Who will be Southwest's merger partner?

[Jim Smyth]

My guess is American Airlines.

 

[vixin]

Climb for some odd reason I can never read your post. Didnt they used to bounce though?

 

[Ky.BrownBourbn]

At the rate at which the airline industry is going with various airlines failing, I don't think that WN needs to merge with anyone. Cheaper to pick up gates and A/C at fire sales than to go through a merger. With the price of Oil going up, it's better to stand on the side lines and watch. If anyone has the cash to aquire someone quick it would be WN. Better to be a little cautious than to be hasty and waste valuable resources.

Bingo!

I know the SHARKS (not just ours) are circling waiting for the blood in a couple of places! WN stopped or slowed down hiring, then 3 classes in April, plus supposedly 2 more in May (equals about 125 more bodies)...Something's Up! Then heard delayed retirement of Aircraft (300's) until 4 qtr.

This whole thing is going to get interesting! BUT mergers make no since in this market...When the dust settles, everything's for sale...Unfortunately!

Good Luck to all!
KBB

 

[alaskaplt]

Alaska is my hugely uneducated guess. More west coast presence, especially the northwest. Mostly 737 fleet.

I wish. Doubt it though.

 

[jester757]

Because WE are your biggest competitor in and out of ATL,,,

Although, you'd also get to go head-to-head with Southwest, which I'm certain wouldn't thrill senior DAL management.

I'm certain no one wants our 717's... it's probably what kept someone from coming after us before. The problem is selling them to someone who wants what we owe on them.

The only way you're getting airTran's 737's by themselves is if the company liquidated or, for some reason, agreed to sell off ALL the 737's and keep operating as AAI with just the 717's (unlikely).

Otherwise, you've got to sell them and take a BIG loss. Southwest isn't exactly in the habit of doing that, historically-speaking.

What is airtran's contract have in it about fragmintation? Anything to prevent it?

 

[PCL_128]

The fragmentation language isn't the best. I wouldn't count on it being worth very much if push came to shove.

 

[ron burgundy]

Colgan!!!!

 

[mvedepo]

I predict Frontier! Or maybe that's wishful thinking...ssshhhhh....

why would you want that? Southwest doesn't want an Airbus. If they bought F9 they would liquidate the company to some foreign airline and just take the gates.

 

[Lear70]

The fragmentation language isn't the best. I wouldn't count on it being worth very much if push came to shove.

Fragmentation language simply says that the company will "use their best efforts to ensure the pilots go with the airline", blah blah blah. You're right, if it wasn't for the recent legislation, I'd be much more concerned.

If the company is sold whole, the pilots go.

If the company is parted out while still a viable entity, the pilots have to go with any deal that is considered a large portion of the operation taken as a large combination of aircraft and gates to a single buyer.

The only thing that would let them break the company up and kick the pilots to the curb would be complete liquidation and someone picking up the scraps, a la Aloha and ATA.

Not going to happen quite yet. Relax.

 

[airlinepilot]

When I was in Dallas for training a couple of months ago we were told that if we ACQUIRE another airline it would not be Frontier. The opinion of the company leadership was that Frontier had only 90 cash on hand and would be in BK soon. The leadership said why pay for something when you can pickup the part you want (gates) in a fire sale. They also said "use your head", it's not going to be a legacy. It's going to be a LCC that would be like us and get us into ATL, MSP, LGA, etc......sorta pointed to Air Tran. I would not be surprised if our leadership just waited around to see who has $$$ problems which would make it easier and cheaper to acquire.

as for you Unltrarunner.......your posts speaks volumes about your knowledge and understand of SWA and the industry as a whole

 

[Jet41]

Colgan

 

[Andy]

No merger, just internal growth. My bet is that the bulk of it occurs in DEN. F9 will be shrinking in bankruptcy and LUV is likely planning a big expansion there. That should be enough to keep them busy for a while. It'll be interesting to see if LUV pushes to pick up a bunch of A gates in DEN.

 

[FatesPawn]

You're right, if it wasn't for the recent legislation, I'd be much more concerned.

If the company is sold whole, the pilots go.

If the company is parted out while still a viable entity, the pilots have to go with any deal that is considered a large portion of the operation taken as a large combination of aircraft and gates to a single buyer.

Lear,

I don't disagree with you that the Bond/McCaskill legislation makes it much harder to NOT take employees.....

...however, the new legislation only applies IF employees are part of the deal. A scenario like the former Muse/Transtar deal perhaps operated separately, in a wet-lease deal slowly moving assets like gates and airplanes over the the acquiring company that DOES NOT involve the transfer of people does not fall under the language of the Bond/McCaskill legislation.

This may sound far fetched but the bottom line is Allegheny Mohawk will only apply if people are part of the deal. If it's for assets only, your merger/fragmentation language is your only protection.

-fate

 

[WalterSobchak]

I'm certain no one wants our 717's... it's probably what kept someone from coming after us before. The problem is selling them to someone who wants what we owe on them.

I could see Hawaiian interested in a few of them for interisland service...not sure who would take the remaining 80-something airframes.

 

[GuppyWN]

No merger, just internal growth. My bet is that the bulk of it occurs in DEN. F9 will be shrinking in bankruptcy and LUV is likely planning a big expansion there. That should be enough to keep them busy for a while. It'll be interesting to see if LUV pushes to pick up a bunch of A gates in DEN.

Nail meet hammer. Good summation Andy. I was in DAL this week and there's big talk about DEN. Market it growing exponentially and most all our growth plans this year were focused on Denver. That was before Friday. I'd expect a major push second half of the year to include taking more airplanes and pilots than expected for 2008.

Gup

 

[bmxandjets]

Nail meet hammer. Good summation Andy. I was in DAL this week and there's big talk about DEN. Market it growing exponentially and most all our growth plans this year were focused on Denver. That was before Friday. I'd expect a major push second half of the year to include taking more airplanes and pilots than expected for 2008.

Gup

so would that mean HR would start gearing up for more interviews..?

 

[Secret Squirrel]

so would that mean HR would start gearing up for more interviews..?

Or they could buy someone, like airtran, and pull overlapping capacity, like BWI, and send it to Denver.

 

[GuppyWN]

BMX, don't know. I didn't ask how deep the pool was but last I heard there are 3 classes this month and 2 in May. Could very well be just to catch up. We are fat on the captain side and really short on FO's. I love the F9 guys and hope they are doing all the right things to revive their cash position but if there is a void left in Denver I'd hope it would be us that filled it.

I'm just a line guy. All I have is speculation based on what I heard in Dallas.

Gup

 

[RedDogC130]

I think the pool was 300+ deep...from what I remember way back

 

[vandypilot]

Spirit has gates in LGA, BOS, ATL