As a Pilot/NAV OTS applicant who was just selected for NAV, I'm gonna be brave and speak up. I'll just address things quote by quote.
Jamis, just remember, if you wash out of UPT, they may send you to Nav school, however, if you wash out of Nav school, you will never go to UPT.
If you can't hack it in SUNT, then its highly unlikely you'd hack it in UPT.
Becoming a pilot after being a nav is a pipe dream for the most part. I know there are probably exceptions to what I'm saying, but I think that the whole "be a nav first and become a pilot later" is a lie recruiters try to sell.
and
Becoming a nav will do nothing but give you a slim opportunity to become a Mil pilot after about 3 years. There have been a lot of guys crossing over to go to upt but it is very competitive amongst all of the young navs, i.e. ranked #1 or #2 off of the base ect.
Again, if in your 2-3 years you aren't able to make enough of an impression to get a UPT recommendation, you probably don't have a great shot at getting a UPT slot the first time around. And I don't have exact numbers, but there have been TOO many NAVs crossing over to pilot for them to have all been the #1 or #2 guy on their base. Not only that, but after two years of being a NAV you are allowed to apply to the UPT board every year until you're age-critical (for me this will be 3-4 chances).
I have known a few active duty pilots who were prior navs, but most made the switch years ago when the military was short on pilots. Believe it or not, the USAF is actually now getting fat on pilots, after years of not being able to train them fast enough. The airline environment has become crappy enough that many folks are staying in the military. The cycle repeats itself.
First, the NAV to Pilot switch is still happening, its not a thing of the past. Second, yes the airline situation is crappy and is part of the reason why the AF is retaining pilots and has too many of them, but you provided the reason why... the cycle. There is plenty of reason to believe the airlines will pick up business again and the AF will have a greater need for pilots (not necessarily related, I realize). Guys like myself (and Jamis) wouldn't even have the chance to get to UPT until about 4-5 years down the road anyway, and no one can predict what the airline or AF pilot situation will be then.
Go in as a non-rated officer, or enlist in a guard unit. Fly general aviation planes, you'll have the money for at least some flying....It's not that being a nav is a bad job, it's just not the best way to the pilots seat.
As someone who had the opporunity to go in as an engineer and get the chance to apply to cross to pilot almost immediately, I disagree with going in doing something you REALLY wouldn't want to do while hoping for a UPT slot.
And to cap it off, the fun jobs, like EF-111 or F-4G EWO are almost all gone.
Obviously you're the expert, but don't you think C-130, B-1, and F-15 NAV/WSOs would take issue with this? Doesn't it make sense that the lowest ranked guys in SUNT are the ones that end up with the "least fun" E-3 and E-8 slots?