United and Continental Talking....

[Daddy]

I'd say that due to NWA declaring chap 11 reorganization, the golden share no longer exists. The big question is ... what will it take to get UAL management to step aside and let the combined operation be run by one of the best managements in the biz.

Andy,
I tend to agree with you...I don't know why they would retain those voting rights in BK, but CNBC is reporting that they have it...I wonder if the creditors will be able to dictate their votes though....

 

[Occam's Razor]

I tend to agree with you...I don't know why they would retain those voting rights in BK, but CNBC is reporting that they have it...I wonder if the creditors will be able to dictate their votes though....

C'mon! Get real. A brief excerpt from one of 3-dozen SEC filings was posted on flightinfo where it's been analyzed by corporate governance experts.

Case closed.

Now let's get back to the cover-up of TWA 800, airplanes taking off on treadmills, and how badly we want to screw each other in a merger.

 

[Flopgut]

Patriot:

Is 01 CAL CA a real number? Or is it more of an indicator of how bad reserve is? I know ther ARE CAs with that DOH but, compare it with lineholder seniority. Furthermore, does the 01 CAL CA want to be a 2011 757 CA? Or a 2021 777 CA with a line of time? Because if we act too tough on the bottom CA seniority then UAL is going to get real tough on the widebody flying. And they will clean our plow on that.

We could exceed an unlimited budget, take years of arbitration, make a bunch of lawyers ridiculously wealthy, and if things go absolutely perfect, have a resulting combined list that looks very close to DOH with a possible wiggle on years of service. Not before we hate each other, disenfranchise the customers, disgust Wall Street, and all manner of other detriments.

Why not do this: DOH, with adjustment for years of service, no furlough clause for CAL, UAL furloughs return and bid new composite seniority number until hiring starts. And substantial hiring will start quickly IMHO, probably within a quarter. And we all enjoy the spoils of a great airline job going forward.

To a certain extent, we ALL have to view this kind of like a start up.

 

[LJDRVR]

If this deal goes down, I'm a UAL guy and I DO NOT WANT TO SEE MY CAL BROTHERS SCREWED (except the scabs ). I'm a UAL guy and I DO NOT WANT TO SEE MY UAL BROTHERS SCREWED (except the scabs ).

I agree. Hey! How about stapling the SCABS from both airlines?

I still think this is so much irresponsible media-driven hperbole. The sole ource for these news reports are still the WSJ online edition's claim of persons familiar with the situation.

 

[fatboyplt]

Flopgut,
Well put...

Birdman
BTV

 

[Tejas-Jet]

I don't see Southwest flying to Brussels anytime soon.

Thank goodness to that !!! With a 3.0 "arse", That would absolutely kill me....

Tejas

 

[Andy]

Is 01 CAL CA a real number? Or is it more of an indicator of how bad reserve is?

The 01 CAL CA is about 1/3 up the seniority list. We had two year CAs at UAL back in 2000.

 

[Patriot328]

Patriot:

Is 01 CAL CA a real number? Or is it more of an indicator of how bad reserve is? I know ther ARE CAs with that DOH but, compare it with lineholder seniority. Furthermore, does the 01 CAL CA want to be a 2011 757 CA? Or a 2021 777 CA with a line of time? Because if we act too tough on the bottom CA seniority then UAL is going to get real tough on the widebody flying. And they will clean our plow on that.

We could exceed an unlimited budget, take years of arbitration, make a bunch of lawyers ridiculously wealthy, and if things go absolutely perfect, have a resulting combined list that looks very close to DOH with a possible wiggle on years of service. Not before we hate each other, disenfranchise the customers, disgust Wall Street, and all manner of other detriments.

Why not do this: DOH, with adjustment for years of service, no furlough clause for CAL, UAL furloughs return and bid new composite seniority number until hiring starts. And substantial hiring will start quickly IMHO, probably within a quarter. And we all enjoy the spoils of a great airline job going forward.

To a certain extent, we ALL have to view this kind of like a start up.

It doesn't matter why there are '01 DOH CAs here (RSV sucks and for god sake, we're talking Newark here), doing a DOH (or even a quasi DOH with wiggle room) would be screwing over a solid 25% of CAL's seniority list.

DOH and I go from about 4200 out of 4800, which is the bottom 13% and moving up very rapidly due to 5-6% of the pilots retiring each year, to 12900 out of 13500, which is the bottom 4% of the combine seniority list of an airline whose pilots are retiring at 2.5% a year. Double the size, half the retirement rate.. sounds like a great plan.

 

[Andy]

DOH and I go from about 4200 out of 4800, which is the bottom 13% and moving up very rapidly due to 5-6% of the pilots retiring each year, to 12900 out of 13500, which is the bottom 4% of the combine seniority list of an airline whose pilots are retiring at 2.5% a year. Double the size, half the retirement rate.. sounds like a great plan.

UAL's seniority list in Jul 06 had 8655. Subtract 655 for those that will never return from furlough.
2006 141 = 1.8% Jul-Dec 06
2007 263 = 3.3%
2008 234 = 2.9%
2009 231 = 2.9%
2010 201 = 2.5%
2011 167 = 2.1%
2012 228 = 2.9%
2013 245 = 3.1%
2014 237 = 2.9%
2015 270 = 3.4%
2016 331 = 4.1%
2017 307 = 3.8%
2018 381 = 4.8%
2019 355 = 4.4%
2020 463 = 5.8%
2021 506 = 6.3%
2022 506 = 6.3%
2023 575 = 7.2%
2024 574 = 7.2%
2025 538 = 6.7%

CAL, percentages assume 4800 on property
2007: 313 = 6.5%
2008: 241 = 5.0%
2009: 215 = 4.5%
2010: 209 = 4.4%
2011: 218 = 4.5%
2012: 218 = 4.5%
2013: 191 = 4.0%
2014: 202 = 4.2%
2015: 171 = 3.6%
2016: 189 = 3.9%
2017: 180 = 3.8%
2018: 179 = 3.7%
2019: 151 = 3.1%
2020: 146 = 3.0%
2021: 151 = 3.1%
2022: 150 = 3.1%
2023: 178 = 3.7%
2024: 125 = 2.6%
2025: 135 = 2.8%

Let's suppose that the merger were announced tomorrow. It would likely not be until 2009 (at the earliest) before we saw seniority lists integrated.
Year UAL CAL
2009 2.9% 4.5%
2010 2.5% 4.4%
2011 2.1% 4.5%
2012 2.9% 4.5%
2013 3.1% 4.0%
2014 2.9% 4.2%
2015 3.4% 3.6%
2016 4.1% 3.9%
2017 3.8% 3.8%
2018 4.8% 3.7%
2019 4.4% 3.1%
2020 5.8% 3.0%
2021 6.3% 3.1%
2022 6.3% 3.1%
2023 7.2% 3.7%
2024 7.2% 2.6%
2025 6.7% 2.8%

 

[Patriot328]

......

Thank you for the numbers Andy. Must more precise than my eyeballing it. Looks like CAL's retirements (and seniority movement) are frontloaded while UAL's are farther down the line, to some degree. 2016 seems to be the turning point.