the local newspapers of foreign countries in their language, you get my point on who will be the preponderance of applications: foreigners.

Green card is a red Herring, anyone can get that if the company sponsors same. Foreign domicile, same thing, if only the nationals of the company live in that foreign domicile, cabbatage is NA, it's when foreigners live in the foreign domicile that matter. Just like pilots learn to adapt and overcome the scheduling system, companies adapt and overcome the rules and laws.

I don't imply that SWA would make a SWA express, but look to Branson and Virgin and Virgin America. You could do that and still have SWAPA as the union of a "foreign" owned airline. Or not. That and Carlo's Slim bailed from Volaris, he didn't do that because he was stupid, maybe just setting himself up to be ready for the next step in the process, a South American SWA.

Am I worried about these possibilities? Nope, any will result in more RASM's for SWA. Heck, I'm more worried we don't do it and do it faster.

 

[jetwash]

Just look up at what is going on in Canada with Sunwing bringing in Eastern European pilots to fly Canadians down to Florida.

The pilots up there are up in arms but the airline knew the right lobbyists to get the government to approve it.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/art...tjet-denounce-sunwing-s-use-of-foreign-pilots

 

[fam62c]

There has to be some percentage of regional pilots who are senior, older and are making enough money and have good enough quality of life that they don't want to start at the bottom of a seniority list. I don't know how many of them there are but I wouldn't assume that every regional pilot is going to leave and start over....many for sure but not all. Not all the pilots at the regional airlines, especially the larger ones are young folks anymore.

 

[jetlag7]

Rounding up using data I had that included Comair.

Either way, 21,000 + mil + Part 135 people who meet the minimums = well more than 25,000 well-qualified pilots available to pull from.


You, sir, need a reasonable-suspicion drug test.

First off, NO ONE and I repeat NO ONE knows what the landscape will look like 25 years from now. That's a quarter of a CENTURY. That would be like taking a snapshot in 1987 and trying to tell people what the industry would look like today. You'd be laughed out of the room, and your argument is about as ludicrous here.

I'll make you a $10,000 bet right here and now that NO large regional carrier will shut down "due to lack of pilots" before I retire in 25 years. Pick your bookie in Vegas and let's do this, because you're simply barking up the wrong tree. Might one of the few that employ less than 1,000 pilots and can't afford to increase the starting wage to compete with other, more-established regionals? Possibly. But one of the big ones? Highly unlikely; not for staffing problems with pilots for certain.

It always VASTLY amuses me how many people buy into the big "shortage" theory. Hell, Kit Darby made MILLIONS off gullible pilots such as yourself. There's always one in every room... more when pilots are desperate for a way to grab their Golden Ticket. Looks like it's time to crank AIR, Inc back up...

Back on track, just looking at retirements by year and how many pilots are waiting to get out of their regional, how many are waiting to upgrade at that Regional, the rate of shrinkage in ASM's at the Major/Legacy carriers (that only continues), and the cyclical nature of our industry as it naturally expands and contracts with both retirements and the economy...

Sure, there WILL be a large increase in hiring starting towards the end of next year (been saying that for a couple years now), assuming we don't end up in a scrap with Iran or something else pops up that pushes us into a double-dip recession (very possible), but the hiring "boom" won't be long-lived; those hiring curves never, ever are. They hire right up to the point they furlough (2-3 years), and then people end up on furlough for 3-4 years before the curve picks up again.

Thus it has always been. Thus it will always be. The end.

Sure we have 600+ at 3 Legacies and FedEx and 200+ at two other Majors plus UPS yearly, but again, you're assuming that airlines will continue to stay exactly the way they are, not merge and consolidate routes, not shrink or change their business model, and if history has taught us anything, it's that these things are EXACTLY what happens, and year after year the struggle continues.

Will the "next generation" of pilots starting now have a faster career track than the "lost generation"? (Those who came into the market in the mid-90's and early 2000's). Sure. Will it be a "guaranteed fast-track" for them where they will walk into a Major airline job 4 or 5 years after they graduate High School?

No.

You simply can't predict more than 5-7 years out in this industry. You wait, we'll hit that "boom" at the end of 2013 / beginning of 2014, it'll run 3-4 years, then another shoe will drop and the "boom" will be over. Always happens.

All of you kids who have been in this game less than 10 years need to re-read and pay attention to what Lear 70 just posted... He's handing out some really useful information....

 

[N1atEcon]

Hell, Kit Darby made MILLIONS off gullible pilots such as yourself.

True DAT!!!

Whenever I see "pilot shortage" and Kit Darby in the same article I don't even bother reading any further. Talk about being biased. At least his pay per view seminars seem to be a thing of the past. He might as well of set up a Monavie booth there to have guys drink that instead of the KD
Kool aid.

 

[igneousy2]

I've been hearing about the coming pilot shortage the last 15 years i've been flying.

There will be no shortage of pilots. Period. There WILL be a perceived shortage of pilots at the regional level. There MAY be an actual shortage of pilots willing to fly for the current slave wages of the regionals.

I hope this is true, I hope we all of a sudden see regionals having to raise their wages because of this shortage...

However, maybe i've been in this business too long during the worst possible time to have been starting out as an airline pilot to hold out much hope. The airlines will whine via their Airlines for America group, we'll go to "fly till you die" for domestic flights, negating the need to wait for ICAO to act, we'll get MPL approved for international flights, the FAA will waive much of the rest/experience rules for the difference, and pilot pay/benefits will continue their hasty retreat...heaven forbid single pilot airplanes with on the ground emergency backup pilots...

I hope i'm wrong.

 

[labatt]

heaven forbid single pilot airplanes with on the ground emergency backup pilots...

I hope i'm wrong.

Decent odds we will see this in our lifetime.

 

[flyboyike]

People in the regionals now, in school now or gaining hours now will be in a good place in a few years.

I've been hearing some version of that since before my first solo in 1999. The only thing that actually HAS happened in that time frame was gummers getting a five-year gift. That's it.