What would happen to SKYW if UAL died?

[CFI2766]

[FONT=&quot]He's been known to be a little bit of a fruit loop, but in an interview in this (2009) January's Playboy, Sir Richard Branson discussed the possible future of United.

Interviewer: "...the (airline) industry is in utter disarray."

Branson: "...Some of the really big airlines that are left could topple. At least one may topple soon."

Interviewer: "Which one?"

Branson: "It doesn't take much imagination to guess. But at least one of the two giants is likely to go.....We've got brand new planes, unlike big airlines like United. Our cost basis is much better than theirs..."


This raises some interesting questions. If United does fail, how will that affect Skywest? Also, facing a large potential reduction in Skywest's need for pilots, how might that affect ASA?[/FONT]

 

[sweptback]

Given that ASA has pretty good scope to protect against aircraft transfers and a no-furlough clause, I'd say ASA would come out fine.

 

[Captain Morgan]

I'll take it even further... what about Shuttle America(RAH), Colgan, TSA, GoJet, and Mesa... They will lose a lot of flying but someone's going to have to fill the void.

 

[Skaff]

[FONT=&quot]He's been known to be a little bit of a fruit loop, but in an interview in this (2009) January's Playboy, Sir Richard Branson discussed the possible future of United.

Interviewer: "...the (airline) industry is in utter disarray."

Branson: "...Some of the really big airlines that are left could topple. At least one may topple soon."

Interviewer: "Which one?"

Branson: "It doesn't take much imagination to guess. But at least one of the two giants is likely to go.....We've got brand new planes, unlike big airlines like United. Our cost basis is much better than theirs..."


This raises some interesting questions. If United does fail, how will that affect Skywest? Also, facing a large potential reduction in Skywest's need for pilots, how might that affect ASA?[/FONT]

I've never read a Playboy. I didn't even know they had words.

 

[ePilot22]

[FONT=&quot]He's been known to be a little bit of a fruit loop, but in an interview in this (2009) January's Playboy, Sir Richard Branson discussed the possible future of United.

Interviewer: "...the (airline) industry is in utter disarray."

Branson: "...Some of the really big airlines that are left could topple. At least one may topple soon."

Interviewer: "Which one?"

Branson: "It doesn't take much imagination to guess. But at least one of the two giants is likely to go.....We've got brand new planes, unlike big airlines like United. Our cost basis is much better than theirs..."


This raises some interesting questions. If United does fail, how will that affect Skywest? Also, facing a large potential reduction in Skywest's need for pilots, how might that affect ASA?[/FONT]

This is him selling tickets for his airline. "We have brand new aircraft, United is going to fail" blah, blah, blah. Fly VA...NOT!

Well Sir Branson, I want to go from LAX to ORD, United has that route what about your airline? Huh, really. Couldn't get any gates in Chicago, don't want to go head to head with Southwest?

What about BRAND RECOGNITION? My first thought on airlines isn't Virgin America. But you have lower costs *pats Sir Branson on the back* job well done.

Go burgle some more turds, ya turd burglar!








eP.

 

[flyboyzz1]

wouldn't be good. would go two ways. massive layoffs and downsizing or buying the domestic routes or a million other different routes.

 

[Erlanger]

wouldn't be good. would go two ways. massive layoffs and downsizing or buying the domestic routes or a million other different routes.

Interesting you should say that. Jerry Atkin said about 3 years ago when asked that same thing about United. He said that Skywest had contingency plans with United to do just that. I'm not sure how that would be done; it's not like United could just hand Skywest planes and routes even at any price. Isn't there regulatory approvals and all? But on the other hand, if that all took months to accomplish, I guess that's not much time in the scheme of things for an airline.

 

[WalterSobchak]

Could definitely go a little something like this:

"Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome aboard SkyWest Airlines flight 839 with non-stop service to Sydney, Australia...operated by SkyWest international partner carrier United Airlines."

