What Would You Do ?

[pilotyip]

If you were that good at "boom" forecasting, why aren't you flying your own jet airplane around with stock market "boom" money? I though naught.

naught doin bad, still livin the dream of a five year old.

 

[Kalifornia]

naught doin bad, still livin the dream of a five year old.

With the dementia of a 90 year old.

 

[BrickTop]

Stay.....you may never get back that kind of seniority. Most respectable regionals will pay close to major pay after long enough. If thats not reason enough consider the next recession will your seniority protect you or will you see the street.

 

[Brazilgun]

I'm all for a measured dose of optimism combined with realism, but this type of post contributes to the degradation of the profession. So many shiny jet types at the various flight schools are going to get the same twinkle eyes as the pilots who've been been fed the same type of lineage over the last 10 years. Oh times are a little tough now, but you just wait, gosh darn it, you'll be able to go wherever you want to! And may not even sit reserve!?!?

This only encourages more fringe types to aim to go to the likes of Mesa and "just here to get my PIC time" so I can get on the hiring boom ASAP. Which in turn brings down the profession. Are you related to Kit Darby? And yes you live in la la land and even if you weren't, this type of post is like some fisherman who's so proud of his potential spot, he brags to the rest of the town. It's not "simple" math; in CRM terms, there are many threats to the future "legacy hiring boom".

Kalifornia,
Enlight me with your thoughts for the next 10 years.....Exactly!
Nobody knows. Not even you. Some people just choose to look at the positive. And no, I don't have jet syndrome. I don't whore myself out just for a flying job. I had a interview with MT ANG, but my wife and 2 kids stopped me from joining. Military was my #1 choice, but I wasn't willing to sacrifice my family. So what should I do to be an airline pilot? What did you do? It seems to me that you went to a flight school and now flies for a regional. It's funny how everybody else settles for less, but not you. You're in the same path that many of us walk but you're somehow better.
Pittful my friend.
"this type of post contributes to the degradation of the profession" Really? I like to think that one day I will improve my pay and quality of life. Many others have done it. Is that a degradation of the profession?
Get a life. You can't really blame your wife for leaving you......

 

[Kalifornia]

Kalifornia,
Enlight me with your thoughts for the next 10 years.....Exactly!
Nobody knows. Not even you. Some people just choose to look at the positive. And no, I don't have jet syndrome. I don't whore myself out just for a flying job. I had a interview with MT ANG, but my wife and 2 kids stopped me from joining. Military was my #1 choice, but I wasn't willing to sacrifice my family. So what should I do to be an airline pilot? What did you do? It seems to me that you went to a flight school and now flies for a regional. It's funny how everybody else settles for less, but not you. You're in the same path that many of us walk but you're somehow better.
Pittful my friend.
"this type of post contributes to the degradation of the profession" Really? I like to think that one day I will improve my pay and quality of life. Many others have done it. Is that a degradation of the profession?
Get a life. You can't really blame your wife for leaving you......

Generalities don't help the situation - not every flight school and every airline is the same and will be easily attainable. My start in this profession began before the high (very high) rise in training costs and the crushing loss in legacy positions and overall degradation in quality airline pilot positions. And my wife leaving me? This must be some Brazilian cultural attempt at an insult that's lost in translation?

In plane speak, you don't zone out with wishful positive thinking during the takeoff roll in the belief that nothing can go wrong. The last hiring boom (2004-2006 range) created a boom in $20,000 first year mostly maxing at $35,000 or so annual for FO jobs at the "regionals" and a small number in relation "legacy" jobs if you also include SWA, UPS, and Fedex. Many if not most of those jobs = furloughed. That's on top of the vast massive mushroom in flight training expenses (100 grand now many with 150 grand loans ($500 to $700 and more a month student loan payments for years and years and years) for a position that pays $2,000 a month take home pay. I certainly don't feel positive about this profession when new comers get suckered in to believing that this amount is of little concern, because we're facing a "legacy hiring boom". Something I'm sure all the major flight schools like to promote.

