The following is from one of UAL ALPA Council E-mail updates.
October 14, 2003
"Tuesday’s MEC meeting opened with a presentation from Bruce Simon concerning bankruptcy. He explained that the creditor’s committee will become more involved as we move closer to exiting bankruptcy. The company is now working on their final business plan. It must receive the approval of the Creditor’s Committee before moving on to the ATSB. As we do get closer to exit, more external forces come into play. There will be rumors in the press, politics from DC, pressure from other airlines against ATSB, disinformation, ATSB won’t approve it, etc. Mr. Simon wants to emphasize that these rumors will be major distractions.
A question was asked to Mr. Simon was what happens to the current UAL stock when we exit bankruptcy? His answer was that the current UAL (now symbol: UALAQ) stock will be worth zero."
Just make sure if you trade this stock that you know for sure the exact date that they exit bankruptcy!!!!
Even though it is cheap now I would not consider buying the stock until after they (UAL) have exited bankruptcy.
Previously I thought USAirways was a steal at $0.18 per share while they were in bankruptcy so I bought 1,000 shares for $180 when I heard that they were close to exiting bankruptcy. My fantasies of becoming a multi-gazillionair over night were shattered when several people including a few stock brokers told me that there was only about a 5% chance that the stock would be worth anything after USAirways emerged from bankruptcy so I sold the stock at $0.12 per share and took the small loss.
It seemed like a good idea at the time but I did learn a good lesson from this whole deal.
The only way your UAL stock will be worth anything after they emerge from bankruptcy is if ALL creditors are paid first. Then if UAL management, the bankruptcy judge and their new creditors (the ones who will supply there exit financing) agree there is enough money left over to pay the shareholders.
With their pension problems the way they are, UAL stock has about a .0001% chance of being worth anything after it exits from bankruptcy. Shareholders are the last ones to get paid. There might be some money for prefered shareholders, but I dought it.
There is a reason why the market has made it a penny stock. A lot of times with these stocks, traders buy and sell them for quick gains knowing that in the near future the stock will be worthless.
(This shows I'm dumb) - I bought 150 shares of UALAQ awhile ago with the premise that it was just a gamble, not an investment. If it were an investment I'd have bought more to cover the brokers fees.
However, I did this on the assumption that upon exiting bankruptcy I would still own stock in UAL Corp, regardless of their financial shape (unless, of course, they went chapter 7 and liquidated).
If they emerge successfully from bankruptcy, don't I still own 150sh of UAL corp? Granted, it might take awhile for the creditors to be paid off, but like I said, I wanted to gamble $100 on something more interesting than a Vegas blackjack table.
No. The shares you own are "old" UAL stock and their value is worthless. The "new" shares with open with a new strike price and trade on the open market (either NYSE or NASDAQ). Basically you own some of the most expensive toliet paper ever used.
One tip to all pilots/investors: Do not invest in airline stocks! Look at the balance sheets and 10k reports. Way too much outside pressure on the business model to make a sure profit. (ie. fuel prices, terrorism, government regulation, labor strikes)
Except for SWA stock. It has done incredibly well for 30 years. All airlines are gambles, but if there is an airline stock to invest in, its SWA. (LUV)
JBLU is still a little rich for my blood at +$60/share, Luv is a safe bet, but not the best bet for enhanced returns. Thanks to all for supporting UAL just enough to keep them floating, it really helped make this Christmas season a prosperous one.
I wish you all could have seen the face of a guy I flew with this last summer. He was so happy because he bought a ton of UAL stock for pennies on the......well pennies. He thought he was going to make a killing and retire when UAL pulls out of bankruptcy. When I told him that the stock would more than likely be worthless I think his jaw dropped all the way to the ground from FL310.
When AWA went came out of bankruptcy the shareholders of the old stock got 10% of the number of shares in the new stock. For example: If you owned 10,000 shares of the old stock you were given 1,000 shares of the new stock. Still haven't made my money back on that one!
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