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Upgrade at NJ?

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jrav8tor

jrav8tor

Moonlighting!
Joined
May 2, 2002
Posts
184
Ok guys/gals, give me your best guess and/or theories of what you think will be the upgrade time at NetJets?

I know we can't predict future results based on past performances, but give us your best guess.

Just curious!

Thanks,

JR
 
4-5 years. That is if nothing crazy happens.
Now if everyone punches out after Dec of 06, well it may go down to 3-4 years. But I would not count on it.

Just my opinion.
 
I would guess 2-3 years tops. We have a lot of bypass SIC's standing in line, somewhere near 300, but in the last couple months we've seen over 50 bids come out. We plan on taking net deliveries of over 60 a/c this year as well. I believe my guess is rather conservative.
 
4-5 year upgrade for a newhire?

Fozzy:

So are you guess-timating 5 year F/Os at $48,000 per year (or whatever 5 year pay is under the new contract) in the year 2010? Hopefully not!

Could make recruiting interesting or at the least turn NJ into a type mill.
 
Pervis said:
I would guess 2-3 years tops. We have a lot of bypass SIC's standing in line, somewhere near 300, but in the last couple months we've seen over 50 bids come out. We plan on taking net deliveries of over 60 a/c this year as well. I believe my guess is rather conservative.
Click to expand...
Taking 60 aircraft, IMO, is very optimistic. You still have to sell all these aircraft shares to owners who have become more intelligent over the years in a much more competitive landscape. Everyone now wants a piece of the pie. If you are new guy with wife and kids, plan for a loooooong upgrade, only to be rewarded with an "optimistic" 3-year upgrade. Don't be going after that 3 year interest only mortgage loan. Good luck.
 
miles otoole said:
Taking 60 aircraft, IMO, is very optimistic. You still have to sell all these aircraft shares to owners who have become more intelligent over the years in a much more competitive landscape. Everyone now wants a piece of the pie. If you are new guy with wife and kids, plan for a loooooong upgrade, only to be rewarded with an "optimistic" 3-year upgrade. Don't be going after that 3 year interest only mortgage loan. Good luck.
Click to expand...

60 aircraft is actually slower than we were at our high point back in 2002. Back then we took delivery of a new aircraft on average, once every 4 days. I have the expected hiring numbers for this year, and 60 doesn't seem far off.

Griz - care to expand on proposed 2006 numbers?
 
VmaxFlyR said:
Fozzy:

So are you guess-timating 5 year F/Os at $48,000 per year (or whatever 5 year pay is under the new contract) in the year 2010? Hopefully not!

Could make recruiting interesting or at the least turn NJ into a type mill.
Click to expand...

Yup, that was my guess. Plan on 5 and if it is less, you should be excited. Though, I think 4 is more like it. But it is just a guess.
As far as recruiting goes, that is not my problem. That is DM's. And her boss's. Pay it and they will come. If not, well maybe they need to pay us more or maybe open up HBA to all. Who knows. But that is my guess.
 
VmaxFlyR said:
Fozzy:

So are you guess-timating 5 year F/Os at $48,000 per year (or whatever 5 year pay is under the new contract) in the year 2010? Hopefully not!

Could make recruiting interesting or at the least turn NJ into a type mill.
Click to expand...

I think Fozzy got it right. 4 or 5 yrs. I lean toward 5.

Yes they may have to look for relief on the FO pay or Home basing. Probably around 2 yrs from now.

Thats part of the reason I would take a look at Citation Shares. Last i heard you could upgrade in a year.
 
VmaxFlyR said:
Fozzy:

So are you guess-timating 5 year F/Os at $48,000 per year (or whatever 5 year pay is under the new contract) in the year 2010? Hopefully not!

Could make recruiting interesting or at the least turn NJ into a type mill.
Click to expand...

I actually meant to say "retention", not "recruiting".
 
miles otoole said:
Taking 60 aircraft, IMO, is very optimistic. You still have to sell all these aircraft shares to owners who have become more intelligent over the years in a much more competitive landscape. Everyone now wants a piece of the pie. If you are new guy with wife and kids, plan for a loooooong upgrade, only to be rewarded with an "optimistic" 3-year upgrade. Don't be going after that 3 year interest only mortgage loan. Good luck.
Click to expand...