No can predict future airline economics just like no one can predict the exact weather for tomorrow. But I can bring along a jacket a lot easier than someone gambling their financial well being and career choice on the reckless Kit Darby like idea that tomorrow is going to be warm and sunny for the future airline pilot. It hasn't been warm and sunny since the mid to late 90s and that didn't last for very long. Just as the previous boom during the mid to late 80s didn't last long. Post deregulation history is thus very muddied. You want to at least help the profession have a sunnier outlook? Then quit selling this profession like it was investing in gold these days as a supposed boom career waiting for the masses. That would help again with the deregulated economical environment maybe keep the supply level of pilots a little better in check and not contributing to the race to the bottom Pilotyip so gleefully enjoys.

 

[Blade Runner]

Hiring boom 2012, mark your calendar

I thought the Boom was suppose to be the end of the world in 2012?

 

[pilotyip]

Wrong

That would help again with the deregulated economical environment maybe keep the supply level of pilots a little better in check and not contributing to the race to the bottom Pilotyip so gleefully enjoys.

I have nothing to do with your race to the bottom, you are playing in the race to bottom all by yourself and it is my fault? BTW there was no hiring boom in 2004, maybe in late 2006 it started. I had furloughed NWA and DAL pilots working with me up until 2006. They were all great guys and I am fortunate our paths had crossed. Most of them flew because they liked to and that is why they came to work wit hme during thier furlough. You gonna bad mouth the DAL and NWA pilots for being bottom feeders?

 

[Black Hawk]

What are your reasons for not wanting to leave a regional? I was in your same situation. I could not be happier after leaving for Delta. Don't look at the short term (temporary paycuts, etc). You have 30 plus years of flying left. As my wife told me, you didn't get started in this field just to stay at a regional. Don't cut your goals short.

It's really a crap shoot. If you like your current job and it meets your financial needs then be picky about where you move to. Some of the legacy carriers are not really steps up anymore so pick and choose carefully. Good luck.

 

[johnsonrod]

Stay.....you may never get back that kind of seniority. Most respectable regionals will pay close to major pay after long enough. If thats not reason enough consider the next recession will your seniority protect you or will you see the street.

Let me guess? You have a DUI? How about an FAA bust? You are justifying living in the minor leagues. As soon as I can do it, I am outta here towards a legacy and a better life. The key is when you get hired, and I am planning for the beginning of hiring. The regionals are dying.

 

[Kalifornia]

I have nothing to do with your race to the bottom, you are playing in the race to bottom all by yourself and it is my fault? BTW there was no hiring boom in 2004, maybe in late 2006 it started. I had furloughed NWA and DAL pilots working with me up until 2006. They were all great guys and I am fortunate our paths had crossed. Most of them flew because they liked to and that is why they came to work wit hme during thier furlough. You gonna bad mouth the DAL and NWA pilots for being bottom feeders?

Yea, you absolutely contribute to the race to the bottom. Your principle reason for being on here is to convince pilots not to ask or expect more pay or better work contributions. Just treat this career now as a non-serious hobby. Even the pathetic notion you've made before that all pilots should move to Yip County, Michigan and commute to all over the country in order to live on the cheap. Not to mention, your prior statements that "high school dropouts" can fly professionally just fine. And then "they came to work wit hme during their furlough". This must be some Chuck Yeager attempt at self promotion.

 

[jegermeister]

Hiring boom is coming in 2011, get on the front and see what happens, you will know if you made the right move in 5 maybe 10 years. Remember all the guys who went to their career jobs at NJ, ABX, DAL, AAL, etc. Seniority at your present job may have some nice side effects. Don't worry about the degree thing SWA doesn;t care.

Hiring boom 2012, mark your calendar

So is it 2011 or 2012? Do I hear 2013?

 

[pilotyip]

coming

So is it 2011 or 2012? Do I hear 2013?

coming in 2011, accelerating in 2012 as the economy recovers and the full effect of age 65 kicks in

 

[Kalifornia]

coming in 2011, accelerating in 2012 as the economy recovers and the full effect of age 65 kicks in

2012 - the economy recovers. And with such conviction. Wow, I'm sure you also successfully predicted the downturn to invest heavily in shorted stocks. All those economists who went to college (who even then are making EDUCATED guesses); silly them, didn't need dem college degree to go to Southwest, they gots nothing on coot Pilotyip.