Seriously...it would be a clusterfark...but I think, with as much as SKYW's survival depends on UAL, I don't think it would be too far out of the realm of possibility for SKYW to buy up a majority stake in UAUA.

Of course, none of us can predict how UAL would react to having competent management for once.

 

[CFI2766]

Given that ASA has pretty good scope to protect against aircraft transfers and a no-furlough clause, I'd say ASA would come out fine.

That's my hope, anyway.

I don't see any massive growth 'opportunities' if UAL craters, however.

 

[Tarzan]

Those seats would be flown by someone else. In the current state of the economy, I don't think the Imperial Federal Government would allow for that entity to go away.

 

[DX Rick]

I've never read a Playboy. I didn't even know they had words.

You and me both.

 

[JoeMerchant]

Given that ASA has pretty good scope to protect against aircraft transfers and a no-furlough clause, I'd say ASA would come out fine.

It would be a major blow to our parent corporation....Therefor it would hurt us also....

How have all the scope sections and no furlough clauses helped the United boys?

I believe Jerry and the boys have a plan B and C....It may involve Skywest buying up United....If that happens...the scope "debate" will really heat up.....

 

[crj567]

I don't believe United will fold anytime soon.... Probably the govt. would just bail them out as they have a few other larger, poorly-run airlines in the past.
-Too big to fail, etc.

-Pretty soon we are all going to be govt. employees-at least according to our tax bill.

 

[Cpt Oveur]

ASA's scope and air transfer clause is a dog with no teeth. Have you read that section? They can transfer aircraft up to a certain amount a year for years before one pilot from ASA needs to be moved to the skywest list.

 

[amcnd]

What would happen to Eagle if AA went out.... Horizon if Alaska..... Dumb question.....

 

[sweptback]

ASA's scope and air transfer clause is a dog with no teeth. Have you read that section? They can transfer aircraft up to a certain amount a year for years before one pilot from ASA needs to be moved to the skywest list.

Well, yes and no. They can transfer 4 aircraft in a rolling 12 month period but they can't furlough anybody hired before 11/20/07. It would take 35 years to transfer all the airplanes at that rate!

 

[sweptback]

It would be a major blow to our parent corporation....Therefor it would hurt us also....

We're separate companies with separate books, right?

 

[JoeMerchant]

We're separate companies with separate books, right?

So were CMR and DAL....right?

 

[flyboyzz1]

I'm sure Ill get bashed for this but I bet Jerry and the SKW mgmnt team could turn around and make UAL profitable.

 

[Andy Neill]

When UAL was approaching bankruptcy, I suggested to the CFO that SKYW simply buy them. He smiled at the whimsical suggestion and said they actually had looked at it but the cash flow was not something that would be sustainable. Shortly after, UAL entered bankruptcy.

 

[USCtrojan]

When UAL was approaching bankruptcy, I suggested to the CFO that SKYW simply buy them. He smiled at the whimsical suggestion and said they actually had looked at it but the cash flow was not something that would be sustainable. Shortly after, UAL entered bankruptcy.

Why would SkyW want to buy them Andy? I mean, right now, they assume no risk. Other than performing and meeting Contractual requirements. Basically like an employee. I wouldn't want anything to do with UAL's business (meaning as an investor). ASA was a big enough challenge, imagine what UAL would be with all the labor strife!

Trojan

 

[Andy Neill]

Why would SkyW want to buy them Andy? I mean, right now, they assume no risk. Other than performing and meeting Contractual requirements. Basically like an employee. I wouldn't want anything to do with UAL's business (meaning as an investor). ASA was a big enough challenge, imagine what UAL would be with all the labor strife!

Trojan

Trojan,
If you look at this in the context of the time period being discussed, it makes more sense. UAL was approaching bankruptcy and SKYW was one of several regionals doing the feed. Adjusted agreements in bankruptcy could mean (and did mean) a substantial reduction in flying for SKYW. SKYW has a killer management team who can do magic.