According to the marketing gurus in March 2005 during company recurrent, we sold 125 airframes in 2004 while taking a net gain of 20 something. Our problem was an oversell situation which led to some major discontent among owners, since 50 or so of those were Marquis cards at 25 hrs/card. Equivalent of 1/16 shares.

Management has taken steps to limit Marquis effects, and manufacturers are finally stepping up production. We have a ways to go, but reliability has increased an average of 20-30% since the CBA. That helps as well. If the manufacturers stepped up, we'd gladly take double the projection for '06. Check out Sept '03 Aviation Week And Space Technology where a summation of NJA orders were listed. 1015 orders, and this before the announcement of 200 more. Some have gone away and some have been added, but we still plan on substantial growth in both the long and short term.

Yea, things change in time, and some older airframes will go away, like the CE650 and hawker 1000, but the owners keep coming. That's why I believe we can all benefit, as competition increases value of a product, and larger numbers make it better for all to reap the rewards, if we stand united.
 
Thanks for the input so far everyone! It certainly provides a better picture for us looking to get on.

Anyone else have any opinions?

Thanks,

JR
 
I came here with the impression of being an SIC for 5 years. If the upgrade occurs quicker, great, but if not... then I will transition to the F2000 and add that type to my list :beer:
 
notaNJApilot said:
The last group of Captain bid awards went to pilots from late 2001/early 2002.
Click to expand...

The most junior pilot to receive the latest upgrade bid has been with the company for about 4 years. However, there was at least one year in that period where there was virtually no hiring whatsoever. So, my best guess at upgrade time if future hiring continues at the present rate would be around 3 years, give or take a year.
 
psysicx said:
Isn't Falcon pay higher for newbies since there are only EX's?
Click to expand...

Good luck trying to get a Falcon EX bid. Among the other aircraft types, the Ultra and Excel newbies will actually be paid $2,700 a year more than those on the other aircraft including the Falcon 2000 and Citation X etc. This is due to the additional crossover pay received for being qualified on more that one aircraft type (Ultra/Encore & Excel/XLS).
 
The above is true assuming that you are awarded one of the dual qual slots. They are bid by senority now and you are not (at least in the Ultra/Encore) automatically given difference training - just your assigned aircraft.
 
The above is true assuming that you are awarded one of the dual qual slots. They are bid by senority now and you are not (at least in the Ultra/Encore) automatically given difference training - just your assigned aircraft.
Click to expand...

They are going to dual qualify us in the XL/XLS... however you only make the extra $225 a month if that particular month you fly an XLS. With about 30 of them here so far, there is a possibility of touching one every other month.
 
I think it's $300 per month dual/qual and you get the pay period once you are "checked out" in both types. The Ultra, for example, pays dual qual after the pilot goes through differences on the Encore. Period.
 
I asked my husband about the upgrade time and was told to plan on it taking 5 years. Anything less and you get to be pleasantly surprised. Better than being placed in a less than desirable situation if you bank on upgrading earlier than you get to. Remember there are a lot of bypass bid Captains that have to upgrade first. Sorry, I don't have the numbers to lay out here, but my husband based his answer on the equation. With all the number crunching he did for the contract, I trust him to know what he's talking about.
 
There is nothing in the contract that says anything about having to fly all the models every month that you are qualified on to get the extra $225/ month as an FO. It just says you have to be qualified to fly them. All the XL new hires are getting transition training on the XLS, but you are not dual-qualified until you do the company training and nobody has said if or when that will happen. I would guess it wouldn't be much of a wait since no more regular Excels are being made and the company is getting more XLSs. I would have to say it would only be fair to have all the more senior guys dual qualified first, but I don't know if that is the case or not.
 
The reason I asked was that NJA website said they only have the EX and someone said that people are getting hired into the 2000.
 
That is what I am wondering, are/can a new hire get the 2000EX (thus $50,000), or are they only getting the 2000 and lower (thus $39,000)? Also, is there any criteria on what aircraft you get assigned, or is it by class and need? Thanks.
 

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