For those of you that are preaching there is no way the airlines will re-regulate, I wouldn’t be too sure of yourself. Aviation gas is rising too quickly for the typical cash strapped consumer to handle without a significant drop off in market share. Now add in a recession and our lowest consumer confidence since 1992; then top it all off by a credit calamity, and we’ve got a full blown crisis. The forth quarter looks like it will be very ugly.
It was reported on Hannity and Combs last night that some petroleum economists are now going as far as predicting gas going up to $9.00 per gallon with the price of a barrel of oil as high as $200 in the next year. There’s little hope for any of us staying out of bankruptcy if the price of oil goes much above 20%-30% increase in the next year much less $200 per barrel.
If the entire industry slips into bankruptcy, the US Government will be forced to take drastic action. They will have little choice since the US public still wants and needs to fly. Safety in this environment must take a front seat as all airlines will be taking short-cuts to save on precious cash.
What’s different with our industry which will eventually require re-regulation is our high cost of capital, exposure to oil prices, terrorism, a massive requirement for safety, and the lax laws for operating in bankruptcy. All have driven our industry from one of envy to the disaster it is now.
It looks like we’re at the top of the roller-coaster. Hold on tight, it looks like it will be a bumpy ride. The rest of the year will be very interesting. Good luck to us all.
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