I was not referring to the present situation at all and my past suggestion was whimsical at best.

 

[SLOTH]

Of course, none of us can predict how UAL would react to having competent management for once.

:laugh:

 

[USCtrojan]

Trojan,
If you look at this in the context of the time period being discussed, it makes more sense. UAL was approaching bankruptcy and SKYW was one of several regionals doing the feed. Adjusted agreements in bankruptcy could mean (and did mean) a substantial reduction in flying for SKYW. SKYW has a killer management team who can do magic.

I was not referring to the present situation at all and my past suggestion was whimsical at best.

I gotcha! Good point. I guess my original point is or was that SkyW would never want to be a major airline because of assumed risk and that more than quadrupling from their current situation. However, that being said, if their parent Company is on the fritz then, yes, they would have a major incentive to become a Major investor in that business. Sort of repeated what your were pointing out, I guess I just needed to write it out cuz I'm slow!

Trojan

 

[sweptback]

So were CMR and DAL....right?

Yeah but CMR fed DAL. ASA doesn't feed SKYW, nor are we dependent on SKYW, Inc. for our income. Apples and oranges.

 

[JoeMerchant]

Yeah but CMR fed DAL. ASA doesn't feed SKYW, nor are we dependent on SKYW, Inc. for our income. Apples and oranges.

If SKYW Inc. declares BK....they can drag ASA into BK....just as MAIR did with Mesaba and DAL did with CMR.....

The majority of Skywest flying is for United...It won't be good for us if UAL goes TU.....

Go ahead and put your faith in our section 1.....I'll continue to hope United makes it....

 

[ASApuppy]

I guess I just needed to write it out cuz I'm slow!

Trojan

This quote is the most truthful thing I've ever read on flightinfo. j/k Mr. USC.. Sir...hee hee

On to the point I'll make. If you are going to talk about a collapse of UAL and its impact on SKYW, I think you must bring in to the discussion the impact on other carriers for UAL. I think they are in a weaker condition and have a bigger share of their respective pie involved with UAL. Gojet, Mesa, and Republic have more at stake than SKYW. Lose of UAL funds for those carriers might just be the death blow and would leave the other carriers to bid on the flying left behind from surviving partners.

Just my 2 cents...

 

[Tarzan]

On to the point I'll make. If you are going to talk about a collapse of UAL and its impact on SKYW, I think you must bring in to the discussion the impact on other carriers for UAL. I think they are in a weaker condition and have a bigger share of their respective pie involved with UAL. Gojet, Mesa, and Republic have more at stake than SKYW. Lose of UAL funds for those carriers might just be the death blow and would leave the other carriers to bid on the flying left behind from surviving partners.

Just my 2 cents...

Agreed. The amount of money SKW Inc has to see things through makes it much more likely to be standing after the dust settled. This even as money in the bank for SKW, ASA and Inc are all separate entities as far as the FAA and SEC is concerned. There is still a much larger amount on hand than Republic, MAG, TSH, XJET could come with together.

 

[PBRstreetgang]

I'm sure Ill get bashed for this but I bet Jerry and the SKW mgmnt team could turn around and make UAL profitable.

Actually "clubbed like a baby seal" comes to mind. Jerry and his kids have never had to run an operation where they were contractually guaranteed less than 7% net profit and most times in the past were much higher, approaching 12-14%. To have to run a global airline from SGU wouldn't work, the 1 phone line is too iffy. They would be idiots to voluntarily give up the fee for departure scheme and compete toe to toe with other carriers. Put your winkie away and dream about the mighty CRJ200, the hug with wings!
PBR

 

[Jon Rivoli]

Back then I asked Ron why we didn't just buy United. He said that $100 million will buy you about $15 billion worth of debt and not much more. So I asked him, "What if UAL liquidates?" He said we buy the Alaska Air Group and we own the west coast. Ron's gone now. I wonder where he is.