Wall Street sure likes the merger news for ALK JB and LCC

[Mamma]

ALK-HAL. Coming soon to an island near you!

 

[Mea25000]

Just talked to one of our fearless leaders. No merging in AS's future in any form. Growth and lots of it. Starting soon! But I will believe it when I see it. New city announcements in a couple of days...

 

[NuGuy]

Just talked to one of our fearless leaders. No merging in AS's future in any form. Growth and lots of it. Starting soon! But I will believe it when I see it. New city announcements in a couple of days...

LOL, I think that is what Richard Anderson told the DAL pilots right before the NWA merger.

Nu

 

[NuGuy]

Would have happened by now.

It can happen right up until it's signed on the dotted line.

NWA snaked Midwest away from AirTran virtually at the last second. All my Tranny bros were all telling me I was full of it because it was "a done deal...everyone is committed".

Now the quality of that transaction is a whole other matter, but weird, last minute crap can, and does happen.

Nu

 

[coogebeachhotel]

It can happen right up until it's signed on the dotted line.

NWA snaked Midwest away from AirTran virtually at the last second. All my Tranny bros were all telling me I was full of it because it was "a done deal...everyone is committed".

Now the quality of that transaction is a whole other matter, but weird, last minute crap can, and does happen.

Nu

SWA can outbid anyone. Sorry Charlie. This is done.

 

[NuGuy]

SWA can outbid anyone. Sorry Charlie. This is done.

SWA may very well be able to outbid anyone. Doesn't mean the price has to stay the same.

It's called "Greenmailing"

Nu

 

[Mea25000]

RA has been in pdx hanging out with BA which always makes you wonder but I can only say what I have been told...

 

[coogebeachhotel]

SWA may very well be able to outbid anyone. Doesn't mean the price has to stay the same.

It's called "Greenmailing"

Nu

"Greenmailing" yeah I know what that is. This is not "Greenmail"

Greenmail or greenmailing is the practice of purchasing enough shares in a firm to threaten a takeover and thereby forcing the target firm to buy those shares back at a premium in order to suspend the takeover.

Airtran is not buying those shares back. They want to be bought

 

[igneousy2]

Would have happened by now.

How do you figure that? This has still got a long way to go. Two boards...Two groups of shareholders and one justice department. There is still plenty of time for somebody to throw a competing bid in.

 

[coogebeachhotel]

How do you figure that? This has still got a long way to go. Two boards...Two groups of shareholders and one justice department. There is still plenty of time for somebody to throw a competing bid in.

Hey Slick have you ever heard of a hostile takeover? Not that this would ever happen in this scenario.

When the homecoming queen picks the dude he can't say no.

 

[alaskaplt]

How do you figure that? This has still got a long way to go. Two boards...Two groups of shareholders and one justice department. There is still plenty of time for somebody to throw a competing bid in.

It has certainly happened plenty of times before. But who would it be? Who has the greatest interest in keeping swa from buying fl? Obviously Delta but seems unlikely they could buy a company in atl. Doj would never approve it. So who? Amr, lcc? I don't believe for a second alaska wants anything to do with that.

 

[igneousy2]

It has certainly happened plenty of times before. But who would it be? Who has the greatest interest in keeping swa from buying fl? Obviously Delta but seems unlikely they could buy a company in atl. Doj would never approve it. So who? Amr, lcc? I don't believe for a second alaska wants anything to do with that.

Thats why in my original post I said they might do it through someone else...like Alaska. Who do you think they would rather have in ATL...public enemy number 1 (SWA) or their BFF airline (AS). For example, AS makes the deal...DAL agrees to enter into a CPA of 100% of the new flying out of ATL if AS buys AAI.

As far as the justice department goes it doesn't mean they shouldn't try nor does it mean that they couldn't structure the deal in such a way to make the justice department happy...for example...they could agree to parcel out ATL, to several different airlines. Splitting up AAI's ATL operation amongst 3 or 4 different airlines would be far more desireable for Delta than having SWA have an instant hub in ATL.

Second, even if the bid fails...it is better for Delta if they can drive the price up. It's better if SWA is made to paid 2 Billion than 1.5 Billion.

I don't know what is going to happen...I just have a feeling that it is unlikely that Delta will let this go unchallenged.

 

[St. Nic]

Everybody has an opinion.

 

[Green Banana]

Just talked to one of our fearless leaders. No merging in ALK's future in any form. Growth and lots of it. Starting soon! But I will believe it when I see it. New city announcements in a couple of days...

And the growth will be......drum roll please..... replacing the old -400 with -900ER's. EXPLOSIVE growth in seats! No need for more pilots though...

 

[Truckdriver]

I don't know what is going to happen...I just have a feeling that it is unlikely that Delta will let this go unchallenged.

Delta can compete with SWA in the domestic market very easily on a cost basis these days. The only thing SWA has on us is a better attitude with agents and FA's. That may be a problem in ATL, but I don't think Delta is going to try to buy AAI or have ALK buy them just to keep SWA out.

What we will do is get the DOJ to grant the slot swap with LCC in LGA/DCA and start building up NYC more than we already have.

As far as other mergers go, look at who has no overlap and that will most likely be what happens. The DOJ will not approve a merger with significant overlap now that we are getting down to only a few airlines left. The only option DAL has is ALK or HAL. The DOJ won't let UAL go for B6, nor could they until they get the CAL/UAUA merger done.

I'm guessing you will see DAL/ALK and AMR/JBLU. Delta has been letting ALK do the majority of the flying out West for a reason and I believe that is to create a network with very little overlap so the DOJ will approve a merger. Just look at what has been going on since the DAL/NWA merger with the DAL/ALK routes out west.

Nobody wants anything to do with LCC and it would be almost impossible to fix labor issues there. The two left are Spirit and HAL. DOJ would probably prevent AMR or JBLU from going after Spirit. You might see Spirit picked up by Republic and HAL will go to whoever doesn't go for ALK.