Why there's a good chance of a future pilot shortage

[BOOZENEWS]

Seems as though every month or so, someone starts a thread either here or at the Majors section about talk of a future pilot shortage with age 65 guys retiring in Dec 2012 combined with the economy recovering around that time. Others throw in the fact that there are far fewer student pilots who are willing to invest the time and money in obtaining they're certificates and ratings to become airline pilots as there were as recently as 10 yrs ago due to there being no pot of gold at the Majors as there once was.


I wanted to give you my 2 cents on why I think there will be far fewer students wanting to become airline pilot. This is my personal observation only and isn't any means gospel!

I am a just a private pilot, 400 hrs, 28 yrs old and fly a desk for a living and make decent money, but am by no means rich. I fly primarily on the weekends and enjoy it very much (of course!).

In my early to mid 20's when the airline industry was slowly recovering, I was eager to fly for the airlines via the normal CFI-Regional-Major pipeline. I was aware (from being on FI so much) of the pitfalls of the industry that ERAU/GIA/UND don't tell you.

Back in 2005 or so, I believed that sometime between 2008-10 that the industry would really be shining and that I'd go through with the rest of my cert and ratings and get on with a regional. I based this decision back then on the industry recovering in the 08-10 timeframe.

Of course this DIDN'T happen! Since 2008 or so, I decided it is highly unlikely I will peruse an airline career. I might get my CFI for a side job on the weekends or do a bit of contract flying in a light jet someday, but the chances of me quitting my 9 to 5 and going to a regional are practically nil barring some unforeseen miracle!

Why is this important??

Because SURELY, I'm NOT the only low time pilot who once was EAGER to fly for the airlines recently, but NOW am NOT going to do it due to things being even worse now that they were 5 yrs ago in the industry.

If there are a lot of other low time pilots who were once on the fence like I once was but who now are walking away, surely this will favorably affect the supply side of the equation and give existing pilot more leverage (not now, but certainly 10 yrs or more from now) at the negotiation table.

Again maybe not quickly but surely downstream this WILL EVENTUALLY catch up and give pilots at the regionals (and later the majors) a nice tailwind when it comes to pay and workrules.

Your thoughts?

 

[LearLove]

If you are in your "early to mid 20's" why don't you try the Guard/Reserves? Get a UPT slot and after training go back to your day job and fly as a traditional guard guy. You get to serve, some extra cash and still go home at night to see the wife and kids.

I would say you have made the right move. If I could do it over, I'd do the ANG and get a 9 to 5 job in my degree field (engineering). Maybe split a cub with a friend.

Where do you live?

 

[pilotyip]

all part of the 2012 pilot hiring boom

 

[sayrejm]

the boom that will happen right after the world ends...

I am instructing 12 hour days and enrollment at the college our school contracts for is up 16% this year. One of my students told me he is getting his ratings because he wants to make more money than he makes now..... yea, it's like i am facing a moral dilemma...

 

[Twisted Mind]

Like it or not pilotyip called the last hiring boom nearly dead on.

 

[samuraiguytn]

I find it funny (he he) how much I am fighting to stay with this career. I kinda feel that while even though I am furloughed, I put way to much into this, to just give up. Not to mention I actually enjoyed it. But as far as when its going to happen. I hope sooner then later. I don't wanna be running around during Armagedon saying "well on the bright side, I got called back."

 

[Flyin Tony]

all hail pilotyip

 

[Flex-ible]

I agree with much of what you say - although I doubt the ERAU and UND guys appreciate being lumped in with GIA......

A couple of notes:
- there will not be a sudden mass of retirements beginning in 2012, just a resumption of the slow trickle of the past.
- it is entirely likely that by 2012 all 121 operators will be required to hire only ATP's. This will dramatically increase the cost of reaching the cockpit of a regional, resulting in a shortage of FO's there and a massive surplus of flight instructors and 135 pilots. Logical result would be lower pay for 135 and higher pay for 121.
- as far as the Guard goes, you must remember there is a war on. New lieutenants are low-hanging fruit, and can expect to increase their experience level in Afghanistan.

 

[surveypilot]

- it is entirely likely that by 2012 all 121 operators will be required to hire only ATP's. This will dramatically increase the cost of reaching the cockpit of a regional, resulting in a shortage of FO's there and a massive surplus of flight instructors and 135 pilots. Logical result would be lower pay for 135 and higher pay for 121.

Although this may be true for the bottom feeder 135 operators, I can tell you that having only ATP minimums would not even get your resume into the short stack at my company. We fly only piston twins and we have never hired anyone with less than 3500 hours and most of our guys have had 15,000 hours plus.

 

[CX880]

the boom that will happen right after the world ends...

I am instructing 12 hour days and enrollment at the college our school contracts for is up 16% this year. One of my students told me he is getting his ratings because he wants to make more money than he makes now..... yea, it's like i am facing a moral dilemma...

someone's going to have to swing my gear. train him or she well.