Will Republic Survive?

[DOVPILOT]

Don't fool yourself. I could see a Dallas based company allowing Republic to fly 100 seat jets for them.

Keep on dreaming, AA will never allow that to happen!!!

 

[airludy]

I dont think Bedford knows what he is doing. I think he is over his head on this one. Just a few months ago he is on the MKE evening news talking about how he was going to expand the Midwest brand. Well, guess what? Now he is talking of dropping the name all together. So is he a liar or just clueless?
Running a cutthroat regional airline is not the same as running your own airline. You need a better business model than paying the lowest wages to your employees. Employees build the company.

 

[BoilerUP]

So is he a liar or just clueless?

Nothing Brian Bedford has done in his entire time at Chautauqua/Republic gives one cause to think he's "clueless".

Nothing.

He's grown CHQ from Saabs and a few E145s into a regional airline powerhouse. He's always been at least one step ahead of labor, with lots of gray areas in the pilot contract and strong contractual language in the lift agreements protecting RAH's financial interests

That having been said, "past results are not indicative of future performance"....but I still think Republic is going to be just fine going forward. They've got guaranteed revenue from their fee-for-departure agreements for the better part of this decade to help subsidize their branded airline (regardless of the name they use), the ability to cherry-pick the most capable management talent from Frontier and Midwest that "knows how to run an airline" (an oft-used excuse why they'll fail), and they're getting in early (again) on another possible game-changing airframe (again).

If SWA couldn't kill US Airways nearly a decade ago, and Delta couldn't crush AirTran, I wouldn't be terribly concerned about anybody putting Republic out of business.

 

[FLYLOW22]

Then why hasn't SWA forced "Tran" out of BWI, MCO, FLL, TPA, MDW, ETC?

Forced? Hell, I thought they had tugs they used for pushback.

 

[Red Baron]

If that is true, SWA will never force Airtran out of anywhere as Airtran's CASM is about 10% lower than Southwest's.

And I hope you all get the pay raise you deserve in the future, even if it means that your CASM may increase.

Concerning Republic, who knows. They do have heavy competition in MKE and DEN as a stand alone. It should be interesting.

 

[rider850]

Republic

(*^(&^((^

 

[chqflyer]

Do you have a copy of the current contract. I know you don't or you wouldn't be making that statement.

AA's contract does not allow anyone other than eagle to operate any jet with more than 50 seats. CHQ was paying AA a fine of several hundred thousand dollars per month when the Yonited 170's first arrived, hence the abrupt purchase of S5 to get around that contract violation.

 

[maxblast72]

And I hope you all get the pay raise you deserve in the future, even if it means that your CASM may increase.

Pilots are only responsible for approximately 10% of Airtran's total CASM (and all Airtran labor groups combined represent approximately 20% of Airtran's total CASM). Even if Airtran pilots get a significant raise in 2010, Airtran's CASM will still be lower than Southwest's.

The rest of Airtran's labor groups are very unorganized and will continue to accept below industry average. My wife is a FA for Airtran and tells me how little most FAs pay attention to what is going on (she is guilty too). Customer service agents and rampers continue to vote down representation every other year. I guess that is good for Airtran pilots. More money left on the table for pilots when other employee groups continue to leave money on the table.

 

[dojetdriver]

AA's contract does not allow anyone other than eagle to operate any jet with more than 50 seats. CHQ was paying AA a fine of several hundred thousand dollars per month when the Yonited 170's first arrived, hence the abrupt purchase of S5 to get around that contract violation.

You think Yo-nited would have learned with the ACA/ACJet operating certificate issue that came about in 1999-2000.

 

[Wesb737fo]

I couldn't give a carp less if they survive or not.

 

[BushTheIdiot]

The upper brass COULD CARE LESS who flies their domestic (and eventually international) routes.

Or COULDN'T CARE LESS, even.

 

[BoilerUP]

I couldn't give a carp less if they survive or not.

What about a catfish, or a tasty seabass?

 

[$$$4nothin]

For those who have not looked at the MKE route structure recently you should before you say SWA or Airtran is going to run RAH out. Last time I checked (yesterday) SWA competes with RAH on 2 routes out of MKE. Not exactly a game changer.

Airtran competes on quite a few more, but they are also competeing heavily with Delta on the ATL markets. I also don't think the Airtran guys want to talk about how they have outsourced there flying on many competeing routes to SkyWest. Sore subject I know.

Everyone hates RAH. I get that. Does anyone really blame anyone other than Management though. Every pilot goes to work and tries to make it in this F'd up industry just like the next guy while management messes with all our lives.

 

[GuppyWN]

The real battle is going to continue in Denver.

Gup

 

[maxblast72]

Airtran competes on quite a few more, but they are also competeing heavily with Delta on the ATL markets. I also don't think the Airtran guys want to talk about how they have outsourced there flying on many competeing routes to SkyWest. Sore subject I know.

Airtran is growing in MKE without adding new airplanes to the fleet by moving some of the ATL airplanes up to MKE. While Airtran has held their own in ATL against Delta over the last 10 years, Fornaro obviously feels there are more profits to be had in MKE over the long run than trying to grow more in Delta's main hub as evidenced by the airplane shift.

Skywest is actually using their own money in helping Airtran compete with Republic. Airtran is paying Skywest nothing to fly the CRJs to 6 cities. Some of these cities weren't served by Airtran previously from MKE (OMA, DSM, and CAK). The other cities had 1 or 2 flights a day, hardly enough frequency to really attract business customers. If customers ride strictly on Skywest, Skywest gets the money. If the customer rides on Skywest and Airtran, the revenue is split between the two companies. Skywest is paying for all their fuel and Skywest is going to eat all the start up costs of the new routes. This gives Airtran a no risk way to grow MKE and frees up airplanes to start service like DFW-MKE and to other cities Airtran has announced recently. So Republic has to compete with the combined resources of Airtran, Southwest, and Skywest in MKE. Not an easy task.

Everyone hates RAH. I get that. Does anyone really blame anyone other than Management though. Every pilot goes to work and tries to make it in this F'd up industry just like the next guy while management messes with all our lives.

I don't hate Republic. I used to fly for Shuttle when they had Saabs and still have friends there. I don't blame Bedford for buying Midwest or Frontier at firesale prices. If you want to put blame somewhere, I say point it at Frontier management for running their airline into bankruptcy or at Midwest management for running their airline into the ground. Bedford has taken Republic in an interesting direction. It will be interesting to see if they become the next Indepedence Air or find a way to become the next major airline (using the $1 Billion/yr in branded revenue metric).