 

[pilotyip]

Always a guess

2012 - the economy recovers. And with such conviction. Wow, I'm sure you also successfully predicted the downturn to invest heavily in shorted stocks. All those economists who went to college (who even then are making EDUCATED guesses); silly them, didn't need dem college degree to go to Southwest, they gots nothing on coot Pilotyip.

Of course all predictions of the future are educated guesses. Having lived through the cycles many times in my life, you tend to get a feel for what will happen next. Based upon this I make my best guess wither it be hiring predictions or investments. But only time will tell if the guess is correct. I guessed correctly about the 2007-hiring boom in Sept of 2003. But how do we define a hiring boom? Is it 3 times the number of jobs today or is it a fixed number or is it the we must see 1965 again where PVT pilots were being hired by UAL? What defines a hiring boom in your eyes? How many on this board found themselves unemployed and unable to find a job in 2007, 1996, 1986, and 1978? unlike 1973, 1983, 1993, and 2003 and 2009? BTW based upon the parallels to 1983, the next hiring boom will take place in 2012. BTW If the economy does not recover, we have much bigger problems than the lack of a pilot hiring boom

 

[Kalifornia]

Of course all predictions of the future are educated guesses. Having lived through the cycles many times in my life, you tend to get a feel for what will happen next. Based upon this I make my best guess wither it be hiring predictions or investments. But only time will tell if the guess is correct. I guessed correctly about the 2007-hiring boom in Sept of 2003. But how do we define a hiring boom? Is it 3 times the number of jobs today or is it a fixed number or is it the we must see 1965 again where PVT pilots were being hired by UAL? What defines a hiring boom in your eyes? How many on this board found themselves unemployed and unable to find a job in 2007, 1996, 1986, and 1978? unlike 1973, 1983, 1993, and 2003 and 2009? BTW based upon the parallels to 1983, the next hiring boom will take place in 2012. BTW If the economy does not recover, we have much bigger problems than the lack of a pilot hiring boom

I'll give credit where credit is due, this is a much more intelligent considerate thought out post, except for parallel comparisons to 1983. Today's environment still reeks of larger capacity aircraft being flown at the "regional" level, the Republic cartel debacle, and a other management forces including flight schools that have gained experience over the past 3 decades in screwing over anyone who "dreams" of flying.

 

[BrickTop]

Let me guess? You have a DUI? How about an FAA bust? You are justifying living in the minor leagues. As soon as I can do it, I am outta here towards a legacy and a better life. The key is when you get hired, and I am planning for the beginning of hiring. The regionals are dying.

If you would like to "GUESS" you will be just as wrong if you "Assume." No I do not have a DUI, NO I do not have an FAA violation. But thanks for "GUESSING." I in fact own two businesses and with 3 income sources there is no need to give up the time I have invested that gives me the flexibility I need.

 

[Caveman]

Leave the regional behind and never look back. I did it at 47. I was a junior CA driving to work at a large regional. I was displaced back to FO and had to decide whether or not I would wait it out or make a move. I chose to move on and it's the best career decision I ever made. Even though I now commute to work (typing this in my crashpad) my QOL has never been better. The money isn't even close. I'm financially way ahead of where I would be if I had stayed.

As far as all the prognosticators on here preaching gloom and doom or nirvana, who cares? Look, nobody knows for sure how our lives and careers are going to play out. Take a chance. Make it an educated, reasonable chance, but go ahead and take the risk. If you are like most of us that did you'll be very, very happy with the outcome. There aren't any guarantees in life, but in order to win you have to gamble a little bit. Don't be stupid, but be willing to risk a little to gain a lot. Face it, you've maxed out at the regional level. It will not get significantly better. You'll get a modest pay raise/COLA every year and that's about it. You'll probably never see a different type of airframe. You're 31, typed in a RJ and done. That's it for the next 29-34 years. Is that what you really signed up for? I doubt it.

Now, here's the controversial part of my post. Besides pay/QOL there are many subtle differences between flying for a major and flying for a regional. Little things you wouldn't ordinarily even notice, but they add up to a totally different work experience. In no particular order, here's just a few to think about:

Better hotels (better rested; more enjoyable overnights; better facilities)
Longer overnights (Consistantly getting 12-14 hours versus 10 hours is huge)
Shorter duty days (1-3 legs instead of 5 leg days)
Roomier a/c (Even a "cramped" Maddog cockpit is better than any RJ)
Jetbridges (It sounds minor, but not having to schlep your crap up and down stairs and staying out of the weather really makes a difference)

I know most of these things are petty crap, but they add up. Way more than you might think. The totality of the experience is exponentially better than a regional gig even though on the surface it seems like we're doing the same job.

