UAL hiring ???

[DeskFlyer]

UALX727, good post...well at least an optimistic post! But I certainly like reading anything that is optimistic. It's good to see you chime in. I've sort of thought about this at length too. I've also mentally projected, just as you have done, with the retirements. BUT, there's one BIG fly that I found in this ointment to your/my hopeful projections. UAL will push hard for "increased productivity" with the remaining pilot group that's still on the property. I've seen no shyness from some of those willing to pick up (AND JUSTIFY) extra time. This will certainly have an impact on the magnitude and time frame of any recalls. I believe that the recovery plan will hinge upon extracting more time, at current payrates, for the remaining pilot group. What do you think? In an overly simplistic fashion, and assuming that the UAL pilot force will be reduced (due to attrition) another 8% (apprx 800 pilots), in the next 24 months, then all you have to do is increase the avg hours worked by a similarly increasing percentage.
75 hours = 81 hours. 81 hours = 87.48 hours. In this fashion, UAL could effectively not change any hourly pay rate (satisfy the "NO concessions" stance), and yet increase their productivity to surpass that amount required as pilot attrition acrues. I have a feeling that that's what "they're" planning on doing. I hope it doesn't turn out this way, and I'd rather go with your previous assumptions. HANG IN THERE!!!!!!!!

 

[Zarathustra]

"I've seen no shyness from some of those willing to pick up (AND JUSTIFY) extra time."

The SSC has reported that last month less than 50 hours of overtime was picked up throughout the entire system. That's 2/3 of a pilot on the street, but when you consider 9500 some pilots, this is still a pilot group that looks after its own.

Basically you've got some guys in their last three, and it's hard to argue with that.

I've seen a lot more furloughees here recently. Does everyone have access to the Compuserve UAL ALPA board? There's a lot of stuff going on over there. If not, I can get you the e-mail of the sysop.

God save the ball!

 

[DeskFlyer]

Zarathustra,

If that's the only amount of "extra time" that's being picked up, then I'd say that it sounds like furloughees are in good shape on that one. Thanks for posting that information. Any sort of news like that is encouraging!

DF

 

[UALX727]

Deskflyer, very good point. I definitely could see how productivity gains given to the company could keep the furloughees out MUCH longer than I originally forecast. I hope that any "recovery plan" doesn't go in that direction.

I'm sure that when the talks begin, the company will try for this. However, I just cannot see how UAL ALPA would go for the idea without strings attached.....especially with pilots illegally furloughed by the company still out on the street. I think the only way UAL ALPA will go for the idea is that it be tied to some kind of recall of all United furloughees.......at least I hope so.

Maybe something like raising the guarantee 5 hours a month starting ONLY when the last furloughee is recalled. I'm sure there are many other scenarios that could be looked at. Otherwise, like you say, it will only keep us out that much longer.

 

[furloughed]

Yeah, thats exactly what happened with "Blue Skies" back in 1981. United agreed to make the pilots the highest paid in the industry but they had to give up most of the work and productivity rules in order to get it and they took it. It kept all the furloughees out until the company became desperate and needed these pilots back in 1984-85 hoping they would cross the picket line when the company attempted to break the union. Lets hope history does not repeat itself.

 

[banned username 1]

Good thinking, guys and all very insightful.

Sometimes though, you gotta go with your gut. I'll go with mine (it's one of the biggest things I have) and reason that true, you cut fleets like they did and it makes for too many pilots, but we still have LOTS of guys retiring in the next few years. Loads are up and we can put an hour or two more of utilization on the airframes we have now when the time comes. True to form and history, UAL has again overreacted.

I'll take the C-note bet and go with the gut. Recalls sometime in '03. They're not going to let AA or anybody else grab market share in a big way.

PS. have a little faith in your buddies still working.

 

[DeskFlyer]

UAL78!!!!!!!! GREAT to see you on the board!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Okay, we'll all have to take you up on the C note bet...03 hmmmm. Well time's clicking away, so we're edging closer and closer to getting through 02 with 03 around the corner. Hope you're right about UAL willing to aggressively defend market share. But it's no longer AMR that they're going to have to defend against, it's Frontier, AK, Horizon, and now I hear NWA, not to mention SWA's continual assault. I know UAL can do it...just need the right leadership to make it happen. Creighton appears to be engaged with his heart in the right place.

DF