Upgrade at NJ?

[jrav8tor]

Ok guys/gals, give me your best guess and/or theories of what you think will be the upgrade time at NetJets?

I know we can't predict future results based on past performances, but give us your best guess.

Just curious!

Thanks,

JR

 

[Fozzy]

4-5 years. That is if nothing crazy happens.
Now if everyone punches out after Dec of 06, well it may go down to 3-4 years. But I would not count on it.

Just my opinion.

 

[notaNJApilot]

The last group of Captain bid awards went to pilots from late 2001/early 2002.

 

[Pervis]

I would guess 2-3 years tops. We have a lot of bypass SIC's standing in line, somewhere near 300, but in the last couple months we've seen over 50 bids come out. We plan on taking net deliveries of over 60 a/c this year as well. I believe my guess is rather conservative.

 

[VmaxFlyR]

4-5 year upgrade for a newhire?

Fozzy:

So are you guess-timating 5 year F/Os at $48,000 per year (or whatever 5 year pay is under the new contract) in the year 2010? Hopefully not!

Could make recruiting interesting or at the least turn NJ into a type mill.

 

[miles otoole]

I would guess 2-3 years tops. We have a lot of bypass SIC's standing in line, somewhere near 300, but in the last couple months we've seen over 50 bids come out. We plan on taking net deliveries of over 60 a/c this year as well. I believe my guess is rather conservative.

Taking 60 aircraft, IMO, is very optimistic. You still have to sell all these aircraft shares to owners who have become more intelligent over the years in a much more competitive landscape. Everyone now wants a piece of the pie. If you are new guy with wife and kids, plan for a loooooong upgrade, only to be rewarded with an "optimistic" 3-year upgrade. Don't be going after that 3 year interest only mortgage loan. Good luck.

 

[Gpilot800]

Taking 60 aircraft, IMO, is very optimistic. You still have to sell all these aircraft shares to owners who have become more intelligent over the years in a much more competitive landscape. Everyone now wants a piece of the pie. If you are new guy with wife and kids, plan for a loooooong upgrade, only to be rewarded with an "optimistic" 3-year upgrade. Don't be going after that 3 year interest only mortgage loan. Good luck.

60 aircraft is actually slower than we were at our high point back in 2002. Back then we took delivery of a new aircraft on average, once every 4 days. I have the expected hiring numbers for this year, and 60 doesn't seem far off.

Griz - care to expand on proposed 2006 numbers?

 

[Fozzy]

Fozzy:

So are you guess-timating 5 year F/Os at $48,000 per year (or whatever 5 year pay is under the new contract) in the year 2010? Hopefully not!

Could make recruiting interesting or at the least turn NJ into a type mill.

Yup, that was my guess. Plan on 5 and if it is less, you should be excited. Though, I think 4 is more like it. But it is just a guess.
As far as recruiting goes, that is not my problem. That is DM's. And her boss's. Pay it and they will come. If not, well maybe they need to pay us more or maybe open up HBA to all. Who knows. But that is my guess.

 

[gunfyter]

Fozzy:

So are you guess-timating 5 year F/Os at $48,000 per year (or whatever 5 year pay is under the new contract) in the year 2010? Hopefully not!

Could make recruiting interesting or at the least turn NJ into a type mill.

I think Fozzy got it right. 4 or 5 yrs. I lean toward 5.

Yes they may have to look for relief on the FO pay or Home basing. Probably around 2 yrs from now.

Thats part of the reason I would take a look at Citation Shares. Last i heard you could upgrade in a year.

 

[Fozzy]

Great minds think alike.