Why there's a good chance of a future pilot shortage

[BOOZENEWS]

Seems as though every month or so, someone starts a thread either here or at the Majors section about talk of a future pilot shortage with age 65 guys retiring in Dec 2012 combined with the economy recovering around that time. Others throw in the fact that there are far fewer student pilots who are willing to invest the time and money in obtaining they're certificates and ratings to become airline pilots as there were as recently as 10 yrs ago due to there being no pot of gold at the Majors as there once was.


I wanted to give you my 2 cents on why I think there will be far fewer students wanting to become airline pilot. This is my personal observation only and isn't any means gospel!

I am a just a private pilot, 400 hrs, 28 yrs old and fly a desk for a living and make decent money, but am by no means rich. I fly primarily on the weekends and enjoy it very much (of course!).

In my early to mid 20's when the airline industry was slowly recovering, I was eager to fly for the airlines via the normal CFI-Regional-Major pipeline. I was aware (from being on FI so much) of the pitfalls of the industry that ERAU/GIA/UND don't tell you.

Back in 2005 or so, I believed that sometime between 2008-10 that the industry would really be shining and that I'd go through with the rest of my cert and ratings and get on with a regional. I based this decision back then on the industry recovering in the 08-10 timeframe.

Of course this DIDN'T happen! Since 2008 or so, I decided it is highly unlikely I will peruse an airline career. I might get my CFI for a side job on the weekends or do a bit of contract flying in a light jet someday, but the chances of me quitting my 9 to 5 and going to a regional are practically nil barring some unforeseen miracle!

Why is this important??

Because SURELY, I'm NOT the only low time pilot who once was EAGER to fly for the airlines recently, but NOW am NOT going to do it due to things being even worse now that they were 5 yrs ago in the industry.

If there are a lot of other low time pilots who were once on the fence like I once was but who now are walking away, surely this will favorably affect the supply side of the equation and give existing pilot more leverage (not now, but certainly 10 yrs or more from now) at the negotiation table.

Again maybe not quickly but surely downstream this WILL EVENTUALLY catch up and give pilots at the regionals (and later the majors) a nice tailwind when it comes to pay and workrules.

Your thoughts?

 

[LearLove]

If you are in your "early to mid 20's" why don't you try the Guard/Reserves? Get a UPT slot and after training go back to your day job and fly as a traditional guard guy. You get to serve, some extra cash and still go home at night to see the wife and kids.

I would say you have made the right move. If I could do it over, I'd do the ANG and get a 9 to 5 job in my degree field (engineering). Maybe split a cub with a friend.

Where do you live?

 

[pilotyip]

all part of the 2012 pilot hiring boom

 

[sayrejm]

the boom that will happen right after the world ends...

I am instructing 12 hour days and enrollment at the college our school contracts for is up 16% this year. One of my students told me he is getting his ratings because he wants to make more money than he makes now..... yea, it's like i am facing a moral dilemma...

 

[Twisted Mind]

Like it or not pilotyip called the last hiring boom nearly dead on.

 

[samuraiguytn]

I find it funny (he he) how much I am fighting to stay with this career. I kinda feel that while even though I am furloughed, I put way to much into this, to just give up. Not to mention I actually enjoyed it. But as far as when its going to happen. I hope sooner then later. I don't wanna be running around during Armagedon saying "well on the bright side, I got called back."

 

[Flyin Tony]

all hail pilotyip

 

[Flex-ible]

I agree with much of what you say - although I doubt the ERAU and UND guys appreciate being lumped in with GIA......

A couple of notes:
- there will not be a sudden mass of retirements beginning in 2012, just a resumption of the slow trickle of the past.
- it is entirely likely that by 2012 all 121 operators will be required to hire only ATP's. This will dramatically increase the cost of reaching the cockpit of a regional, resulting in a shortage of FO's there and a massive surplus of flight instructors and 135 pilots. Logical result would be lower pay for 135 and higher pay for 121.
- as far as the Guard goes, you must remember there is a war on. New lieutenants are low-hanging fruit, and can expect to increase their experience level in Afghanistan.

 

[surveypilot]

- it is entirely likely that by 2012 all 121 operators will be required to hire only ATP's. This will dramatically increase the cost of reaching the cockpit of a regional, resulting in a shortage of FO's there and a massive surplus of flight instructors and 135 pilots. Logical result would be lower pay for 135 and higher pay for 121.

Although this may be true for the bottom feeder 135 operators, I can tell you that having only ATP minimums would not even get your resume into the short stack at my company. We fly only piston twins and we have never hired anyone with less than 3500 hours and most of our guys have had 15,000 hours plus.

 

[CX880]

the boom that will happen right after the world ends...

