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Will Republic Survive?

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For those who have not looked at the MKE route structure recently you should before you say SWA or Airtran is going to run RAH out. Last time I checked (yesterday) SWA competes with RAH on 2 routes out of MKE. Not exactly a game changer.

Airtran competes on quite a few more, but they are also competeing heavily with Delta on the ATL markets. I also don't think the Airtran guys want to talk about how they have outsourced there flying on many competeing routes to SkyWest. Sore subject I know.

Everyone hates RAH. I get that. Does anyone really blame anyone other than Management though. Every pilot goes to work and tries to make it in this F'd up industry just like the next guy while management messes with all our lives.
 
Airtran competes on quite a few more, but they are also competeing heavily with Delta on the ATL markets. I also don't think the Airtran guys want to talk about how they have outsourced there flying on many competeing routes to SkyWest. Sore subject I know.
Airtran is growing in MKE without adding new airplanes to the fleet by moving some of the ATL airplanes up to MKE. While Airtran has held their own in ATL against Delta over the last 10 years, Fornaro obviously feels there are more profits to be had in MKE over the long run than trying to grow more in Delta's main hub as evidenced by the airplane shift.

Skywest is actually using their own money in helping Airtran compete with Republic. Airtran is paying Skywest nothing to fly the CRJs to 6 cities. Some of these cities weren't served by Airtran previously from MKE (OMA, DSM, and CAK). The other cities had 1 or 2 flights a day, hardly enough frequency to really attract business customers. If customers ride strictly on Skywest, Skywest gets the money. If the customer rides on Skywest and Airtran, the revenue is split between the two companies. Skywest is paying for all their fuel and Skywest is going to eat all the start up costs of the new routes. This gives Airtran a no risk way to grow MKE and frees up airplanes to start service like DFW-MKE and to other cities Airtran has announced recently. So Republic has to compete with the combined resources of Airtran, Southwest, and Skywest in MKE. Not an easy task.

Everyone hates RAH. I get that. Does anyone really blame anyone other than Management though. Every pilot goes to work and tries to make it in this F'd up industry just like the next guy while management messes with all our lives.
I don't hate Republic. I used to fly for Shuttle when they had Saabs and still have friends there. I don't blame Bedford for buying Midwest or Frontier at firesale prices. If you want to put blame somewhere, I say point it at Frontier management for running their airline into bankruptcy or at Midwest management for running their airline into the ground. Bedford has taken Republic in an interesting direction. It will be interesting to see if they become the next Indepedence Air or find a way to become the next major airline (using the $1 Billion/yr in branded revenue metric).
 
AA's contract does not allow anyone other than eagle to operate any jet with more than 50 seats. CHQ was paying AA a fine of several hundred thousand dollars per month when the Yonited 170's first arrived, hence the abrupt purchase of S5 to get around that contract violation.

And that is why contracts are not FOREVER! Contracts end, and re-negotiated all the time. AA contract may not allow this now, but you can bet your a$$ that little clause can disappear in a blink of an eye. :(
 
I don't think tran will get mke. I think ultimately, swa will get mke. You may as well say rah is out, but to me, tran doesn't really have a place in this picture either. Swa may just let tran spend all the $$ to eliminate rah from mke, then they (swa) will pounce on tran. I could be wrong, after all its just speculation. Its just my view on the way things may play out.


SWA has two gates in MKE. RAH released all the gates around them. There is nowhere for them to expand. if they increase service, they increase their gate waits. PAX really hate that.
 

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