HHmmm, you might be on to something or you could be dead wrong?? I don't know the answer. I suspect we'll know in the next five years or so. Having been a member of the IACP I do remember a great deal of consternation regarding the unions ability to raise enough funds to negotiate and enforce a reasonable contract.
I think the next large defection from ALPA (UAL or CAL would be my top two guesses) will lead to a landslide of carriers abandoning ALPA in favor of independent unions. This is only my opinion. I firmly believe that the bottom 1/3rd of just about every major pilot group is seething with animosity regarding what age 65 has done and it's obvious culpability in creating furloughs. ALPA could sure use a victory. If they are successful in changing the duty/rest regs in favor of crews I think they will have steadied the masses for a while.
At the same time, an ancillary glance at the landscape would reveal that the most envied pilot contracts at present have been negotiated by independent unions. SWA pilots are prospering, AA pilots have managed to maintain reasonable QOL despite their companies earnings. I'm not sure what the future holds but I don't think ALPA will survive another major catastrophe. I've got plenty of issues with ALPA but I'm still convinced it's the way forward for now (at least where I sit).