I am instructing 12 hour days and enrollment at the college our school contracts for is up 16% this year. One of my students told me he is getting his ratings because he wants to make more money than he makes now..... yea, it's like i am facing a moral dilemma...

someone's going to have to swing my gear. train him or she well.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

The number of student pilot starts, and ATPs awarded has been going down, year by year, for about 10 years in the US. This will be a MAJOR factor when Age 65 kicks in, and also If/when the ATP requirement comes into play. Many overseas airlines are already on the uptick, and they will be sucking up more and more American pilots, as they drastically expand (China and India, especially).

And, for the -135 types, if the ATP thing goes, there will be WAY less ATPs going -135, as all the -121 regionals (and even the less desirable larger airlines) will be forced to raise their conditions to fight over the limited number of ATPs. They may even start hiring low-time guys and paying for their training until they get their ATPs if they get desperate enough.

Military: They are getting MORE and MORE RPVs (Remotely Piloted Vehicles), so if you go mil, you may never see a manned aircraft cockpit.

cliff
NBO

 

[pilotyip]

Cliff gets it.

Hi!

The number of student pilot starts, and ATPs awarded has been going down, year by year, for about 10 years in the US. This will be a MAJOR factor when Age 65 kicks in, and also If/when the ATP requirement comes into play. Many overseas airlines are already on the uptick, and they will be sucking up more and more American pilots, as they drastically expand (China and India, especially).
NBO

Those who hang in right now or start right now are going to at the front of the line when when the 2012 hiring boom kicks into gear.

 

[i fly boxes]

its funny that the pilot hiring boom falls the same year as the end of the mayan calender (2012) maybe the old geezers that refused to retire knew something, hahaha

 

[CFI2766]

To each his own, but if I were still under 30 and had the option to do so, I would pursue a Guard/Reserve UPT slot. In fact, I would give my right arm, (to be taken when I am 65) to go back in time and right some wrongs in my life and really pursue the military route.

 

[Quack]

Do you guys seriously think that as soon as 2012 rolls around the flood gates are going to open and all of sudden the airlines are going to be soooo short they are going to pay us 1995 wages, and start hiring people with little or no time because of a pilot shortage? The only airlines that may face a shortage will be the regionals, and really who cares. The crappy qol, pay, schedules, etc will always exist at the regionals as long as the regionals are allowed to exist. The FAA is in bed with these airlines (as seen in the PBS Frontline investigation) and will always rule in favor of the airlines, not the pilot. The new gov't proposal stating you're gonna need an ATP to get hired, or go to an approved training school (ie UND, Purdue, Riddle, etc) will not create a shortage, it just means that you have to go to school for it now. I would be willing to bet that the majority of pilots who entered the industry in the last ten years already came from these schools anyways. No matter what happens, there will never be a shortage at the majors...EVER. I hope someday you can point a finger in my face and say see I told you so, but I'm only thinking pragmatically.

 

[BOOZENEWS]

its funny that the pilot hiring boom falls the same year as the end of the mayan calender (2012) maybe the old geezers that refused to retire knew something, hahaha

Not only the same year, but also the same month!!:laugh:

 

[kmox29]

The FAA is in bed with these airlines (as seen in the PBS Frontline investigation) and will always rule in favor of the airlines, not the pilot.

Just as it's unfair to paint the entire regional airline pilot group as unsafe and inexperienced, it's unfair to paint the entire FAA as being "in bed" with the carriers and always ruling "in favor of the airlines".

 

[JonnyKnoxville]

Like it or not pilotyip called the last hiring boom nearly dead on.

What hiring boom? I think you (like most pilots on this forum) are confusing hiring boom with hiring at all.

When I get multiple offers from FedEx, Delta, Southwest, UPS, Continental, etc. with signing bonuses and pay that AT LEAST matches that of a first year UPS first officer then I will concede that there is a hiring boom.

But as long as you have to beg for a job and accept low first year pay with no health benefits after paying dues for a decade, I will just call it hiring.

 

[pilotyip]

define boom

What hiring boom? I think you (like most pilots on this forum) are confusing hiring boom with hiring at all.

When I get multiple offers from FedEx, Delta, Southwest, UPS, Continental, etc. with signing bonuses and pay that AT LEAST matches that of a first year UPS first officer then I will concede that there is a hiring boom.

But as long as you have to beg for a job and accept low first year pay with no health benefits after paying dues for a decade, I will just call it hiring.

I don't think your definition is realistic, but then again this is FI. Anyone else care to define hiring boom, 3 times the hiring of today? 10 times? Is it 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, 2007? What defines boom?

 

[StarHustler]

To each his own, but if I were still under 30 and had the option to do so, I would pursue a Guard/Reserve UPT slot. In fact, I would give my right arm, (to be taken when I am 65) to go back in time and right some wrongs in my life and really pursue the military route.

Me and you both Amigo!