Why there's a good chance of a future pilot shortage

[atpcliff]

Hi!

The number of student pilot starts, and ATPs awarded has been going down, year by year, for about 10 years in the US. This will be a MAJOR factor when Age 65 kicks in, and also If/when the ATP requirement comes into play. Many overseas airlines are already on the uptick, and they will be sucking up more and more American pilots, as they drastically expand (China and India, especially).

And, for the -135 types, if the ATP thing goes, there will be WAY less ATPs going -135, as all the -121 regionals (and even the less desirable larger airlines) will be forced to raise their conditions to fight over the limited number of ATPs. They may even start hiring low-time guys and paying for their training until they get their ATPs if they get desperate enough.

Military: They are getting MORE and MORE RPVs (Remotely Piloted Vehicles), so if you go mil, you may never see a manned aircraft cockpit.

cliff
NBO

 

[pilotyip]

Cliff gets it.

Hi!

The number of student pilot starts, and ATPs awarded has been going down, year by year, for about 10 years in the US. This will be a MAJOR factor when Age 65 kicks in, and also If/when the ATP requirement comes into play. Many overseas airlines are already on the uptick, and they will be sucking up more and more American pilots, as they drastically expand (China and India, especially).
NBO

Those who hang in right now or start right now are going to at the front of the line when when the 2012 hiring boom kicks into gear.

 

[i fly boxes]

its funny that the pilot hiring boom falls the same year as the end of the mayan calender (2012) maybe the old geezers that refused to retire knew something, hahaha

 

[CFI2766]

To each his own, but if I were still under 30 and had the option to do so, I would pursue a Guard/Reserve UPT slot. In fact, I would give my right arm, (to be taken when I am 65) to go back in time and right some wrongs in my life and really pursue the military route.

 

[Quack]

Do you guys seriously think that as soon as 2012 rolls around the flood gates are going to open and all of sudden the airlines are going to be soooo short they are going to pay us 1995 wages, and start hiring people with little or no time because of a pilot shortage? The only airlines that may face a shortage will be the regionals, and really who cares. The crappy qol, pay, schedules, etc will always exist at the regionals as long as the regionals are allowed to exist. The FAA is in bed with these airlines (as seen in the PBS Frontline investigation) and will always rule in favor of the airlines, not the pilot. The new gov't proposal stating you're gonna need an ATP to get hired, or go to an approved training school (ie UND, Purdue, Riddle, etc) will not create a shortage, it just means that you have to go to school for it now. I would be willing to bet that the majority of pilots who entered the industry in the last ten years already came from these schools anyways. No matter what happens, there will never be a shortage at the majors...EVER. I hope someday you can point a finger in my face and say see I told you so, but I'm only thinking pragmatically.

 

[BOOZENEWS]

its funny that the pilot hiring boom falls the same year as the end of the mayan calender (2012) maybe the old geezers that refused to retire knew something, hahaha

Not only the same year, but also the same month!!:laugh:

 

[kmox29]

The FAA is in bed with these airlines (as seen in the PBS Frontline investigation) and will always rule in favor of the airlines, not the pilot.

Just as it's unfair to paint the entire regional airline pilot group as unsafe and inexperienced, it's unfair to paint the entire FAA as being "in bed" with the carriers and always ruling "in favor of the airlines".

 

[JonnyKnoxville]

Like it or not pilotyip called the last hiring boom nearly dead on.

What hiring boom? I think you (like most pilots on this forum) are confusing hiring boom with hiring at all.

When I get multiple offers from FedEx, Delta, Southwest, UPS, Continental, etc. with signing bonuses and pay that AT LEAST matches that of a first year UPS first officer then I will concede that there is a hiring boom.

But as long as you have to beg for a job and accept low first year pay with no health benefits after paying dues for a decade, I will just call it hiring.

 

[pilotyip]

define boom

What hiring boom? I think you (like most pilots on this forum) are confusing hiring boom with hiring at all.

When I get multiple offers from FedEx, Delta, Southwest, UPS, Continental, etc. with signing bonuses and pay that AT LEAST matches that of a first year UPS first officer then I will concede that there is a hiring boom.

But as long as you have to beg for a job and accept low first year pay with no health benefits after paying dues for a decade, I will just call it hiring.

I don't think your definition is realistic, but then again this is FI. Anyone else care to define hiring boom, 3 times the hiring of today? 10 times? Is it 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, 2007? What defines boom?

 

[StarHustler]

To each his own, but if I were still under 30 and had the option to do so, I would pursue a Guard/Reserve UPT slot. In fact, I would give my right arm, (to be taken when I am 65) to go back in time and right some wrongs in my life and really pursue the military route.

Me and you both Amigo!