Why there's a good chance of a future pilot shortage

[atpcliff]

Hi!

What if major airlines, like UAL, come to your high school, interview you if you have a Private, and hire you? Is that a shortage?

cliff
NBO

 

[Dubya]

What hiring boom? I think you (like most pilots on this forum) are confusing hiring boom with hiring at all.

When I get multiple offers from FedEx, Delta, Southwest, UPS, Continental, etc. with signing bonuses and pay that AT LEAST matches that of a first year UPS first officer then I will concede that there is a hiring boom.

But as long as you have to beg for a job and accept low first year pay with no health benefits after paying dues for a decade, I will just call it hiring.

This.

 

[Scope out RJ's]

I don't think your definition is realistic, but then again this is FI. Anyone else care to define hiring boom, 3 times the hiring of today? 10 times? Is it 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, 2007? What defines boom?

When people stop applying at ******************** hole operations like yours!:laugh:

 

[Quack]

Hi!

What if major airlines, like UAL, come to your high school, interview you if you have a Private, and hire you? Is that a shortage?

cliff
NBO

cliff, this isn't 1960 when the majors experienced a growth spurt that could never be matched ever again unless fares become free! You're absolutely kidding yourself if you think that this would ever happen. Yes it happened before, but that does not necessarily mean its going to happen again...

 

[Quack]

Just as it's unfair to paint the entire regional airline pilot group as unsafe and inexperienced, it's unfair to paint the entire FAA as being "in bed" with the carriers and always ruling "in favor of the airlines".

Really, when is the last time that the FAA has done ANYTHING to help the commercial pilot? They try to keep us and the public safe, regulate our companies, make rules that sometimes don't make sense, but in the end is that suppose to give me a warm fuzzy that I know the FAA is looking out for me as a pilot. Of course not. They give airlines a free pass whenever they can because they know that they are part of the infrastructure in this country. A 10 million fine to SWA or American regarding Mx issues is merely a slap on the wrist. I am not saying the ENTIRE FAA is in bed with carriers, but it's a generalization regarding the agency as a whole, and it's true, you know it, I know it, and ever other airline pilot knows it.

 

[EMBpilot]

Hiring boom is definitely coming. You have to be about 10 or so right now to feel it and tell future generations how easy it was, how you have all the toys, home all the time and a Captain and the major at 25.

The future generations will grow up drooling about airline careers and get hosed like 35-45 year olds at the regional right now.

 

[chuckthepilot]

Did this really need a cross post?
http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=130626

 

[Speedtape]

There will be a shortage. The best time to get qualified is when there is gloom and doom and there is no hiring going on. Peace Out!

 

[Tarzan]

There will be a shortage. The best time to get qualified is when there is gloom and doom and there is no hiring going on. Peace Out!

Agreed! That chick still gives me nightmares.

 

[livin'thesim]

......

 

[livin'thesim]

There is one big problem with the 135 route to the airlines:

The demise of much of the check flying. As more of the bank work ends up being handled electronically, these jobs will be gone forever. So, that leaves mostly turboprop and jet 135.

Sure, there is still SOME piston 135 work available, but there will not be enough of it to get lower time pilots the hours they need.

Also, unless they can get a 135 VFR job (500 hours minimum), then many companies would not hire someone just to have them quit 300 hours later.

I fully expect to see 135 companies become even more choosy about who they hire, since they would be getting screwed on training costs of there was a revolving door.

On the flip side, some companies may try the pay-for-time route, charging for training. Or, the few remaining dirbag freight companies can charge for training and pay nothing for anyone who is willing to fly PIC in a clapped-out old Aztec.

 

[kmox29]

Really, when is the last time that the FAA has done ANYTHING to help the commercial pilot?

I've personally done quite a bit to help "the commercial pilot". I'm assuming that when you reference "the FAA" you're talking about the policy makers in Washington, D.C.

They try to keep us and the public safe, regulate our companies, make rules that sometimes don't make sense, but in the end is that suppose to give me a warm fuzzy that I know the FAA is looking out for me as a pilot. Of course not. They give airlines a free pass whenever they can because they know that they are part of the infrastructure in this country.

I don't totally disagree with you here. "The FAA" has always been slow in making rule changes and has almost always been reactive in that endeavor. But I wanted to make it clear that "the FAA" which you reference (the D.C. policy makers) account for a small portion of who the FAA actually is.

If I made a statement that regional pilots are young, inexperienced, and potentially dangerous, using the Colgan crew as an example, I'd get murdered on these boards. And rightfully so. Because it's not true.

I just wanted people to know that "the FAA" is not representative of the FAA. If that makes any sense.

A 10 million fine to SWA or American regarding Mx issues is merely a slap on the wrist.

I agree. How bad should the US Government have crippled SWA?

I am not saying the ENTIRE FAA is in bed with carriers, but it's a generalization regarding the agency as a whole, and it's true, you know it, I know it, and ever other airline pilot knows it.

Generalizations are never a good thing. Most often, they're too general, but I won't argue that FAA policy/regulation decisions are slow in coming and always seem to be reactive.