Last but not least, you will have made it to the big leagues. You'll never have to wonder "What if....". You'll know. It won't make you a better person. You won't be better than a regional pilot in any sense that matters. However, you will have reached for the the brass ring and made it to the conventional top of our industry. That does matter to the person that's most important. You. My regional brethren will take exception to these comments, but they don't know. They'll tell you why it makes sense for them to stay where they are. To a large degree they'll be right. It still doesn't answer the question even most of them want to know. What would it be like to fly for a major? They'll never know and they'll keep telling themselves that it doesn't matter. It does matter. I know it, they know it and you know it. Good luck.

Flame suit on.

 

[Rook]

I just hope your company starts hiring again soon Caveman! Hope you had a Happy Thanksgiving buddy!

 

[airjackson]

Now, here's the controversial part of my post. Last but not least, you will have made it to the big leagues. You'll never have to wonder "What if....". You'll know. It won't make you a better person. You won't be better than a regional pilot in any sense that matters. However, you will have reached for the the brass ring and made it to the conventional top of our industry. That does matter to the person that's most important. You. My regional brethren will take exception to these comments, but they don't know. They'll tell you why it makes sense for them to stay where they are. To a large degree they'll be right. It still doesn't answer the question even most of them want to know. What would it be like to fly for a major? They'll never know and they'll keep telling themselves that it doesn't matter. It does matter. I know it, they know it and you know it. Good luck.

Flame suit on.

Remember the joke: How do you know if there's an airline pilot at the party? He'll tell you.

There's your guy.



Seriously, I saw this thread the day it was started and knew exactly where it was headed. FI never seems to disappoint. The original poster was wise to solicit input from others who have gone before him but ultimately, it's up to him to determin what financial, professional, and QOL factors are most important to him. Trust me, if you leave your ego out of the equation, your life will be much better off in the long run.
Several professionals I flew with at the regional are still there, for a multitude of reasons. One is married to a MD, doesn't have to commute, and otherwise finds his job satisfying. The others remain there for reasons I'm sure you know, being at a regional yourself.
Of course, many of my collleagues moved on to the "Majors" and are quite happy- those few that aren't currently furloughed that is.
Myself? I left the regional (and the airlines for that matter) world for a large fractional company and wouldn't dream of going back. I won't bother to explain all of my reasons as it would take too long and really, you need to have your own reasons when considering a new employer. I will say, that in regards to the list of "improvements/perks" that the poster above listed... true. I've never stayed in better hotels, been treated with more respect, been paid more, been home more, etc.
Do your research and then talk to your wife, your parents (- Dad was a recently retired "Major" pilot who PLEADED with me not to follow in his steps to a major) your kids, etc. Make the right decision for you and don't be blinded by ego.

 

[Caveman]

It's not about ego. It's about challenging yourself and continuing to reach. It's very easy to get caught up in settling for 'good enough". I know because I did just that. Regional CA was 'good enough'. Translation: This is a safe bet, it's better than where I was, I don't want to risk losing a decent job for a chance at a better one, etc, etc. I was lucky. Circumstance forced me to reconsider. I didn't leave my regional job because I was striving for excellence. I found myself in financial circumstances that forced my hand. I had to do something. It's only in retrospect I recognize how easily I got sucked into 'good enough'. I see it happening to my friends. None of them are really content with their current jobs, but fear and uncertainty are holding them back. That's what happened to me too. Either by chance or divine guidance I was presented with an opportunity to reconsider. I'm grateful for that even though it was painful at the time.

There are plenty of valid reasons to stay at a regional and who am I to say what's legit and what's not. However, barring unique circumstances most of us will find more satisfaction in reaching for the next level and it isn't all about the size of the paycheck.

To the OP, based on the little info you gave us I would take a shot if I were you. You're young, no kids and have a supportive wife. Go for it.


(Hi Rook, Happy Thanksgiving to you too!)